Texas Southern
Southwestern Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#244
Expected Predictive Rating-2.1#198
Pace81.3#14
Improvement+0.1#174

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#241
First Shot-2.5#261
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#156
Layup/Dunks+0.3#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#127
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.9#335
Freethrows+2.3#32
Improvement+0.7#132

Defense
Total Defense-2.5#240
First Shot-1.1#195
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#292
Layups/Dunks-1.5#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#109
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#163
Freethrows-1.1#260
Improvement-0.6#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.0% 27.3% 23.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 75.1% 77.3% 50.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 38.9% 40.5% 21.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.2% 13.1% 14.2%
First Round20.3% 20.7% 16.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arkansas Pine Bluff (Home) - 91.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 6
Quad 20 - 20 - 8
Quad 31 - 31 - 11
Quad 416 - 417 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 13   @ San Diego St. L 42-77 3%     0 - 1 -17.4 -22.6 +6.8
  Nov 09, 2019 40   @ Wichita St. L 63-69 5%     0 - 2 +7.9 -5.9 +14.4
  Nov 15, 2019 173   @ South Dakota L 69-88 25%     0 - 3 -16.7 -8.0 -8.4
  Nov 19, 2019 38   @ Arkansas L 51-82 5%     0 - 4 -16.7 -17.8 +4.0
  Nov 23, 2019 127   @ Northern Kentucky W 98-96 2OT 17%     1 - 4 +7.3 -0.4 +7.1
  Nov 25, 2019 185   @ Montana L 62-74 26%     1 - 5 -10.1 -12.3 +2.9
  Nov 30, 2019 278   Lamar W 76-73 67%     2 - 5 -6.5 -6.2 -0.5
  Dec 04, 2019 3   @ Gonzaga L 62-101 1%     2 - 6 -16.6 -8.3 -4.5
  Dec 18, 2019 89   @ Nevada L 73-91 11%     2 - 7 -9.1 -5.0 -2.0
  Dec 21, 2019 18   @ Oregon L 78-84 3%     2 - 8 +10.6 +10.8 -0.1
  Dec 28, 2019 67   @ Arizona St. L 81-98 8%     2 - 9 -6.3 +6.4 -10.7
  Dec 30, 2019 131   @ Texas A&M L 55-58 18%     2 - 10 +2.0 -10.7 +12.6
  Jan 04, 2020 331   Southern W 77-68 80%     3 - 10 1 - 0 -4.6 -4.4 -0.3
  Jan 06, 2020 305   Alcorn St. L 80-95 74%     3 - 11 1 - 1 -26.5 -6.9 -18.0
  Jan 11, 2020 205   Prairie View W 71-67 53%     4 - 11 2 - 1 -1.7 -6.5 +4.6
  Jan 18, 2020 329   @ Jackson St. W 77-66 61%     5 - 11 3 - 1 +3.4 +5.5 -1.8
  Jan 20, 2020 319   @ Grambling St. W 68-61 57%     6 - 11 4 - 1 +0.3 -8.9 +8.9
  Jan 25, 2020 352   Mississippi Valley W 80-67 95%     7 - 11 5 - 1 -10.8 -19.0 +5.9
  Jan 27, 2020 346   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 76-61 92%    
  Feb 01, 2020 342   @ Alabama A&M W 77-71 70%    
  Feb 03, 2020 341   @ Alabama St. W 77-72 70%    
  Feb 08, 2020 205   @ Prairie View L 74-79 31%    
  Feb 15, 2020 329   Jackson St. W 78-69 79%    
  Feb 17, 2020 319   Grambling St. W 79-71 77%    
  Feb 22, 2020 352   @ Mississippi Valley W 92-79 90%    
  Feb 24, 2020 346   @ Arkansas Pine Bluff W 73-64 79%    
  Feb 29, 2020 342   Alabama A&M W 79-68 85%    
  Mar 02, 2020 341   Alabama St. W 80-69 85%    
  Mar 05, 2020 331   @ Southern W 74-71 60%    
  Mar 07, 2020 305   @ Alcorn St. W 78-77 53%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southwestern Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.8 9.0 14.2 10.1 2.5 38.9 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 7.0 15.0 14.2 6.3 0.6 44.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.5 5.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 12.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 1.4 0.3 2.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.4 6.3 12.6 20.3 23.8 20.5 10.7 2.5 Total



Southwestern Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.5    2.5
16-2 94.6% 10.1    8.0 2.2
15-3 69.3% 14.2    8.4 5.7 0.1
14-4 37.8% 9.0    4.0 4.6 0.5 0.0
13-5 13.7% 2.8    0.6 1.6 0.6 0.0
12-6 2.8% 0.4    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 38.9% 38.9 23.4 14.1 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.5% 39.9% 39.9% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 1.5
16-2 10.7% 37.4% 37.4% 15.4 0.0 0.1 2.1 1.8 6.7
15-3 20.5% 33.1% 33.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.7 5.0 13.7
14-4 23.8% 28.3% 28.3% 15.9 0.7 6.1 17.0
13-5 20.3% 23.1% 23.1% 16.0 0.2 4.5 15.6
12-6 12.6% 18.6% 18.6% 16.0 2.4 10.3
11-7 6.3% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 1.0 5.3
10-8 2.4% 10.7% 10.7% 16.0 0.3 2.2
9-9 0.7% 19.4% 19.4% 16.0 0.1 0.5
8-10 0.2% 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 27.0% 27.0% 0.0% 15.7 0.1 0.7 5.1 21.1 73.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 14.4 7.9 42.6 46.5 3.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%