Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#163
Expected Predictive Rating-3.4#224
Pace71.5#134
Improvement-0.4#236

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#126
First Shot+3.6#77
After Offensive Rebound-2.0#271
Layup/Dunks-4.5#302
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#39
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#147
Freethrows+3.3#43
Improvement-1.0#312

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#217
First Shot-4.0#285
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#54
Layups/Dunks+1.6#133
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#310
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#141
Freethrows-3.5#315
Improvement+0.6#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 8.7% 5.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 32.2% 47.6% 25.1%
.500 or above in Conference 44.7% 54.7% 40.1%
Conference Champion 6.9% 10.3% 5.4%
Last Place in Conference 16.3% 11.1% 18.7%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round6.2% 8.6% 5.1%
Second Round0.6% 1.1% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Duquesne (Neutral) - 31.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 36 - 87 - 15
Quad 46 - 213 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 64   @ Dayton L 81-86 14%     0 - 1 +6.5 +8.2 -1.5
  Nov 13, 2019 4   @ Louisville L 62-91 3%     0 - 2 -6.5 +0.4 -7.7
  Nov 17, 2019 89   Ball St. L 55-69 29%     0 - 3 -8.6 -10.0 +0.4
  Nov 21, 2019 97   Duquesne L 71-76 32%    
  Nov 22, 2019 169   Loyola Marymount W 68-67 51%    
  Nov 24, 2019 173   Air Force W 73-72 52%    
  Dec 03, 2019 166   North Dakota St. W 73-70 61%    
  Dec 07, 2019 108   @ Wright St. L 73-80 27%    
  Dec 18, 2019 243   Tennessee St. W 79-72 74%    
  Dec 22, 2019 353   Chicago St. W 89-66 98%    
  Dec 30, 2019 226   Southern Illinois W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 04, 2020 128   @ Drake L 73-78 32%    
  Jan 07, 2020 103   @ Northern Iowa L 63-71 24%    
  Jan 11, 2020 162   Illinois St. W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 15, 2020 135   Evansville W 74-73 54%    
  Jan 18, 2020 174   @ Valparaiso L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 22, 2020 127   @ Loyola Chicago L 67-72 32%    
  Jan 25, 2020 113   Bradley L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 29, 2020 128   Drake W 76-75 52%    
  Feb 01, 2020 120   @ Missouri St. L 66-72 31%    
  Feb 05, 2020 127   Loyola Chicago W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 08, 2020 162   @ Illinois St. L 70-73 40%    
  Feb 12, 2020 113   @ Bradley L 67-73 30%    
  Feb 16, 2020 120   Missouri St. W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 20, 2020 103   Northern Iowa L 66-68 45%    
  Feb 23, 2020 135   @ Evansville L 71-76 33%    
  Feb 26, 2020 226   @ Southern Illinois W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 29, 2020 174   Valparaiso W 76-72 62%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 8 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 6.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.9 2.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 7.7 2nd
3rd 0.4 2.6 3.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 8.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.4 5.1 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 10.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.8 3.4 0.4 0.0 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.2 5.2 3.5 0.6 11.9 8th
9th 0.2 0.9 3.2 4.2 3.0 0.7 0.0 12.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 1.8 3.1 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.0 10.2 10th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.0 6.3 8.0 10.8 11.2 12.1 11.6 10.4 8.0 6.1 4.1 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 98.6% 0.6    0.6 0.0
15-3 95.1% 1.3    1.1 0.2
14-4 71.8% 1.8    1.2 0.5 0.0
13-5 42.4% 1.7    0.7 0.8 0.2
12-6 17.5% 1.1    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 6.9% 6.9 3.9 2.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 75.0% 25.0% 50.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7%
17-1 0.1% 47.1% 35.6% 11.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.9%
16-2 0.6% 37.8% 36.4% 1.4% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2.2%
15-3 1.4% 30.3% 29.7% 0.6% 12.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.9%
14-4 2.5% 25.1% 24.8% 0.3% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9 0.4%
13-5 4.1% 17.5% 17.5% 13.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.3
12-6 6.1% 14.2% 14.2% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 5.2
11-7 8.0% 10.4% 10.4% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 7.2
10-8 10.4% 7.4% 7.4% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 9.6
9-9 11.6% 6.3% 6.3% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 10.8
8-10 12.1% 4.7% 4.7% 14.8 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 11.5
7-11 11.2% 2.0% 2.0% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 11.0
6-12 10.8% 1.3% 1.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 10.7
5-13 8.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.0
4-14 6.3% 0.7% 0.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 6.3
3-15 4.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 4.0
2-16 2.0% 2.0
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.3% 6.2% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.3 0.4 93.7 0.1%