Stephen F. Austin
Southland
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.7#139
Expected Predictive Rating+8.9#64
Pace75.1#49
Improvement-5.7#345

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#175
First Shot+0.5#154
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#202
Layup/Dunks+4.6#29
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#230
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#289
Freethrows+0.4#143
Improvement-1.2#241

Defense
Total Defense+1.5#125
First Shot-0.4#172
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#41
Layups/Dunks+3.7#51
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#8
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#285
Freethrows-4.5#346
Improvement-4.4#344
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 42.1% 43.5% 36.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 13.2 13.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 64.6% 69.1% 46.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round42.1% 43.5% 36.4%
Second Round4.4% 4.7% 3.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northwestern St. (Away) - 80.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 11 - 2
Quad 20 - 01 - 2
Quad 33 - 14 - 4
Quad 420 - 323 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 297   NC Central W 94-64 87%     1 - 0 +19.4 +3.3 +11.5
  Nov 13, 2019 289   Niagara W 89-80 87%     2 - 0 -1.4 +0.6 -2.7
  Nov 16, 2019 199   Drexel W 82-67 75%     3 - 0 +9.6 -5.6 +13.0
  Nov 20, 2019 32   @ Rutgers L 57-69 12%     3 - 1 +2.7 -5.5 +8.3
  Nov 26, 2019 2   @ Duke W 85-83 OT 3%     4 - 1 +25.0 +9.1 +15.6
  Nov 30, 2019 213   @ Arkansas St. W 76-57 58%     5 - 1 +18.6 -7.4 +23.9
  Dec 06, 2019 36   @ Alabama L 68-78 12%     5 - 2 +4.4 -2.5 +7.5
  Dec 14, 2019 258   Louisiana Monroe W 66-59 83%     6 - 2 -1.2 -3.4 +3.0
  Dec 18, 2019 344   Houston Baptist W 96-68 95%     7 - 2 1 - 0 +10.2 -8.0 +14.3
  Dec 21, 2019 275   @ McNeese St. W 81-73 70%     8 - 2 2 - 0 +4.4 -1.6 +5.5
  Jan 02, 2020 326   @ SE Louisiana W 82-71 80%     9 - 2 3 - 0 +3.7 +2.2 +1.0
  Jan 04, 2020 324   @ New Orleans W 87-68 80%     10 - 2 4 - 0 +12.0 +8.6 +3.2
  Jan 08, 2020 293   TX A&M Corpus Christi L 72-73 87%     10 - 3 4 - 1 -11.4 -1.8 -9.7
  Jan 15, 2020 306   @ Central Arkansas W 77-76 77%     11 - 3 5 - 1 -5.0 -0.6 -4.4
  Jan 18, 2020 347   Incarnate Word W 80-56 96%     12 - 3 6 - 1 +4.8 -4.6 +8.6
  Jan 22, 2020 328   @ Northwestern St. W 79-70 81%    
  Jan 25, 2020 278   @ Lamar W 72-67 69%    
  Jan 29, 2020 206   Abilene Christian W 74-67 76%    
  Feb 01, 2020 185   @ Sam Houston St. L 74-75 48%    
  Feb 05, 2020 209   Nicholls St. W 75-67 77%    
  Feb 08, 2020 324   New Orleans W 82-68 91%    
  Feb 12, 2020 293   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69-62 72%    
  Feb 19, 2020 306   Central Arkansas W 87-74 89%    
  Feb 22, 2020 347   @ Incarnate Word W 77-62 92%    
  Feb 26, 2020 328   Northwestern St. W 82-67 92%    
  Feb 29, 2020 278   Lamar W 75-64 85%    
  Mar 03, 2020 206   @ Abilene Christian W 72-70 56%    
  Mar 07, 2020 185   Sam Houston St. W 77-72 70%    
Projected Record 22 - 6 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.2 17.2 21.4 14.2 4.7 64.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.9 8.7 5.4 0.6 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.7 2.4 0.2 9.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 2.3 1.3 0.2 4.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 5.3 10.7 17.4 22.8 22.0 14.2 4.7 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 4.7    4.7
18-2 100.0% 14.2    14.1 0.1
17-3 97.3% 21.4    18.3 3.0 0.1
16-4 75.5% 17.2    9.5 6.7 1.0 0.0
15-5 35.5% 6.2    1.7 2.8 1.4 0.2
14-6 7.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 64.6% 64.6 48.5 13.0 2.8 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 4.7% 59.2% 59.2% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.3 0.0 1.9 0.1%
18-2 14.2% 55.6% 55.6% 12.6 0.0 3.4 4.0 0.5 0.0 6.3
17-3 22.0% 49.5% 49.5% 13.1 0.0 1.9 6.5 2.3 0.1 11.1
16-4 22.8% 44.2% 44.2% 13.4 0.6 4.8 4.2 0.5 0.0 12.7
15-5 17.4% 36.0% 36.0% 13.8 0.1 1.8 3.3 1.0 0.0 11.1
14-6 10.7% 26.5% 26.5% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.0 7.9
13-7 5.3% 19.2% 19.2% 14.5 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 4.3
12-8 1.9% 13.7% 13.7% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.7
11-9 0.6% 8.1% 8.1% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-10 0.2% 0.2
9-11 0.0% 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 42.1% 42.1% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 8.1 18.0 12.3 3.2 0.2 57.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.8% 100.0% 12.0 0.3 0.8 13.8 72.7 12.4 0.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0% 0.1% 11.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9%