San Diego St.
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.8#13
Expected Predictive Rating+24.7#2
Pace65.0#291
Improvement-2.6#284

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#31
First Shot+6.4#23
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#164
Layup/Dunks+0.8#134
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#51
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#91
Freethrows+0.8#116
Improvement-1.7#263

Defense
Total Defense+8.4#17
First Shot+7.1#22
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#79
Layups/Dunks+5.7#19
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#291
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#31
Freethrows-0.5#212
Improvement-0.9#229
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.7% 1.9% 0.3%
#1 Seed 14.1% 15.3% 3.8%
Top 2 Seed 36.4% 38.9% 15.9%
Top 4 Seed 77.0% 79.4% 57.5%
Top 6 Seed 94.2% 95.3% 85.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.7% 99.8% 98.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.2% 99.4% 97.6%
Average Seed 3.4 3.2 4.4
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 98.1% 98.8% 92.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round99.7% 99.8% 98.9%
Second Round83.8% 84.7% 76.5%
Sweet Sixteen49.2% 50.4% 39.9%
Elite Eight24.3% 25.1% 17.8%
Final Four11.0% 11.5% 7.4%
Championship Game4.7% 4.9% 3.1%
National Champion2.0% 2.0% 1.4%

Next Game: Nevada (Home) - 89.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 02 - 0
Quad 1b2 - 04 - 0
Quad 26 - 19 - 1
Quad 310 - 120 - 2
Quad 49 - 029 - 2


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 263   Texas Southern W 77-42 97%     1 - 0 +26.4 -4.7 +29.4
  Nov 09, 2019 33   @ BYU W 76-71 50%     2 - 0 +19.7 +10.7 +9.2
  Nov 13, 2019 218   Grand Canyon W 86-61 96%     3 - 0 +18.7 +13.8 +6.2
  Nov 20, 2019 198   @ San Diego W 66-49 90%     4 - 0 +17.5 -2.8 +20.6
  Nov 22, 2019 247   LIU Brooklyn W 81-64 97%     5 - 0 +9.3 -0.2 +8.8
  Nov 25, 2019 232   Tennessee St. W 62-49 97%     6 - 0 +6.0 -11.5 +18.2
  Nov 28, 2019 31   Creighton W 83-52 61%     7 - 0 +42.9 +15.4 +27.9
  Nov 29, 2019 18   Iowa W 83-73 53%     8 - 0 +24.0 +16.7 +7.6
  Dec 04, 2019 118   @ Colorado St. W 79-57 78%     9 - 0 1 - 0 +28.6 +19.5 +12.0
  Dec 08, 2019 291   San Jose St. W 59-57 98%     10 - 0 2 - 0 -8.3 -11.1 +3.1
  Dec 21, 2019 105   Utah W 80-52 83%     11 - 0 +32.5 +10.9 +23.0
  Dec 28, 2019 316   Cal Poly W 73-57 99%     12 - 0 +3.6 -10.6 +12.7
  Jan 01, 2020 137   Fresno St. W 61-52 92%     13 - 0 3 - 0 +7.9 -7.0 +15.7
  Jan 04, 2020 56   @ Utah St. W 77-68 62%     14 - 0 4 - 0 +20.7 +12.6 +8.4
  Jan 08, 2020 275   @ Wyoming W 72-52 95%     15 - 0 5 - 0 +16.5 +9.7 +9.3
  Jan 11, 2020 113   Boise St. W 83-65 90%     16 - 0 6 - 0 +19.0 +11.5 +7.9
  Jan 14, 2020 137   @ Fresno St. W 64-55 83%     17 - 0 7 - 0 +13.7 +1.3 +13.5
  Jan 18, 2020 100   Nevada W 75-62 89%    
  Jan 21, 2020 275   Wyoming W 73-49 99%    
  Jan 26, 2020 135   @ UNLV W 71-61 82%    
  Jan 29, 2020 116   @ New Mexico W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 01, 2020 56   Utah St. W 71-62 80%    
  Feb 08, 2020 150   @ Air Force W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 11, 2020 116   New Mexico W 80-66 90%    
  Feb 16, 2020 113   @ Boise St. W 73-65 77%    
  Feb 22, 2020 135   UNLV W 74-58 93%    
  Feb 25, 2020 118   Colorado St. W 74-60 91%    
  Feb 29, 2020 100   @ Nevada W 72-65 74%    
Projected Record 26 - 2 16 - 2





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.2 5.3 14.7 25.7 30.9 20.2 98.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.0 1.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 5.9 14.7 25.7 30.9 20.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 20.2    20.2
17-1 100.0% 30.9    30.9
16-2 100.0% 25.7    25.7 0.1
15-3 99.7% 14.7    13.8 0.9 0.0
14-4 90.2% 5.3    3.8 1.4 0.1
13-5 60.1% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 15.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 98.1% 98.1 94.8 3.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 20.2% 100.0% 68.9% 31.1% 1.9 8.1 7.8 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
17-1 30.9% 100.0% 62.6% 37.3% 2.6 5.1 10.3 8.8 5.1 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
16-2 25.7% 99.9% 57.5% 42.4% 3.6 0.8 3.7 6.8 8.7 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-3 14.7% 99.7% 53.4% 46.3% 4.8 0.0 0.4 1.8 4.3 4.3 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3%
14-4 5.9% 98.6% 46.8% 51.8% 6.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 97.3%
13-5 2.0% 96.4% 43.2% 53.2% 7.4 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 93.6%
12-6 0.5% 92.2% 40.6% 51.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 86.9%
11-7 0.1% 72.2% 27.8% 44.4% 9.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 61.5%
10-8 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.7% 59.8% 39.9% 3.4 14.1 22.3 20.9 19.7 11.0 6.2 2.9 1.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.3 99.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 13.9% 100.0% 1.7 46.7 39.0 12.4 1.9 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.7% 99.9% 2.1 29.4 39.3 24.0 6.7 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.1% 100.0% 2.2 26.6 38.2 23.8 10.2 0.8 0.5