Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.3#141
Expected Predictive Rating-6.7#265
Pace65.8#285
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#208
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#98
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.2% 16.9% 9.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.7% 0.2%
Average Seed 13.4 12.6 13.6
.500 or above 53.5% 76.4% 51.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.0% 71.9% 57.7%
Conference Champion 11.0% 17.0% 10.4%
Last Place in Conference 8.8% 4.7% 9.2%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round10.0% 16.5% 9.4%
Second Round1.3% 1.7% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Xavier (Away) - 8.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 42 - 7
Quad 36 - 68 - 13
Quad 48 - 216 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 200   Arkansas Little Rock L 66-67 74%     0 - 1 -6.3 -1.1 -5.3
  Nov 10, 2019 324   Alabama St. W 59-50 91%     1 - 1 -4.6 -18.6 +14.1
  Nov 12, 2019 321   Cleveland St. W 73-53 91%     2 - 1 +6.7 -5.8 +12.7
  Nov 15, 2019 27   @ Xavier L 59-73 9%    
  Nov 21, 2019 55   Miami (FL) L 64-72 24%    
  Nov 29, 2019 26   @ LSU L 68-82 10%    
  Dec 03, 2019 115   Murray St. W 70-68 56%    
  Dec 06, 2019 352   Mississippi Valley W 93-68 99%    
  Dec 11, 2019 284   Arkansas St. W 74-63 84%    
  Dec 15, 2019 42   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 61-73 13%    
  Dec 21, 2019 177   @ Oral Roberts L 75-76 47%    
  Dec 31, 2019 130   Evansville W 69-67 59%    
  Jan 04, 2020 139   @ Loyola Chicago L 62-65 39%    
  Jan 07, 2020 163   @ Illinois St. L 66-67 45%    
  Jan 11, 2020 98   Northern Iowa L 61-62 50%    
  Jan 15, 2020 111   Bradley W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 18, 2020 130   @ Evansville L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 23, 2020 184   Valparaiso W 72-66 70%    
  Jan 26, 2020 140   @ Drake L 68-71 39%    
  Jan 29, 2020 98   @ Northern Iowa L 59-65 29%    
  Feb 01, 2020 147   Indiana St. W 72-69 62%    
  Feb 05, 2020 163   Illinois St. W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 08, 2020 207   @ Southern Illinois W 62-61 54%    
  Feb 12, 2020 140   Drake W 71-68 60%    
  Feb 16, 2020 147   @ Indiana St. L 69-72 41%    
  Feb 19, 2020 111   @ Bradley L 62-67 34%    
  Feb 22, 2020 139   Loyola Chicago W 65-62 60%    
  Feb 25, 2020 184   @ Valparaiso L 69-70 49%    
  Feb 29, 2020 207   Southern Illinois W 65-58 72%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.6 2.8 2.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 11.0 1st
2nd 0.4 2.4 4.3 3.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 11.9 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.0 5.1 2.9 0.7 0.1 12.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.9 5.6 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.8 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.5 3.0 0.3 0.0 11.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.8 5.2 2.8 0.4 0.0 10.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.8 3.1 0.4 10.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.6 2.6 0.5 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 2.8 2.1 0.4 0.0 7.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.2 4.9 10th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.7 5.4 7.7 9.7 11.4 12.0 12.3 10.8 8.7 6.7 4.1 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5
16-2 98.3% 1.2    1.1 0.1
15-3 91.3% 2.4    1.9 0.5
14-4 67.8% 2.8    1.9 0.8 0.1
13-5 38.8% 2.6    0.9 1.4 0.3 0.0
12-6 13.3% 1.2    0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 11.0% 11.0 6.6 3.3 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 56.3% 43.8% 12.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 22.2%
16-2 1.2% 50.4% 43.7% 6.7% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 11.9%
15-3 2.7% 33.6% 32.1% 1.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.8 2.2%
14-4 4.1% 27.1% 27.1% 12.7 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 3.0
13-5 6.7% 21.7% 21.7% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 5.3
12-6 8.7% 18.5% 18.5% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.5 0.2 7.1
11-7 10.8% 11.3% 11.3% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 9.5
10-8 12.3% 10.4% 10.4% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.1 11.1
9-9 12.0% 7.0% 7.0% 14.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 11.2
8-10 11.4% 4.0% 4.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 10.9
7-11 9.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.5
6-12 7.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 7.6
5-13 5.4% 2.0% 2.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 5.3
4-14 3.7% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 3.7
3-15 1.7% 1.7
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 10.2% 10.0% 0.2% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.9 2.8 2.6 1.6 0.7 89.8 0.2%