McNeese St.
Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#262
Expected Predictive Rating-4.9#243
Pace70.9#132
Improvement+2.9#64

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#181
First Shot+3.6#74
After Offensive Rebound-3.6#345
Layup/Dunks+4.4#41
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#153
Freethrows+0.6#128
Improvement-0.5#213

Defense
Total Defense-5.5#319
First Shot-3.4#287
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#332
Layups/Dunks+1.2#120
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#129
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#340
Freethrows-0.6#219
Improvement+3.4#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.3% 6.9% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.8 15.9
.500 or above 59.3% 73.2% 43.7%
.500 or above in Conference 95.5% 98.8% 91.9%
Conference Champion 2.7% 4.6% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.1% 3.6% 2.4%
First Round3.7% 5.1% 2.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Nicholls St. (Home) - 52.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 41 - 8
Quad 413 - 714 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2019 233   @ Western Michigan L 65-75 34%     0 - 1 -11.1 -8.0 -3.3
  Nov 09, 2019 246   @ Louisiana L 80-85 37%     0 - 2 -7.0 -1.3 -5.3
  Nov 13, 2019 29   @ Wisconsin L 63-83 4%     0 - 3 -4.7 +3.3 -9.2
  Nov 16, 2019 124   @ New Mexico L 80-90 15%     0 - 4 -4.5 +0.0 -3.5
  Nov 22, 2019 76   @ Richmond L 57-87 8%     0 - 5 -20.1 -10.0 -11.3
  Nov 30, 2019 63   @ Texas L 71-73 7%     0 - 6 +9.0 +7.8 +1.1
  Dec 10, 2019 225   UMKC W 82-73 55%     1 - 6 +2.3 +3.0 -1.0
  Dec 21, 2019 138   Stephen F. Austin L 73-81 34%     1 - 7 0 - 1 -9.2 -3.4 -5.2
  Jan 02, 2020 178   Sam Houston St. L 75-94 43%     1 - 8 0 - 2 -22.7 -4.3 -17.1
  Jan 04, 2020 306   @ Central Arkansas L 69-79 51%     1 - 9 0 - 3 -15.7 -11.8 -3.4
  Jan 08, 2020 210   @ Abilene Christian W 88-84 30%     2 - 9 1 - 3 +3.8 +7.5 -4.2
  Jan 11, 2020 330   Northwestern St. W 85-76 78%     3 - 9 2 - 3 -4.6 +6.6 -11.2
  Jan 15, 2020 347   Incarnate Word W 72-56 91%     4 - 9 3 - 3 -4.3 -1.3 -0.8
  Jan 18, 2020 323   @ New Orleans W 65-52 55%     5 - 9 4 - 3 +6.1 -7.3 +14.5
  Jan 22, 2020 328   @ SE Louisiana W 77-61 58%     6 - 9 5 - 3 +8.5 -1.8 +9.5
  Jan 25, 2020 344   Houston Baptist W 102-89 86%     7 - 9 6 - 3 -4.4 -1.8 -4.3
  Jan 29, 2020 212   Nicholls St. W 73-72 53%    
  Feb 01, 2020 278   Lamar W 74-70 65%    
  Feb 05, 2020 290   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 67-68 45%    
  Feb 08, 2020 306   Central Arkansas W 84-78 71%    
  Feb 15, 2020 330   @ Northwestern St. W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 19, 2020 347   @ Incarnate Word W 76-67 80%    
  Feb 22, 2020 323   New Orleans W 80-73 75%    
  Feb 26, 2020 328   SE Louisiana W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 29, 2020 344   @ Houston Baptist W 95-89 71%    
  Mar 04, 2020 212   @ Nicholls St. L 70-75 31%    
  Mar 07, 2020 278   @ Lamar L 71-73 43%    
Projected Record 14 - 13 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 0.5 2.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.4 6.1 2.7 0.2 12.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.8 7.9 3.7 0.2 17.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.4 10.2 4.8 0.4 21.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 8.0 12.0 7.0 0.9 0.0 29.7 5th
6th 0.6 3.5 3.8 1.1 0.0 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.4 0.0 3.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 7.6 13.2 19.3 22.5 17.1 10.7 4.5 0.7 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 68.5% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 33.6% 1.5    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0
15-5 5.3% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.7% 2.7 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.7% 32.9% 32.9% 14.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.5
16-4 4.5% 17.6% 17.6% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 3.7
15-5 10.7% 12.0% 12.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.1 9.4
14-6 17.1% 7.8% 7.8% 15.9 0.1 1.2 15.7
13-7 22.5% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 1.0 21.5
12-8 19.3% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.4 18.8
11-9 13.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.1
10-10 7.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.6
9-11 3.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.2
8-12 1.0% 1.0
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 15.8 0.1 0.6 4.5 94.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 14.8 25.0 66.7 8.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%