North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.8#43
Expected Predictive Rating+10.2#50
Pace71.8#111
Improvement-0.6#208

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#11
First Shot+6.9#18
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#78
Layup/Dunks+4.1#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#131
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#113
Freethrows+0.4#140
Improvement-2.7#312

Defense
Total Defense+2.5#103
First Shot+3.1#80
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#227
Layups/Dunks-0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#37
Freethrows-0.7#228
Improvement+2.1#61
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.9% 3.7% 0.8%
Top 6 Seed 8.0% 13.8% 4.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 56.7% 71.2% 47.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 55.2% 69.9% 45.8%
Average Seed 8.8 8.3 9.2
.500 or above 98.7% 99.8% 98.0%
.500 or above in Conference 72.0% 85.1% 63.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.2% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 0.8%
First Four9.5% 8.1% 10.4%
First Round51.9% 67.1% 42.0%
Second Round26.4% 35.7% 20.3%
Sweet Sixteen9.0% 12.4% 6.7%
Elite Eight3.7% 5.3% 2.7%
Final Four1.3% 1.9% 0.9%
Championship Game0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
National Champion0.1% 0.2% 0.1%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 39.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 44 - 9
Quad 27 - 310 - 11
Quad 35 - 115 - 12
Quad 46 - 021 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 84   Georgia Tech L 81-82 OT 75%     0 - 1 0 - 1 +2.6 +3.5 -0.7
  Nov 10, 2019 267   Detroit Mercy W 84-65 96%     1 - 1 +10.2 -1.1 +10.0
  Nov 13, 2019 154   Florida International W 86-77 88%     2 - 1 +6.9 +3.4 +2.7
  Nov 16, 2019 302   St. Francis Brooklyn W 95-64 97%     3 - 1 +19.9 +4.8 +11.1
  Nov 19, 2019 314   Alcorn St. W 87-64 97%     4 - 1 +10.9 +4.8 +5.5
  Nov 23, 2019 145   Arkansas Little Rock W 74-58 87%     5 - 1 +14.5 +0.1 +13.9
  Nov 28, 2019 29   Memphis L 78-83 44%     5 - 2 +7.3 +15.2 -8.0
  Dec 04, 2019 24   Wisconsin W 69-54 52%     6 - 2 +25.2 +16.8 +11.4
  Dec 07, 2019 112   @ Wake Forest W 91-82 65%     7 - 2 1 - 1 +15.8 +12.2 +2.8
  Dec 15, 2019 79   @ UNC Greensboro W 80-77 54%     8 - 2 +12.8 +19.2 -6.3
  Dec 19, 2019 26   @ Auburn L 73-79 33%     8 - 3 +9.4 -0.5 +10.7
  Dec 22, 2019 292   The Citadel W 83-63 96%     9 - 3 +9.6 -2.7 +10.9
  Dec 29, 2019 204   Appalachian St. W 72-60 93%     10 - 3 +6.4 -2.7 +9.2
  Jan 04, 2020 71   @ Clemson L 70-81 52%     10 - 4 1 - 2 -0.7 +7.3 -8.2
  Jan 08, 2020 55   Notre Dame W 73-68 66%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +11.5 +10.1 +1.9
  Jan 11, 2020 60   @ Virginia Tech L 58-72 48%     11 - 5 2 - 3 -2.7 -9.4 +6.8
  Jan 15, 2020 85   Miami (FL) W 80-63 75%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +20.6 +12.7 +9.3
  Jan 18, 2020 71   Clemson W 60-54 72%     13 - 5 4 - 3 +10.7 -4.5 +15.5
  Jan 20, 2020 46   @ Virginia L 58-61 40%    
  Jan 25, 2020 84   @ Georgia Tech W 73-71 55%    
  Jan 27, 2020 69   North Carolina W 81-75 72%    
  Feb 01, 2020 6   Louisville L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 05, 2020 85   @ Miami (FL) W 77-75 55%    
  Feb 11, 2020 51   @ Syracuse L 72-74 43%    
  Feb 16, 2020 150   @ Boston College W 76-69 74%    
  Feb 19, 2020 2   Duke L 74-81 27%    
  Feb 22, 2020 15   Florida St. L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 25, 2020 69   @ North Carolina W 78-77 51%    
  Feb 29, 2020 68   Pittsburgh W 72-66 71%    
  Mar 02, 2020 2   @ Duke L 72-84 12%    
  Mar 06, 2020 112   Wake Forest W 82-72 82%    
Projected Record 20 - 11 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.1 8.2 6.1 1.5 0.1 19.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 7.9 5.6 1.0 0.0 16.9 5th
6th 0.8 6.4 6.2 1.2 0.1 14.8 6th
7th 0.1 3.7 6.8 1.9 0.1 12.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 5.5 2.5 0.2 9.1 8th
9th 0.1 2.7 3.5 0.3 6.6 9th
10th 0.6 3.1 0.9 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.1 1.4 1.3 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.5 8.3 14.5 18.6 19.4 16.3 10.3 5.2 1.8 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 55.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
15-5 16.3% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 15.8% 84.2% 3.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 1.8% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 4.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.2% 99.4% 9.7% 89.8% 6.3 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
13-7 10.3% 97.2% 7.0% 90.2% 7.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.5 2.6 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.3 97.0%
12-8 16.3% 89.4% 4.1% 85.2% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.2 4.3 3.3 1.4 0.1 1.7 88.9%
11-9 19.4% 71.9% 2.6% 69.3% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.0 4.4 4.1 0.3 5.5 71.2%
10-10 18.6% 44.1% 1.7% 42.4% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.0 4.1 0.7 10.4 43.1%
9-11 14.5% 15.4% 1.1% 14.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 0.5 12.3 14.5%
8-12 8.3% 3.6% 0.6% 3.0% 11.4 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.0 3.0%
7-13 3.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 0.2%
6-14 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 56.7% 3.3% 53.4% 8.8 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.3 3.8 6.0 8.4 10.5 10.7 11.3 1.7 0.0 43.3 55.2%