Florida International
Conference USA
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#163
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#167
Pace82.8#10
Improvement-1.2#231

Offense
Total Offense+1.7#135
First Shot+0.2#175
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#74
Layup/Dunks+1.1#122
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#346
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.2#35
Freethrows-1.5#287
Improvement+0.4#153

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#201
First Shot+1.3#120
After Offensive Rebounds-2.6#344
Layups/Dunks-1.3#231
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#159
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#90
Freethrows+0.2#176
Improvement-1.7#273
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.1% 5.6% 2.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 83.5% 87.3% 63.5%
.500 or above in Conference 76.3% 81.3% 50.7%
Conference Champion 3.4% 3.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 1.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.1% 5.6% 2.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Home) - 83.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 34 - 44 - 9
Quad 410 - 214 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 49   @ Mississippi St. L 69-77 13%     0 - 1 +4.6 +3.4 +1.0
  Nov 13, 2019 42   @ North Carolina St. L 77-86 11%     0 - 2 +4.7 +1.0 +4.5
  Nov 19, 2019 308   @ Cleveland St. W 107-61 74%     1 - 2 +39.7 +20.2 +14.3
  Nov 22, 2019 323   Eastern Kentucky W 89-70 84%     2 - 2 +8.9 -1.0 +7.1
  Nov 23, 2019 321   UNC Wilmington L 63-66 84%     2 - 3 -13.0 -19.3 +6.6
  Nov 30, 2019 299   New Hampshire W 70-69 85%     3 - 3 -9.9 -7.3 -2.7
  Dec 04, 2019 303   Florida Gulf Coast W 71-53 86%     4 - 3 +6.7 -9.9 +15.1
  Dec 07, 2019 346   @ Kennesaw St. W 84-81 87%     5 - 3 -9.0 -3.0 -6.4
  Dec 22, 2019 320   @ Stetson W 83-67 76%     6 - 3 +9.0 +4.9 +3.8
  Dec 28, 2019 35   @ Minnesota L 62-89 10%     6 - 4 -12.5 -13.5 +4.6
  Jan 02, 2020 147   UTEP W 69-67 58%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +0.4 -1.0 +1.4
  Jan 04, 2020 177   Texas San Antonio W 90-83 OT 65%     8 - 4 2 - 0 +3.5 -5.3 +7.4
  Jan 09, 2020 94   @ North Texas L 56-74 23%     8 - 5 2 - 1 -10.0 -11.8 +1.3
  Jan 11, 2020 219   @ Rice L 78-92 54%     8 - 6 2 - 2 -14.6 -0.7 -13.2
  Jan 16, 2020 174   UAB W 93-68 64%     9 - 6 3 - 2 +21.6 +24.8 -1.9
  Jan 18, 2020 284   Middle Tennessee W 85-75 84%    
  Jan 23, 2020 170   @ Old Dominion L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 25, 2020 171   @ Charlotte L 70-72 42%    
  Jan 30, 2020 158   Marshall W 86-83 60%    
  Feb 01, 2020 111   Western Kentucky L 80-81 48%    
  Feb 05, 2020 178   Florida Atlantic W 78-74 64%    
  Feb 08, 2020 178   @ Florida Atlantic L 75-77 43%    
  Feb 13, 2020 86   @ Louisiana Tech L 73-82 20%    
  Feb 15, 2020 278   @ Southern Miss W 77-73 64%    
Projected Record 14 - 10 8 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference USA Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.7 0.4 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 2.0 4.4 1.1 0.0 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.9 6.7 3.1 0.1 10.8 3rd
4th 0.1 5.4 7.1 0.5 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 1.5 9.8 2.2 0.0 13.5 5th
6th 0.1 6.2 6.0 0.1 12.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 8.7 1.2 0.0 11.4 7th
8th 0.2 4.6 4.7 0.1 9.6 8th
9th 1.1 5.7 0.9 7.6 9th
10th 0.2 2.7 2.4 0.1 5.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 2.2 0.4 3.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
Total 0.2 2.0 6.6 14.8 22.1 23.4 18.2 9.2 2.9 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1
12-2 95.3% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
11-3 57.8% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
10-4 12.6% 1.2    0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0
9-5 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
8-6 0.0% 0.0    0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1
12-2 0.4% 20.4% 20.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-3 2.9% 17.2% 17.2% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.4
10-4 9.2% 11.4% 11.4% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 8.2
9-5 18.2% 8.7% 8.7% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.1 16.7
8-6 23.4% 4.7% 4.7% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 22.3
7-7 22.1% 2.3% 2.3% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 21.6
6-8 14.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.6 0.1 0.1 14.6
5-9 6.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 6.5
4-10 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-11 0.2% 0.2
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.3 0.7 94.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 12.8 37.2 41.9 20.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%
Lose Out 0.2%