Rutgers
Big Ten
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#33
Expected Predictive Rating+12.7#32
Pace68.5#208
Improvement+4.7#23

Offense
Total Offense+3.4#81
First Shot+1.9#110
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#75
Layup/Dunks+8.0#4
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#249
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#300
Freethrows-0.5#209
Improvement+1.4#101

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#13
First Shot+6.4#27
After Offensive Rebounds+1.9#35
Layups/Dunks+2.0#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#23
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#174
Freethrows+1.9#64
Improvement+3.3#29
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.9% 1.5% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 8.3% 12.1% 3.8%
Top 6 Seed 30.5% 39.3% 19.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 78.8% 86.4% 69.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 78.0% 85.7% 68.9%
Average Seed 7.2 6.8 7.8
.500 or above 99.1% 99.9% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 79.7% 89.5% 67.8%
Conference Champion 3.7% 5.9% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four4.4% 3.0% 6.1%
First Round76.7% 84.9% 66.8%
Second Round44.5% 51.7% 35.9%
Sweet Sixteen17.4% 21.0% 13.1%
Elite Eight6.8% 8.2% 5.1%
Final Four2.6% 3.2% 1.9%
Championship Game0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.3%

Next Game: Purdue (Home) - 54.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 83 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 27 - 10
Quad 24 - 111 - 11
Quad 33 - 114 - 12
Quad 46 - 020 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2019 241   Bryant W 73-71 95%     1 - 0 -5.5 -14.7 +8.9
  Nov 10, 2019 294   Niagara W 86-39 97%     2 - 0 +36.5 +12.5 +28.3
  Nov 13, 2019 223   Drexel W 62-57 95%     3 - 0 -1.6 -11.1 +9.7
  Nov 16, 2019 119   St. Bonaventure L 74-80 79%     3 - 1 -2.9 +10.3 -13.8
  Nov 20, 2019 138   Stephen F. Austin W 69-57 88%     4 - 1 +10.8 -3.9 +14.6
  Nov 26, 2019 256   NJIT W 85-58 96%     5 - 1 +18.7 +12.7 +7.5
  Nov 29, 2019 195   Massachusetts W 82-57 93%     6 - 1 +19.9 +1.3 +17.1
  Dec 03, 2019 72   @ Pittsburgh L 60-71 56%     6 - 2 -0.8 -5.2 +4.2
  Dec 08, 2019 4   @ Michigan St. L 65-77 19%     6 - 3 0 - 1 +9.1 -1.0 +10.6
  Dec 11, 2019 31   Wisconsin W 72-65 59%     7 - 3 1 - 1 +16.4 +9.8 +7.0
  Dec 14, 2019 10   Seton Hall W 68-48 47%     8 - 3 +32.6 +2.3 +30.3
  Dec 22, 2019 199   Lafayette W 63-44 94%     9 - 3 +13.6 -15.4 +28.9
  Jan 03, 2020 115   @ Nebraska W 79-62 70%     10 - 3 2 - 1 +23.3 +14.2 +10.3
  Jan 07, 2020 24   Penn St. W 72-61 57%     11 - 3 3 - 1 +21.0 +2.4 +18.4
  Jan 11, 2020 25   @ Illinois L 51-54 34%     11 - 4 3 - 2 +12.9 -9.8 +22.4
  Jan 15, 2020 37   Indiana W 59-50 62%     12 - 4 4 - 2 +17.5 -7.8 +25.6
  Jan 19, 2020 39   Minnesota W 64-56 64%     13 - 4 5 - 2 +16.1 +11.2 +7.1
  Jan 22, 2020 15   @ Iowa L 80-85 30%     13 - 5 5 - 3 +12.1 +10.5 +1.7
  Jan 25, 2020 115   Nebraska W 75-72 85%     14 - 5 6 - 3 +3.5 -0.5 +3.9
  Jan 28, 2020 19   Purdue W 61-60 55%    
  Feb 01, 2020 30   Michigan L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 04, 2020 8   @ Maryland L 61-68 25%    
  Feb 09, 2020 108   Northwestern W 70-60 84%    
  Feb 12, 2020 13   @ Ohio St. L 62-68 29%    
  Feb 15, 2020 25   Illinois W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 19, 2020 30   Michigan W 68-66 58%    
  Feb 23, 2020 31   @ Wisconsin L 58-62 37%    
  Feb 26, 2020 24   @ Penn St. L 68-72 35%    
  Mar 03, 2020 8   Maryland L 64-66 44%    
  Mar 07, 2020 19   @ Purdue L 58-63 33%    
Projected Record 19 - 11 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.4 0.1 3.7 1st
2nd 1.0 4.3 3.7 0.8 0.0 9.7 2nd
3rd 0.3 5.0 5.6 0.9 0.1 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 2.5 8.1 1.5 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.4 7.5 4.1 0.1 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 2.9 7.5 0.8 11.3 6th
7th 0.5 7.4 3.0 0.0 10.8 7th
8th 0.0 2.6 6.0 0.3 9.0 8th
9th 0.7 4.7 1.9 0.0 7.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 3.7 0.2 5.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.6 0.9 0.0 3.9 11th
12th 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.1 2.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.4 1.6 5.9 12.5 18.9 21.1 19.1 12.0 5.9 2.1 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 88.2% 0.4    0.2 0.1
15-5 62.1% 1.3    0.6 0.6 0.1
14-6 23.0% 1.4    0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.2% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.7% 3.7 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 38.0% 62.0% 1.7 0.0 0.1 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 24.6% 75.4% 2.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.1% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 3.4 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 5.9% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 4.5 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-7 12.0% 99.9% 8.4% 91.5% 5.5 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.6 4.1 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 19.1% 98.8% 5.2% 93.6% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.5 4.9 6.1 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.8%
11-9 21.1% 95.7% 2.4% 93.3% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.0 5.7 4.1 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.9 95.6%
10-10 18.9% 78.2% 1.4% 76.8% 9.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 3.1 3.3 3.7 2.6 0.2 4.1 77.9%
9-11 12.5% 31.6% 0.2% 31.4% 10.5 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 0.4 8.6 31.5%
8-12 5.9% 6.6% 0.2% 6.4% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 5.5 6.4%
7-13 1.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 1.5 0.8%
6-14 0.4% 0.4
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 78.8% 3.7% 75.1% 7.2 0.2 0.7 2.5 4.9 9.2 12.9 14.3 12.7 8.9 6.5 5.2 0.7 21.2 78.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%