Purdue
Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+15.0#13
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#126
Pace64.9#302
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#7
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#50
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.9% 0.6%
#1 Seed 6.0% 9.5% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 14.0% 20.8% 8.3%
Top 4 Seed 33.0% 44.7% 23.2%
Top 6 Seed 50.7% 63.8% 39.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.6% 88.7% 70.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 75.7% 86.7% 67.1%
Average Seed 5.4 4.9 6.0
.500 or above 91.0% 96.4% 86.6%
.500 or above in Conference 87.8% 92.2% 84.1%
Conference Champion 15.5% 19.8% 11.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Four2.9% 2.1% 3.6%
First Round77.3% 87.7% 68.6%
Second Round58.0% 68.5% 49.3%
Sweet Sixteen32.4% 40.6% 25.6%
Elite Eight16.6% 21.7% 12.4%
Final Four8.1% 10.9% 5.8%
Championship Game3.9% 5.5% 2.6%
National Champion1.8% 2.6% 1.1%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 45.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 53 - 5
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 8
Quad 26 - 212 - 10
Quad 35 - 118 - 11
Quad 44 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 166   Green Bay W 79-57 95%     1 - 0 +18.5 +1.7 +16.6
  Nov 09, 2019 21   Texas L 66-70 66%     1 - 1 +6.7 +5.9 +0.4
  Nov 13, 2019 23   @ Marquette L 72-73 45%    
  Nov 16, 2019 353   Chicago St. W 96-57 100.0%   
  Nov 23, 2019 212   Jacksonville St. W 80-59 97%    
  Nov 29, 2019 42   Virginia Commonwealth W 71-67 65%    
  Dec 04, 2019 7   Virginia W 59-58 51%    
  Dec 08, 2019 143   Northwestern W 74-57 93%    
  Dec 15, 2019 149   @ Nebraska W 73-62 84%    
  Dec 17, 2019 175   @ Ohio W 78-65 88%    
  Dec 21, 2019 41   Butler W 69-65 65%    
  Dec 28, 2019 125   Central Michigan W 87-71 92%    
  Jan 02, 2020 72   Minnesota W 75-64 82%    
  Jan 05, 2020 54   @ Illinois W 76-73 60%    
  Jan 09, 2020 29   @ Michigan L 66-67 49%    
  Jan 12, 2020 1   Michigan St. L 70-73 41%    
  Jan 18, 2020 9   @ Maryland L 70-75 34%    
  Jan 21, 2020 54   Illinois W 79-70 78%    
  Jan 24, 2020 38   Wisconsin W 67-60 72%    
  Jan 28, 2020 69   @ Rutgers W 70-66 64%    
  Feb 01, 2020 143   @ Northwestern W 71-60 82%    
  Feb 05, 2020 60   Iowa W 82-72 79%    
  Feb 08, 2020 45   @ Indiana W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 11, 2020 39   Penn St. W 75-68 72%    
  Feb 15, 2020 14   @ Ohio St. L 66-69 40%    
  Feb 18, 2020 38   @ Wisconsin W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 22, 2020 29   Michigan W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 27, 2020 45   Indiana W 75-67 74%    
  Mar 03, 2020 60   @ Iowa W 79-75 62%    
  Mar 07, 2020 69   Rutgers W 73-63 81%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.1 4.5 3.8 2.0 0.5 15.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.8 5.4 5.6 3.1 0.7 0.0 18.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 3.3 5.9 4.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 16.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 3.3 5.3 3.2 0.7 0.0 13.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.5 4.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.7 1.9 0.3 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 2.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 5.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.6 0.3 0.0 4.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.3 4.8 6.6 8.9 10.7 12.0 12.5 11.8 10.2 7.9 4.6 2.1 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 98.6% 2.0    1.8 0.2
18-2 83.8% 3.8    2.9 0.9 0.0
17-3 57.4% 4.5    2.6 1.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 30.4% 3.1    1.2 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 10.2% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 2.0% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.5% 15.5 9.3 4.8 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 43.4% 56.6% 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.1% 100.0% 42.6% 57.4% 1.4 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.6% 100.0% 34.8% 65.2% 1.9 1.9 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 7.9% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 2.5 1.6 2.6 2.3 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 10.2% 99.9% 20.6% 79.3% 3.5 0.6 2.0 3.1 2.4 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 11.8% 99.8% 16.3% 83.5% 4.5 0.2 0.9 2.4 2.9 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 12.5% 98.7% 10.7% 88.0% 5.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.8 2.6 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 98.5%
13-7 12.0% 94.1% 7.7% 86.4% 7.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.2 2.2 2.0 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.7 93.6%
12-8 10.7% 84.0% 4.3% 79.7% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 2.0 1.4 1.3 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.7 83.3%
11-9 8.9% 63.2% 3.2% 60.0% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.3 62.0%
10-10 6.6% 38.3% 2.0% 36.3% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.0 4.1 37.0%
9-11 4.8% 13.5% 1.1% 12.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.1 12.6%
8-12 3.3% 4.3% 0.7% 3.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.1 3.6%
7-13 2.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.4%
6-14 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 11.0 0.0 0.0 1.1
5-15 0.6% 1.3% 1.3% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 78.6% 11.9% 66.7% 5.4 6.0 8.0 9.8 9.2 9.4 8.4 7.5 6.8 5.1 4.4 3.5 0.6 0.0 21.4 75.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 1.0 96.8 3.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.2 78.1 21.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.1 90.5 9.5