Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#114
Expected Predictive Rating+2.9#128
Pace64.3#303
Improvement+1.8#110

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#129
First Shot+2.6#96
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#241
Layup/Dunks+0.3#161
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#194
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#84
Freethrows+0.2#155
Improvement+2.2#62

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#114
First Shot+2.4#96
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#210
Layups/Dunks-1.2#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#309
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#23
Freethrows+1.6#77
Improvement-0.4#202
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.9% 40.8% 34.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.3 13.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 42.2% 69.2% 24.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round36.9% 40.8% 34.4%
Second Round5.0% 5.9% 4.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.6% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 27 - 5
Quad 414 - 421 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2019 63   @ Missouri L 56-71 25%     0 - 1 -4.2 -7.0 +1.8
  Nov 12, 2019 165   @ Coastal Carolina W 69-68 53%     1 - 1 +3.9 -0.2 +4.2
  Nov 17, 2019 333   Coppin St. W 82-70 94%     2 - 1 -2.1 -0.9 -1.9
  Nov 20, 2019 101   @ Ball St. W 59-57 36%     3 - 1 +9.6 -8.3 +17.8
  Nov 23, 2019 242   Texas Southern L 96-98 2OT 85%     3 - 2 -9.5 -8.5 -0.4
  Nov 30, 2019 39   @ Arkansas L 60-66 17%     3 - 3 +8.1 -1.0 +8.9
  Dec 03, 2019 189   @ Miami (OH) W 76-54 61%     4 - 3 +23.0 +1.6 +21.5
  Dec 08, 2019 315   Eastern Kentucky W 76-57 92%     5 - 3 +6.8 -1.5 +8.5
  Dec 15, 2019 210   Illinois St. W 79-64 82%     6 - 3 +9.1 +6.7 +3.0
  Dec 21, 2019 79   @ UNC Greensboro L 50-67 28%     6 - 4 -7.2 -10.0 +1.0
  Dec 28, 2019 246   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-64 86%     7 - 4 1 - 0 +2.4 +2.2 +0.7
  Dec 30, 2019 217   Green Bay L 59-73 83%     7 - 5 1 - 1 -20.2 -16.5 -4.8
  Jan 03, 2020 268   @ Detroit Mercy L 58-66 75%     7 - 6 1 - 2 -11.1 -19.5 +8.5
  Jan 05, 2020 208   @ Oakland W 75-64 65%     8 - 6 2 - 2 +10.9 +11.4 +0.8
  Jan 10, 2020 228   @ Illinois-Chicago W 68-52 68%     9 - 6 3 - 2 +15.0 +3.1 +13.6
  Jan 12, 2020 320   @ IUPUI W 96-71 84%     10 - 6 4 - 2 +18.2 +16.7 +1.3
  Jan 16, 2020 233   Youngstown St. W 88-63 84%     11 - 6 5 - 2 +18.1 +14.8 +4.6
  Jan 18, 2020 313   Cleveland St. W 75-49 92%     12 - 6 6 - 2 +13.9 +7.1 +10.1
  Jan 24, 2020 117   @ Wright St. L 68-71 40%    
  Jan 31, 2020 217   @ Green Bay W 79-75 65%    
  Feb 02, 2020 246   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 70-64 69%    
  Feb 06, 2020 208   Oakland W 69-59 82%    
  Feb 08, 2020 268   Detroit Mercy W 77-64 89%    
  Feb 14, 2020 320   IUPUI W 79-63 94%    
  Feb 16, 2020 228   Illinois-Chicago W 72-61 84%    
  Feb 20, 2020 313   @ Cleveland St. W 71-61 83%    
  Feb 22, 2020 233   @ Youngstown St. W 70-65 67%    
  Feb 28, 2020 117   Wright St. W 71-68 62%    
Projected Record 19 - 9 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 5.4 14.7 15.9 5.3 42.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.8 12.5 18.2 11.2 1.4 47.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.4 2.7 0.5 0.0 7.8 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.6 7.8 16.1 24.1 26.0 17.4 5.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 5.3    5.3
15-3 91.9% 15.9    12.2 3.7
14-4 56.8% 14.7    7.5 7.0 0.2
13-5 22.2% 5.4    1.7 3.1 0.6 0.0
12-6 5.0% 0.8    0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.2% 42.2 26.8 14.2 1.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 5.3% 52.3% 52.3% 12.3 0.0 0.2 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 2.5
15-3 17.4% 45.7% 45.7% 13.1 0.0 1.4 4.4 2.0 0.1 0.0 9.4
14-4 26.0% 40.3% 40.3% 13.6 0.0 0.5 4.4 4.7 0.9 0.0 15.5
13-5 24.1% 34.6% 34.6% 14.0 0.1 1.8 4.6 1.8 0.1 15.7
12-6 16.1% 29.9% 29.9% 14.4 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.1 0.2 11.3
11-7 7.8% 24.9% 24.9% 14.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.2 5.8
10-8 2.6% 21.9% 21.9% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 2.1
9-9 0.7% 15.1% 15.1% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
8-10 0.1% 12.1% 12.1% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 36.9% 36.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 3.6 12.0 14.1 6.3 0.6 63.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 12.3 0.1 5.5 59.4 32.4 2.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%