North Carolina St.
Atlantic Coast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.4#39
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#123
Pace77.4#38
Improvement+0.9#72

Offense
Total Offense+8.1#17
First Shot+9.3#10
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#233
Layup/Dunks+4.3#55
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#45
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#135
Freethrows+0.2#156
Improvement-0.2#189

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#78
First Shot+0.9#141
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#50
Layups/Dunks+2.9#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-6.5#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#38
Freethrows+0.0#181
Improvement+1.1#47
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 2.2% 2.4% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 8.7% 9.3% 3.0%
Top 6 Seed 19.4% 20.6% 7.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 52.2% 54.3% 31.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 50.9% 52.9% 31.2%
Average Seed 7.3 7.2 8.0
.500 or above 80.6% 82.8% 59.5%
.500 or above in Conference 52.4% 53.9% 37.9%
Conference Champion 1.8% 1.9% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 2.1% 5.0%
First Four4.7% 4.8% 3.5%
First Round50.0% 52.0% 30.1%
Second Round29.5% 30.8% 16.0%
Sweet Sixteen12.2% 12.8% 6.3%
Elite Eight5.1% 5.4% 2.6%
Final Four2.2% 2.3% 0.9%
Championship Game0.9% 0.9% 0.3%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.1%

Next Game: Arkansas Little Rock (Home) - 90.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 35 - 9
Quad 25 - 39 - 12
Quad 34 - 114 - 13
Quad 46 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 69   Georgia Tech L 81-82 OT 73%     0 - 1 +4.1 +3.1 +1.1
  Nov 10, 2019 284   Detroit Mercy W 84-65 96%     1 - 1 +9.3 -3.2 +11.2
  Nov 13, 2019 122   Florida International W 86-77 86%     2 - 1 +8.6 +3.1 +4.8
  Nov 16, 2019 301   St. Francis Brooklyn W 95-64 97%     3 - 1 +19.8 +4.9 +11.0
  Nov 19, 2019 338   Alcorn St. W 87-64 99%     4 - 1 +7.5 +5.2 +1.7
  Nov 23, 2019 156   Arkansas Little Rock W 83-69 91%    
  Nov 28, 2019 23   Memphis L 85-87 43%    
  Dec 04, 2019 29   Wisconsin W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 07, 2019 106   @ Wake Forest W 81-76 67%    
  Dec 15, 2019 90   @ UNC Greensboro W 74-71 61%    
  Dec 19, 2019 21   @ Auburn L 78-83 31%    
  Dec 22, 2019 312   The Citadel W 99-75 99%    
  Dec 29, 2019 185   Appalachian St. W 85-69 92%    
  Jan 04, 2020 74   @ Clemson W 76-75 55%    
  Jan 08, 2020 52   Notre Dame W 75-70 67%    
  Jan 11, 2020 57   @ Virginia Tech L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 15, 2020 51   Miami (FL) W 82-77 67%    
  Jan 18, 2020 74   Clemson W 79-72 74%    
  Jan 20, 2020 9   @ Virginia L 59-68 22%    
  Jan 25, 2020 69   @ Georgia Tech W 76-75 52%    
  Jan 27, 2020 8   North Carolina L 84-87 41%    
  Feb 01, 2020 4   Louisville L 74-79 33%    
  Feb 05, 2020 51   @ Miami (FL) L 79-80 47%    
  Feb 11, 2020 62   @ Syracuse L 72-73 48%    
  Feb 16, 2020 102   @ Boston College W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 19, 2020 2   Duke L 78-84 31%    
  Feb 22, 2020 20   Florida St. W 78-77 53%    
  Feb 25, 2020 8   @ North Carolina L 81-90 23%    
  Feb 29, 2020 95   Pittsburgh W 76-67 79%    
  Mar 02, 2020 2   @ Duke L 75-87 15%    
  Mar 06, 2020 106   Wake Forest W 84-73 82%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.7 2.2 1.0 0.1 7.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.6 3.3 0.9 0.1 9.3 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 4.4 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.0 4.4 4.6 1.4 0.1 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.6 4.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.3 2.7 4.9 2.1 0.2 10.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.6 2.4 0.3 0.0 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 3.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 6.1 11th
12th 0.2 1.5 2.4 0.8 0.1 5.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.2 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.2 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.2 6.7 8.9 11.5 12.4 13.2 12.1 10.1 7.7 4.6 2.9 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 87.0% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 45.8% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 17.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 100.0% 32.0% 68.0% 1.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.1% 100.0% 29.0% 71.0% 1.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 0.4% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 1.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.3% 100.0% 13.0% 87.0% 2.6 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.9% 100.0% 11.5% 88.5% 3.5 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 4.6% 99.8% 9.8% 90.0% 4.6 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 7.7% 98.7% 7.7% 91.0% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.6%
12-8 10.1% 95.7% 3.9% 91.8% 7.2 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.4 95.5%
11-9 12.1% 85.9% 2.4% 83.6% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.0 0.1 0.0 1.7 85.6%
10-10 13.2% 65.6% 1.3% 64.2% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.9 0.3 0.0 4.6 65.1%
9-11 12.4% 37.4% 0.8% 36.6% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.5 0.3 0.0 7.8 36.9%
8-12 11.5% 13.9% 0.4% 13.5% 10.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.1 9.9 13.6%
7-13 8.9% 3.3% 0.2% 3.1% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.6 3.1%
6-14 6.7% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.7 0.3%
5-15 4.2% 0.1% 0.1% 10.0 0.0 4.2
4-16 2.3% 2.3
3-17 1.0% 1.0
2-18 0.3% 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 52.2% 2.7% 49.5% 7.3 0.7 1.5 2.8 3.7 5.0 5.7 6.8 7.5 6.3 5.9 5.5 0.8 0.0 47.8 50.9%