Florida International
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.6#122
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#186
Pace84.2#11
Improvement+1.7#22

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#74
First Shot+1.2#136
After Offensive Rebound+2.8#54
Layup/Dunks+2.8#84
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#350
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#25
Freethrows-1.9#281
Improvement+1.5#29

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#208
First Shot+1.3#129
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#307
Layups/Dunks+0.7#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#218
Freethrows-0.9#225
Improvement+0.2#142
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.9% 12.2% 6.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 14.1
.500 or above 81.8% 86.4% 65.5%
.500 or above in Conference 77.4% 79.8% 68.6%
Conference Champion 13.8% 15.2% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.9% 4.3%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round10.8% 12.1% 6.2%
Second Round1.8% 2.0% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Neutral) - 78.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 34 - 35 - 8
Quad 411 - 216 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 50   @ Mississippi St. L 69-77 18%     0 - 1 +4.5 +4.4 -0.1
  Nov 13, 2019 39   @ North Carolina St. L 77-86 14%     0 - 2 +5.4 +2.6 +3.6
  Nov 19, 2019 344   @ Cleveland St. W 107-61 89%     1 - 2 +35.2 +16.7 +13.3
  Nov 22, 2019 267   Eastern Kentucky W 96-88 78%    
  Nov 23, 2019 280   UNC Wilmington W 90-81 81%    
  Nov 30, 2019 320   New Hampshire W 86-70 93%    
  Dec 04, 2019 288   Florida Gulf Coast W 85-73 87%    
  Dec 07, 2019 330   @ Kennesaw St. W 85-74 84%    
  Dec 22, 2019 337   @ Stetson W 86-74 86%    
  Dec 28, 2019 73   @ Minnesota L 75-82 25%    
  Jan 02, 2020 131   UTEP W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 04, 2020 216   Texas San Antonio W 91-82 78%    
  Jan 09, 2020 151   @ North Texas L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 11, 2020 201   @ Rice W 91-89 57%    
  Jan 16, 2020 186   UAB W 80-73 74%    
  Jan 18, 2020 196   Middle Tennessee W 87-79 75%    
  Jan 23, 2020 130   @ Old Dominion L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 25, 2020 214   @ Charlotte W 75-73 58%    
  Jan 30, 2020 233   Marshall W 93-83 80%    
  Feb 01, 2020 77   Western Kentucky L 81-82 47%    
  Feb 05, 2020 183   Florida Atlantic W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 08, 2020 183   @ Florida Atlantic W 78-77 54%    
  Feb 13, 2020 89   @ Louisiana Tech L 75-81 30%    
  Feb 15, 2020 236   @ Southern Miss W 77-73 62%    
Projected Record 15 - 9 8 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.4 4.0 4.9 2.7 0.7 13.8 1st
2nd 0.0 1.6 5.4 5.1 1.5 0.1 13.7 2nd
3rd 0.9 5.3 5.5 1.3 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.1 3.8 6.0 1.6 0.1 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 5.9 2.2 0.1 9.6 5th
6th 0.2 4.4 3.6 0.2 0.0 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 4.6 0.8 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.3 3.8 1.8 0.1 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 1.5 3.3 0.2 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.1 0.0 3.9 10th
11th 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.1 3.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 2.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 3.5 6.2 10.2 12.6 15.0 15.4 14.0 10.4 6.4 2.8 0.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
13-1 97.3% 2.7    2.3 0.4 0.0
12-2 76.7% 4.9    2.8 1.8 0.3 0.0
11-3 38.1% 4.0    1.2 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-4 9.9% 1.4    0.2 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1
9-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-6 0.0%
7-7 0.0%
Total 13.8% 13.8 7.3 4.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0 0.7% 50.2% 43.9% 6.3% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 11.3%
13-1 2.8% 37.8% 36.6% 1.3% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.7 2.0%
12-2 6.4% 29.1% 29.0% 0.1% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.6 0.1%
11-3 10.4% 21.7% 21.7% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 8.2
10-4 14.0% 15.9% 15.9% 13.8 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.0 11.8
9-5 15.4% 9.7% 9.7% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.0 13.9
8-6 15.0% 6.4% 6.4% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 14.1
7-7 12.6% 2.9% 2.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 12.2
6-8 10.2% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 10.0
5-9 6.2% 1.1% 1.1% 15.6 0.0 0.0 6.1
4-10 3.5% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 3.4
3-11 1.9% 1.9
2-12 0.6% 0.6
1-13 0.2% 0.2
0-14 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.9% 10.8% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.1 3.3 1.9 0.4 89.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 7.8 4.8 32.1 6.0 11.9 7.1 4.8 7.1 6.0 20.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 17.4% 11.3 13.0 4.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 27.3% 11.3 22.7 4.5