Minnesota
Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#38
Expected Predictive Rating+9.6#56
Pace66.0#268
Improvement+2.8#58

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#18
First Shot+4.8#48
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#17
Layup/Dunks+4.5#34
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#299
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#85
Freethrows+0.5#135
Improvement+4.9#8

Defense
Total Defense+3.6#82
First Shot+3.7#74
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#176
Layups/Dunks-0.8#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.8#93
Freethrows+1.5#85
Improvement-2.1#282
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.6% 6.1% 1.4%
Top 6 Seed 11.2% 21.1% 7.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 40.6% 59.4% 33.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 38.8% 57.6% 31.8%
Average Seed 7.9 7.4 8.2
.500 or above 64.5% 81.1% 58.2%
.500 or above in Conference 54.1% 73.6% 46.7%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.9% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four4.4% 4.5% 4.4%
First Round38.6% 57.5% 31.5%
Second Round22.4% 34.5% 17.8%
Sweet Sixteen8.8% 14.1% 6.7%
Elite Eight3.7% 6.1% 2.8%
Final Four1.4% 2.4% 1.1%
Championship Game0.5% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.2% 0.3% 0.1%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 27.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 93 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 12
Quad 24 - 310 - 15
Quad 33 - 013 - 15
Quad 43 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 313   Cleveland St. W 85-50 98%     1 - 0 +22.9 +7.0 +15.6
  Nov 09, 2019 47   Oklahoma L 62-71 54%     1 - 1 +1.4 -7.1 +8.6
  Nov 12, 2019 18   @ Butler L 56-64 30%     1 - 2 +8.9 -5.4 +13.9
  Nov 15, 2019 115   @ Utah L 69-73 68%     1 - 3 +2.7 -1.7 +4.2
  Nov 21, 2019 187   Central Michigan W 82-57 92%     2 - 3 +21.0 +1.6 +18.4
  Nov 24, 2019 238   North Dakota W 79-56 95%     3 - 3 +15.8 -1.9 +16.9
  Nov 29, 2019 60   DePaul L 68-73 71%     3 - 4 +0.6 +4.1 -4.0
  Dec 02, 2019 70   Clemson W 78-60 74%     4 - 4 +22.7 +20.1 +4.7
  Dec 09, 2019 16   @ Iowa L 52-72 29%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -2.8 -11.7 +7.3
  Dec 15, 2019 13   Ohio St. W 84-71 48%     5 - 5 1 - 1 +24.8 +14.1 +10.3
  Dec 21, 2019 68   Oklahoma St. W 86-66 64%     6 - 5 +27.7 +20.2 +7.6
  Dec 28, 2019 152   Florida International W 89-62 89%     7 - 5 +24.8 +1.9 +19.4
  Jan 02, 2020 20   @ Purdue L 78-83 2OT 31%     7 - 6 1 - 2 +11.6 +6.1 +6.1
  Jan 05, 2020 103   Northwestern W 77-68 82%     8 - 6 2 - 2 +10.8 +10.0 +1.3
  Jan 09, 2020 4   @ Michigan St. L 58-74 18%     8 - 7 2 - 3 +4.9 -1.8 +5.6
  Jan 12, 2020 22   Michigan W 75-67 54%     9 - 7 3 - 3 +18.5 +15.2 +4.2
  Jan 15, 2020 30   Penn St. W 75-69 57%     10 - 7 4 - 3 +15.4 +12.7 +3.2
  Jan 19, 2020 31   @ Rutgers L 56-64 36%     10 - 8 4 - 4 +7.0 +9.0 -4.1
  Jan 23, 2020 13   @ Ohio St. L 65-71 27%    
  Jan 26, 2020 4   Michigan St. L 71-75 37%    
  Jan 30, 2020 34   @ Illinois L 69-72 38%    
  Feb 05, 2020 24   Wisconsin W 63-62 55%    
  Feb 08, 2020 30   @ Penn St. L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 16, 2020 16   Iowa L 75-76 50%    
  Feb 19, 2020 41   Indiana W 71-68 63%    
  Feb 23, 2020 103   @ Northwestern W 69-65 63%    
  Feb 26, 2020 7   Maryland L 66-68 43%    
  Mar 01, 2020 24   @ Wisconsin L 60-65 34%    
  Mar 04, 2020 41   @ Indiana L 68-70 41%    
  Mar 08, 2020 121   Nebraska W 79-68 85%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 6.2 3rd
4th 0.0 2.4 4.0 0.4 0.0 6.8 4th
5th 0.6 5.6 1.6 0.0 7.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.6 5.3 0.3 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 7.3 2.0 0.0 10.2 7th
8th 0.1 3.8 6.1 0.2 10.3 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 7.2 2.3 0.0 11.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 5.1 5.6 0.3 11.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 3.0 5.9 1.5 0.0 10.8 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.2 2.0 0.1 8.8 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.3 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.2 8.1 14.6 19.1 20.2 15.9 10.3 5.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 92.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0
15-5 76.5% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 39.8% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
13-7 8.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 2.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.5% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.8% 100.0% 9.6% 90.4% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 5.3% 99.5% 9.3% 90.2% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5%
12-8 10.3% 96.9% 7.0% 89.9% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.0 2.8 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.7%
11-9 15.9% 81.2% 3.9% 77.4% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.3 2.7 2.3 1.4 0.1 3.0 80.5%
10-10 20.2% 40.8% 1.9% 38.9% 9.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.3 1.7 2.7 0.6 12.0 39.7%
9-11 19.1% 7.7% 1.3% 6.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 17.6 6.5%
8-12 14.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.6% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 14.3 0.6%
7-13 8.1% 0.4% 0.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 8.1
6-14 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.2
5-15 0.9% 0.2% 0.2% 14.0 0.0 0.9
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 40.6% 2.9% 37.7% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 3.5 5.1 6.3 7.4 5.2 4.5 4.9 1.0 0.0 0.0 59.4 38.8%