Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#144
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#170
Pace65.1#288
Improvement-0.7#218

Offense
Total Offense-0.8#195
First Shot-1.9#239
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#98
Layup/Dunks-8.5#349
2 Pt Jumpshots+7.9#4
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#223
Freethrows-0.2#189
Improvement-1.5#260

Defense
Total Defense+2.1#106
First Shot+1.1#127
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#89
Layups/Dunks+8.6#1
2 Pt Jumpshots-7.8#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#220
Freethrows+1.2#105
Improvement+0.8#129
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 6.3% 4.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.0 14.5
.500 or above 45.2% 62.6% 33.8%
.500 or above in Conference 62.3% 79.4% 51.1%
Conference Champion 1.6% 3.0% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round5.0% 6.3% 4.1%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Drake (Away) - 39.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 4
Quad 21 - 51 - 9
Quad 36 - 77 - 16
Quad 49 - 116 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 139   Arkansas Little Rock L 66-67 60%     0 - 1 -2.4 +3.0 -5.5
  Nov 10, 2019 342   Alabama St. W 59-50 94%     1 - 1 -6.9 -19.0 +12.2
  Nov 12, 2019 318   Cleveland St. W 73-53 89%     2 - 1 +7.6 -4.1 +11.9
  Nov 15, 2019 53   @ Xavier L 56-59 14%     2 - 2 +9.7 -4.5 +14.0
  Nov 21, 2019 96   Miami (FL) L 70-74 35%     2 - 3 +1.2 -0.3 +1.4
  Nov 22, 2019 240   Saint Joseph's W 71-69 71%     3 - 3 -2.5 -4.4 +2.0
  Nov 24, 2019 136   Buffalo L 74-75 48%     3 - 4 +0.9 +4.6 -3.7
  Nov 29, 2019 33   @ LSU L 58-73 11%     3 - 5 +0.0 -4.0 +2.0
  Dec 03, 2019 122   Murray St. W 71-69 56%     4 - 5 +1.9 -4.9 +6.8
  Dec 06, 2019 352   Mississippi Valley W 86-62 98%     5 - 5 -0.1 -9.3 +6.5
  Dec 11, 2019 207   Arkansas St. W 75-53 76%     6 - 5 +16.1 +4.9 +13.6
  Dec 15, 2019 43   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 51-61 13%     6 - 6 +3.7 -9.6 +12.8
  Dec 21, 2019 123   @ Oral Roberts L 72-82 33%     6 - 7 -4.3 -3.6 -0.4
  Dec 31, 2019 272   Evansville W 65-52 83%     7 - 7 1 - 0 +4.0 -4.4 +9.8
  Jan 04, 2020 90   @ Loyola Chicago L 58-62 24%     7 - 8 1 - 1 +4.8 -1.5 +5.8
  Jan 07, 2020 209   @ Illinois St. W 67-63 56%     8 - 8 2 - 1 +3.9 -2.0 +6.1
  Jan 11, 2020 61   Northern Iowa L 57-80 35%     8 - 9 2 - 2 -17.6 -10.9 -8.6
  Jan 15, 2020 100   Bradley L 78-91 47%     8 - 10 2 - 3 -10.9 +2.0 -12.2
  Jan 18, 2020 272   @ Evansville W 68-58 67%     9 - 10 3 - 3 +6.8 -3.2 +10.4
  Jan 23, 2020 165   Valparaiso W 67-60 66%     10 - 10 4 - 3 +4.2 -9.8 +13.7
  Jan 26, 2020 143   @ Drake L 64-67 40%    
  Jan 29, 2020 61   @ Northern Iowa L 61-71 17%    
  Feb 01, 2020 132   Indiana St. W 69-67 57%    
  Feb 05, 2020 209   Illinois St. W 69-62 75%    
  Feb 08, 2020 171   @ Southern Illinois L 59-60 45%    
  Feb 12, 2020 143   Drake W 67-64 61%    
  Feb 16, 2020 132   @ Indiana St. L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 19, 2020 100   @ Bradley L 62-69 26%    
  Feb 22, 2020 90   Loyola Chicago L 61-63 45%    
  Feb 25, 2020 165   @ Valparaiso L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 29, 2020 171   Southern Illinois W 62-57 67%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 2.5 1.1 0.1 5.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.4 6.2 2.8 0.3 11.8 3rd
4th 0.2 3.3 10.3 5.3 0.7 0.0 19.8 4th
5th 0.0 2.1 9.6 5.5 0.4 17.6 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 7.5 6.8 0.7 16.0 6th
7th 0.9 5.2 7.4 1.2 0.0 14.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.6 5.1 1.5 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.2 0.6 1.0 0.4 0.0 2.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.3 1.4 5.5 11.8 18.7 21.0 19.0 13.4 6.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 75.0% 0.3    0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 36.0% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 5.7% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.6% 1.6 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.4% 18.2% 18.2% 12.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-5 2.2% 13.1% 13.1% 12.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.9
12-6 6.3% 10.7% 10.7% 13.4 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 5.6
11-7 13.4% 8.9% 8.9% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.2 12.2
10-8 19.0% 6.0% 6.0% 14.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 17.8
9-9 21.0% 4.1% 4.1% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 20.1
8-10 18.7% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 18.1
7-11 11.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.2 11.6
6-12 5.5% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.5
5-13 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 14.2 0.2 1.0 1.7 1.5 0.6 95.0 0.0%