Xavier
Big East
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#53
Expected Predictive Rating+9.7#56
Pace69.5#178
Improvement-3.3#307

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#67
First Shot+0.6#154
After Offensive Rebound+3.0#18
Layup/Dunks+6.2#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#308
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#242
Freethrows-0.9#245
Improvement+1.2#107

Defense
Total Defense+5.7#44
First Shot+5.1#46
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#124
Layups/Dunks+0.2#160
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#189
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#49
Freethrows+1.5#86
Improvement-4.5#346
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 4.1% 5.8% 1.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.2% 42.3% 23.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 31.8% 39.8% 21.0%
Average Seed 9.0 8.8 9.4
.500 or above 86.4% 93.2% 77.0%
.500 or above in Conference 19.5% 26.9% 9.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 23.1% 14.6% 34.9%
First Four7.3% 8.0% 6.2%
First Round30.5% 38.3% 19.8%
Second Round14.3% 18.3% 8.8%
Sweet Sixteen4.4% 5.7% 2.6%
Elite Eight1.6% 2.1% 0.9%
Final Four0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 58.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 11
Quad 26 - 310 - 14
Quad 34 - 014 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 242   Jacksonville W 76-57 93%     1 - 0 +11.7 +0.5 +10.4
  Nov 08, 2019 230   Siena W 81-63 93%     2 - 0 +11.1 -0.5 +10.6
  Nov 12, 2019 64   Missouri W 63-58 OT 65%     3 - 0 +10.3 -13.7 +23.3
  Nov 15, 2019 148   Missouri St. W 59-56 85%     4 - 0 +1.4 -9.4 +10.9
  Nov 21, 2019 178   Towson W 73-51 83%     5 - 0 +21.4 +4.4 +18.4
  Nov 22, 2019 78   Connecticut W 75-74 2OT 59%     6 - 0 +7.9 -4.6 +12.4
  Nov 24, 2019 19   Florida L 65-70 33%     6 - 1 +8.9 +1.2 +7.5
  Nov 30, 2019 269   Lipscomb W 87-62 94%     7 - 1 +16.1 +5.3 +9.9
  Dec 04, 2019 216   Green Bay W 84-71 92%     8 - 1 +6.9 -0.3 +6.5
  Dec 07, 2019 49   Cincinnati W 73-66 59%     9 - 1 +14.0 +3.6 +10.2
  Dec 14, 2019 109   @ Wake Forest L 78-80 59%     9 - 2 +4.9 +2.2 +2.8
  Dec 18, 2019 155   Western Carolina W 74-61 86%     10 - 2 +10.9 -5.4 +16.0
  Dec 22, 2019 67   @ TCU W 67-59 45%     11 - 2 +18.7 +4.7 +14.4
  Dec 30, 2019 23   @ Villanova L 62-68 26%     11 - 3 0 - 1 +10.0 -3.3 +13.2
  Jan 05, 2020 77   St. John's W 75-67 69%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +12.1 +0.8 +10.8
  Jan 08, 2020 8   Seton Hall L 71-83 37%     12 - 4 1 - 2 +0.8 +5.4 -4.5
  Jan 11, 2020 35   Creighton L 65-77 52%     12 - 5 1 - 3 -3.1 -1.9 -2.0
  Jan 15, 2020 27   @ Marquette L 65-85 28%     12 - 6 1 - 4 -4.5 -0.6 -4.1
  Jan 22, 2020 47   Georgetown W 77-75 58%    
  Jan 26, 2020 35   @ Creighton L 70-75 30%    
  Jan 29, 2020 27   Marquette L 72-73 49%    
  Feb 01, 2020 8   @ Seton Hall L 65-74 19%    
  Feb 04, 2020 60   @ DePaul L 69-71 43%    
  Feb 08, 2020 65   Providence W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 12, 2020 17   @ Butler L 60-68 24%    
  Feb 17, 2020 77   @ St. John's L 71-72 48%    
  Feb 22, 2020 23   Villanova L 67-68 47%    
  Feb 25, 2020 60   DePaul W 72-68 64%    
  Mar 01, 2020 47   @ Georgetown L 74-78 36%    
  Mar 04, 2020 65   @ Providence L 67-69 44%    
  Mar 07, 2020 17   Butler L 63-65 43%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.7 3rd
4th 0.3 3.0 2.5 0.4 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.5 4.7 0.9 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.2 7.1 2.2 0.1 12.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 3.0 8.6 3.9 0.3 0.0 15.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.3 9.2 5.8 0.5 19.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.7 3.7 8.1 4.8 0.6 17.8 9th
10th 0.2 1.3 3.3 5.0 3.1 0.5 0.0 13.4 10th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.0 9.1 14.6 17.5 18.5 15.3 10.5 5.6 2.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 60.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 23.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 15.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 0.7% 100.0% 12.8% 87.2% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
11-7 2.6% 99.4% 11.1% 88.3% 6.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
10-8 5.6% 97.2% 7.8% 89.4% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.2 96.9%
9-9 10.5% 90.6% 8.4% 82.1% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.3 2.7 1.9 0.9 0.0 1.0 89.7%
8-10 15.3% 63.7% 5.1% 58.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.8 2.8 3.7 0.4 0.0 5.6 61.7%
7-11 18.5% 25.3% 2.7% 22.6% 10.8 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.7 0.8 13.8 23.2%
6-12 17.5% 6.4% 1.7% 4.7% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 16.4 4.8%
5-13 14.6% 1.5% 1.2% 0.3% 11.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 14.4 0.3%
4-14 9.1% 0.4% 0.4% 11.5 0.0 0.0 9.0
3-15 4.0% 0.8% 0.8% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9
2-16 1.4% 0.7% 0.7% 15.0 0.0 1.4
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18
Total 100% 34.2% 3.5% 30.7% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.0 3.5 5.1 5.9 6.0 8.1 1.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.8 31.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%