Jacksonville St.
Ohio Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.0#232
Expected Predictive Rating-8.4#297
Pace68.7#203
Improvement+2.1#96

Offense
Total Offense-4.0#288
First Shot-5.1#313
After Offensive Rebound+1.2#95
Layup/Dunks+0.1#172
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#239
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#205
Freethrows-3.1#339
Improvement+0.8#130

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#162
First Shot-1.9#225
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#41
Layups/Dunks-1.0#221
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#178
Freethrows+1.3#98
Improvement+1.3#104
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.4% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 19.2% 25.6% 6.5%
.500 or above in Conference 80.8% 89.0% 64.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.0% 2.2% 1.6%
First Round2.0% 2.5% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tennessee St. (Home) - 66.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 413 - 614 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 68   @ SMU L 65-74 9%     0 - 1 +1.7 -5.2 +6.7
  Nov 17, 2019 42   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 65-93 6%     0 - 2 -14.4 -5.6 -5.7
  Nov 23, 2019 19   @ Purdue L 49-81 4%     0 - 3 -15.6 -9.7 -8.8
  Nov 29, 2019 353   Chicago St. W 71-62 94%     1 - 3 -12.6 -16.1 +3.2
  Nov 30, 2019 157   Chattanooga L 60-63 34%     1 - 4 -2.8 -7.0 +3.9
  Dec 03, 2019 153   @ George Mason L 60-67 24%     1 - 5 -3.5 -8.1 +4.3
  Dec 07, 2019 342   @ Alabama A&M L 62-67 OT 73%     1 - 6 -15.4 -20.2 +5.3
  Dec 11, 2019 283   Troy L 55-60 71%     1 - 7 -14.6 -17.5 +2.5
  Dec 16, 2019 268   Evansville W 85-59 68%     2 - 7 +17.1 +8.6 +8.6
  Dec 18, 2019 349   Delaware St. W 92-80 93%     3 - 7 -9.0 +6.5 -16.5
  Dec 21, 2019 45   @ Tennessee L 53-75 6%     3 - 8 -8.6 -9.9 +0.7
  Jan 02, 2020 314   @ Morehead St. W 76-72 58%     4 - 8 1 - 0 -2.2 -0.4 -1.8
  Jan 04, 2020 301   @ Eastern Kentucky W 80-71 55%     5 - 8 2 - 0 +3.6 +0.8 +2.5
  Jan 09, 2020 120   Murray St. L 68-72 35%     5 - 9 2 - 1 -3.9 -10.0 +6.3
  Jan 11, 2020 149   Austin Peay L 67-71 42%     5 - 10 2 - 2 -5.9 -8.7 +2.7
  Jan 16, 2020 230   @ Eastern Illinois L 69-70 38%     5 - 11 2 - 3 -1.9 -2.4 +0.4
  Jan 18, 2020 338   @ SIU Edwardsville W 64-56 68%     6 - 11 3 - 3 -0.8 -14.5 +13.7
  Jan 23, 2020 301   Eastern Kentucky L 77-81 75%     6 - 12 3 - 4 -15.2 -1.9 -13.3
  Jan 25, 2020 314   Morehead St. W 72-51 78%     7 - 12 4 - 4 +9.0 -6.1 +15.3
  Jan 30, 2020 265   Tennessee St. W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 01, 2020 99   Belmont L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 06, 2020 332   @ Southeast Missouri St. W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 08, 2020 304   @ Tennessee Martin W 76-74 56%    
  Feb 13, 2020 339   @ Tennessee Tech W 68-62 70%    
  Feb 15, 2020 99   @ Belmont L 66-78 13%    
  Feb 20, 2020 332   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-63 82%    
  Feb 22, 2020 304   Tennessee Martin W 79-72 75%    
  Feb 27, 2020 265   @ Tennessee St. L 70-71 44%    
  Feb 29, 2020 339   Tennessee Tech W 70-59 86%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.1 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 2.0 0.1 8.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 9.6 14.2 6.0 0.3 32.1 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 8.2 11.9 4.7 0.4 0.0 26.4 5th
6th 0.2 4.4 7.9 2.9 0.3 0.0 15.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 5.3 2.4 0.2 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.4 0.1 4.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 0.7 0.1 1.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.5 5.1 12.3 20.6 24.8 21.1 10.9 3.2 0.3 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 11.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 22.2% 22.2% 15.2 0.1 0.0 0.2
13-5 3.2% 9.0% 9.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.9
12-6 10.9% 7.0% 7.0% 15.9 0.1 0.7 10.1
11-7 21.1% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.7 20.3
10-8 24.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.7 24.1
9-9 20.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 20.3
8-10 12.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 12.3
7-11 5.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 5.1
6-12 1.5% 1.5
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.7 97.1 0.0%