Fresno St.
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#159
Expected Predictive Rating-5.6#259
Pace61.6#336
Improvement-1.7#248

Offense
Total Offense+0.8#160
First Shot-2.6#264
After Offensive Rebound+3.3#13
Layup/Dunks-3.7#313
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#77
Freethrows-0.3#193
Improvement-1.5#257

Defense
Total Defense-0.5#178
First Shot-1.4#210
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#101
Layups/Dunks+3.0#67
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#323
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#249
Freethrows+0.2#179
Improvement-0.2#195
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.5 15.8
.500 or above 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 7.5% 14.5% 2.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 0.6% 3.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Away) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 21 - 51 - 10
Quad 33 - 74 - 17
Quad 46 - 310 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 17   @ Oregon L 57-71 7%     0 - 1 +2.9 -9.1 +11.9
  Nov 10, 2019 127   Winthrop W 77-74 53%     1 - 1 +2.4 +7.1 -4.6
  Nov 12, 2019 200   @ San Diego L 66-72 OT 49%     1 - 2 -5.6 -11.8 +7.0
  Nov 20, 2019 36   St. Mary's L 58-68 15%     1 - 3 +1.6 +3.4 -4.4
  Nov 30, 2019 260   @ Cal St. Northridge L 72-73 61%     1 - 4 -3.6 +1.8 -5.5
  Dec 04, 2019 124   UNLV L 80-81 2OT 52%     1 - 5 0 - 1 -1.2 +1.8 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2019 55   @ Utah St. L 70-77 OT 13%     1 - 6 0 - 2 +5.3 -2.4 +8.3
  Dec 11, 2019 168   @ California L 63-69 41%     1 - 7 -3.4 +3.3 -7.6
  Dec 14, 2019 327   @ Cal Poly W 62-37 77%     2 - 7 +17.5 -8.0 +27.7
  Dec 20, 2019 317   IUPUI W 95-64 88%     3 - 7 +18.6 +13.6 +4.9
  Dec 23, 2019 100   San Francisco L 69-71 43%     3 - 8 -0.1 -1.4 +1.2
  Dec 28, 2019 235   UC Riverside L 57-60 76%     3 - 9 -10.2 -9.2 -1.4
  Jan 01, 2020 14   @ San Diego St. L 52-61 7%     3 - 10 0 - 3 +8.3 -6.5 +13.9
  Jan 04, 2020 288   San Jose St. W 79-64 83%     4 - 10 1 - 3 +4.9 +7.3 -1.2
  Jan 07, 2020 125   @ New Mexico L 64-78 30%     4 - 11 1 - 4 -8.4 -7.2 -1.6
  Jan 14, 2020 14   San Diego St. L 55-64 15%     4 - 12 1 - 5 +2.4 -4.3 +5.6
  Jan 18, 2020 282   @ Wyoming W 65-50 65%     5 - 12 2 - 5 +11.3 +7.6 +7.0
  Jan 22, 2020 104   @ Colorado St. L 68-86 24%     5 - 13 2 - 6 -10.5 +1.9 -13.3
  Jan 25, 2020 91   Boise St. L 53-87 40%     5 - 14 2 - 7 -31.1 -17.2 -15.3
  Jan 28, 2020 170   @ Air Force L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 01, 2020 125   New Mexico W 73-72 52%    
  Feb 04, 2020 104   Colorado St. L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 08, 2020 124   @ UNLV L 64-69 30%    
  Feb 12, 2020 288   @ San Jose St. W 72-67 66%    
  Feb 15, 2020 55   Utah St. L 63-69 28%    
  Feb 19, 2020 170   Air Force W 72-68 62%    
  Feb 22, 2020 89   @ Nevada L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 29, 2020 282   Wyoming W 66-56 82%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.2 0.5 0.7 4th
5th 0.2 1.2 0.7 2.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.5 3.1 0.2 6.1 6th
7th 0.2 3.8 7.1 1.3 12.4 7th
8th 1.0 8.9 14.7 4.2 0.1 28.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 13.4 14.3 3.7 0.1 34.3 9th
10th 0.2 2.6 6.3 4.6 0.8 0.0 14.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.4 3.0 9.1 19.0 24.3 22.5 14.1 5.9 1.5 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.2% 7.0% 7.0% 13.0 0.0 0.2
10-8 1.5% 2.7% 2.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 1.5
9-9 5.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.1 0.1 0.0 5.8
8-10 14.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.0
7-11 22.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.9 0.0 0.1 22.4
6-12 24.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 24.2
5-13 19.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 19.0
4-14 9.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.0
3-15 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%