San Diego St.
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#43
Expected Predictive Rating+17.5#8
Pace67.5#249
Improvement-0.6#256

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#61
First Shot+2.2#106
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#71
Layup/Dunks-3.2#283
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#59
Freethrows-2.4#300
Improvement-0.9#302

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#39
First Shot+5.2#51
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#109
Layups/Dunks+6.3#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#289
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#59
Freethrows-2.9#306
Improvement+0.3#136
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 6.8% 7.1% 0.9%
Top 6 Seed 13.5% 13.9% 3.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.3% 56.2% 34.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 37.3% 38.2% 18.0%
Average Seed 8.8 8.8 10.1
.500 or above 99.7% 99.7% 98.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.7% 97.8% 94.6%
Conference Champion 31.6% 32.0% 20.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four10.7% 10.8% 7.4%
First Round50.1% 50.9% 30.9%
Second Round26.3% 26.9% 12.5%
Sweet Sixteen10.7% 10.9% 3.5%
Elite Eight4.1% 4.2% 1.0%
Final Four1.6% 1.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: LIU Brooklyn (Home) - 96.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 2
Quad 24 - 25 - 4
Quad 39 - 214 - 6
Quad 49 - 023 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 279   Texas Southern W 77-42 96%     1 - 0 +25.7 -5.1 +29.1
  Nov 09, 2019 72   @ BYU W 76-71 53%     2 - 0 +15.1 +9.6 +5.7
  Nov 13, 2019 153   Grand Canyon W 86-61 89%     3 - 0 +22.3 +15.4 +8.2
  Nov 20, 2019 171   @ San Diego W 66-49 79%     4 - 0 +19.4 -0.4 +20.1
  Nov 22, 2019 250   LIU Brooklyn W 84-65 96%    
  Nov 25, 2019 243   Tennessee St. W 80-62 96%    
  Nov 28, 2019 44   Creighton W 73-72 50%    
  Dec 04, 2019 164   @ Colorado St. W 74-66 77%    
  Dec 08, 2019 315   San Jose St. W 81-58 98%    
  Dec 21, 2019 80   Utah W 75-71 66%    
  Dec 28, 2019 316   Cal Poly W 80-56 98%    
  Jan 01, 2020 132   Fresno St. W 75-63 85%    
  Jan 04, 2020 18   @ Utah St. L 66-72 30%    
  Jan 08, 2020 276   @ Wyoming W 68-54 89%    
  Jan 11, 2020 111   Boise St. W 75-64 83%    
  Jan 14, 2020 132   @ Fresno St. W 72-66 69%    
  Jan 18, 2020 125   Nevada W 77-66 85%    
  Jan 21, 2020 276   Wyoming W 71-51 96%    
  Jan 26, 2020 149   @ UNLV W 70-63 74%    
  Jan 29, 2020 94   @ New Mexico W 77-74 60%    
  Feb 01, 2020 18   Utah St. L 69-70 50%    
  Feb 08, 2020 192   @ Air Force W 74-64 80%    
  Feb 11, 2020 94   New Mexico W 80-71 78%    
  Feb 16, 2020 111   @ Boise St. W 72-67 65%    
  Feb 22, 2020 149   UNLV W 73-60 88%    
  Feb 25, 2020 164   Colorado St. W 77-63 89%    
  Feb 29, 2020 125   @ Nevada W 74-69 68%    
Projected Record 22 - 5 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.3 7.7 10.6 7.0 2.2 31.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.8 8.3 11.7 8.6 2.7 34.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.8 5.6 2.0 0.3 16.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.7 2.2 0.5 0.0 8.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.0 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.6 0.1 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.8 8.0 11.0 15.1 17.0 16.6 13.3 7.0 2.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.2    2.2
17-1 100.0% 7.0    6.3 0.8
16-2 79.7% 10.6    7.2 3.3 0.1
15-3 46.6% 7.7    3.8 3.5 0.5 0.0
14-4 19.4% 3.3    1.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 4.7% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.6% 31.6 20.7 9.4 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.2% 99.1% 63.4% 35.7% 3.1 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.5%
17-1 7.0% 97.1% 52.1% 45.1% 4.9 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 94.1%
16-2 13.3% 90.7% 42.7% 48.0% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 1.2 83.8%
15-3 16.6% 78.3% 36.0% 42.3% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.3 2.0 2.7 3.9 0.9 0.0 3.6 66.1%
14-4 17.0% 60.5% 29.2% 31.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.1 4.8 1.8 0.0 6.7 44.2%
13-5 15.1% 41.2% 23.1% 18.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.0 2.1 0.1 0.0 8.9 23.5%
12-6 11.0% 25.2% 16.7% 8.5% 11.5 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 8.2 10.2%
11-7 8.0% 15.8% 12.5% 3.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.7 3.8%
10-8 4.8% 10.3% 9.6% 0.7% 12.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 4.3 0.8%
9-9 2.8% 6.5% 6.2% 0.3% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 0.3%
8-10 1.3% 4.0% 3.8% 0.3% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.3 0.3%
7-11 0.6% 4.1% 4.1% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.1% 1.7% 1.7% 13.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 55.3% 28.7% 26.6% 8.8 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.3 3.4 4.9 7.4 14.6 7.6 0.5 0.0 44.7 37.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 2.2 32.4 35.6 19.6 9.7 2.1 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 99.3% 3.2 10.5 16.4 30.9 28.9 8.6 2.6 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 100.0% 3.1 14.3 23.8 22.2 22.2 11.1 4.8 1.6