Indiana St.
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.2#118
Expected Predictive Rating+3.4#122
Pace69.7#167
Improvement-1.2#234

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#86
First Shot+2.2#104
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#107
Layup/Dunks+4.4#36
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#265
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#185
Freethrows+0.0#172
Improvement-3.2#323

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#154
First Shot-0.6#177
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#117
Layups/Dunks-3.9#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#86
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#56
Freethrows-1.0#246
Improvement+2.0#67
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.3% 12.3% 7.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.5 13.0
.500 or above 79.7% 91.0% 74.1%
.500 or above in Conference 69.9% 85.0% 62.3%
Conference Champion 3.2% 7.0% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round9.3% 12.2% 7.8%
Second Round1.5% 2.3% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Chicago (Away) - 33.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 42 - 7
Quad 37 - 69 - 13
Quad 48 - 016 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 9   @ Dayton L 81-86 8%     0 - 1 +13.4 +11.7 +2.0
  Nov 13, 2019 6   @ Louisville L 62-91 7%     0 - 2 -9.4 +1.3 -11.6
  Nov 17, 2019 101   Ball St. L 55-69 44%     0 - 3 -9.3 -8.8 -1.7
  Nov 21, 2019 90   Duquesne L 71-74 39%     0 - 4 +3.0 +1.1 +1.9
  Nov 22, 2019 196   Loyola Marymount W 72-60 71%     1 - 4 +9.6 +13.4 -1.2
  Nov 24, 2019 158   Air Force W 84-74 60%     2 - 4 +10.5 +6.7 +3.8
  Dec 03, 2019 151   North Dakota St. W 71-60 69%     3 - 4 +9.1 +0.0 +9.7
  Dec 07, 2019 117   @ Wright St. W 84-77 OT 38%     4 - 4 +13.4 +3.9 +8.6
  Dec 18, 2019 247   Tennessee St. W 78-72 84%     5 - 4 -1.7 -5.4 +3.3
  Dec 22, 2019 352   Chicago St. W 85-64 99%     6 - 4 -2.9 -7.5 +3.0
  Dec 30, 2019 189   Southern Illinois W 68-56 77%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +7.6 +0.9 +7.6
  Jan 04, 2020 144   @ Drake L 76-80 46%     7 - 5 1 - 1 +0.2 +5.9 -5.8
  Jan 07, 2020 57   @ Northern Iowa L 60-68 21%     7 - 6 1 - 2 +3.6 +0.4 +2.0
  Jan 11, 2020 201   Illinois St. W 65-52 79%     8 - 6 2 - 2 +7.5 -9.6 +17.3
  Jan 15, 2020 252   Evansville W 65-42 85%     9 - 6 3 - 2 +15.1 -7.1 +23.7
  Jan 18, 2020 162   @ Valparaiso L 77-86 51%     9 - 7 3 - 3 -6.0 +4.8 -10.8
  Jan 22, 2020 98   @ Loyola Chicago L 65-69 33%    
  Jan 25, 2020 96   Bradley W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 29, 2020 144   Drake W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 01, 2020 147   @ Missouri St. L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 05, 2020 98   Loyola Chicago W 68-67 55%    
  Feb 08, 2020 201   @ Illinois St. W 72-69 61%    
  Feb 12, 2020 96   @ Bradley L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 16, 2020 147   Missouri St. W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 20, 2020 57   Northern Iowa L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 23, 2020 252   @ Evansville W 74-69 69%    
  Feb 26, 2020 189   @ Southern Illinois W 65-63 57%    
  Feb 29, 2020 162   Valparaiso W 77-71 71%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.0 0.2 3.2 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 4.8 2.8 0.5 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.8 7.9 4.0 0.4 0.0 16.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.9 9.7 4.6 0.4 0.0 18.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.8 9.4 5.1 0.5 18.0 5th
6th 0.1 2.0 7.3 4.9 0.5 0.0 14.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.7 3.9 0.5 0.0 10.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.2 2.1 0.3 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 2.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.6 4.3 9.2 14.6 19.0 19.4 15.5 9.8 4.6 1.5 0.2 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 87.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-4 65.3% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 29.3% 1.3    0.4 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.9% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.2% 3.2 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.2% 32.0% 25.1% 6.9% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.2%
14-4 1.5% 25.1% 24.6% 0.5% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 1.1 0.6%
13-5 4.6% 23.0% 22.9% 0.1% 12.2 0.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.5 0.1%
12-6 9.8% 16.3% 16.3% 12.4 0.0 1.0 0.5 0.0 0.0 8.2
11-7 15.5% 12.4% 12.4% 12.6 0.0 0.8 1.0 0.1 13.6
10-8 19.4% 9.9% 9.9% 12.9 0.0 0.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 17.4
9-9 19.0% 6.8% 6.8% 13.3 0.1 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.0 17.7
8-10 14.6% 4.7% 4.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 13.9
7-11 9.2% 3.3% 3.3% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 8.9
6-12 4.3% 1.4% 1.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.2
5-13 1.6% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.6
4-14 0.4% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 9.3% 9.3% 0.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.5 3.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 90.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.0 12.1 8.6 8.6 19.0 32.8 19.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 20.5% 11.1 17.9 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 7.8% 11.4 4.4 3.3