Utah St.
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#58
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#68
Pace69.6#170
Improvement-7.7#352

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#55
First Shot+2.7#90
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#63
Layup/Dunks+3.4#57
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.5#327
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#247
Freethrows+4.5#1
Improvement-4.0#340

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#76
First Shot+2.0#109
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#37
Layups/Dunks+0.0#172
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#137
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#188
Freethrows+1.3#106
Improvement-3.7#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.1% 21.3% 13.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.5% 6.3% 1.6%
Average Seed 11.0 11.0 11.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.2% 96.2% 82.5%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.7% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.5% 3.9% 1.3%
First Round18.3% 19.2% 12.7%
Second Round6.2% 6.6% 4.1%
Sweet Sixteen2.2% 2.4% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.7% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 85.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 31 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 4
Quad 22 - 34 - 7
Quad 37 - 311 - 10
Quad 410 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 248   Montana St. W 81-73 93%     1 - 0 +0.2 +0.7 -0.9
  Nov 08, 2019 276   Weber St. W 89-34 94%     2 - 0 +45.8 +17.3 +32.1
  Nov 12, 2019 319   Denver W 97-56 96%     3 - 0 +28.7 +14.3 +12.7
  Nov 15, 2019 296   N.C. A&T W 81-54 95%     4 - 0 +16.4 +4.6 +11.7
  Nov 18, 2019 161   Texas San Antonio W 82-50 85%     5 - 0 +29.4 -0.3 +27.5
  Nov 22, 2019 31   LSU W 80-78 37%     6 - 0 +14.0 +5.1 +8.8
  Nov 24, 2019 93   North Texas W 68-59 61%     7 - 0 +14.5 +0.9 +14.0
  Nov 29, 2019 38   @ St. Mary's L 73-81 29%     7 - 1 +6.2 +4.2 +2.1
  Dec 04, 2019 287   @ San Jose St. W 71-59 88%     8 - 1 1 - 0 +7.4 +0.1 +8.1
  Dec 07, 2019 132   Fresno St. W 77-70 OT 81%     9 - 1 2 - 0 +6.4 -2.9 +8.7
  Dec 14, 2019 37   BYU L 64-68 39%     9 - 2 +7.4 +0.4 +6.7
  Dec 18, 2019 113   South Florida W 76-74 OT 67%     10 - 2 +5.9 +7.6 -1.7
  Dec 21, 2019 20   Florida W 65-62 30%     11 - 2 +16.9 +2.0 +15.0
  Jan 01, 2020 124   @ UNLV L 53-70 61%     11 - 3 2 - 1 -11.4 -17.1 +5.1
  Jan 04, 2020 12   San Diego St. L 68-77 37%     11 - 4 2 - 2 +3.0 +4.9 -2.2
  Jan 07, 2020 158   @ Air Force L 60-79 69%     11 - 5 2 - 3 -15.7 -15.1 -0.9
  Jan 11, 2020 99   Nevada W 80-70 74%     12 - 5 3 - 3 +11.9 +8.0 +3.9
  Jan 18, 2020 107   @ Boise St. L 83-88 OT 56%     12 - 6 3 - 4 +2.0 +0.8 +2.0
  Jan 21, 2020 158   Air Force W 80-69 85%    
  Jan 25, 2020 106   Colorado St. W 74-67 75%    
  Jan 28, 2020 281   @ Wyoming W 70-57 88%    
  Feb 01, 2020 12   @ San Diego St. L 62-71 19%    
  Feb 05, 2020 124   UNLV W 74-65 79%    
  Feb 08, 2020 107   Boise St. W 76-69 75%    
  Feb 11, 2020 106   @ Colorado St. W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 15, 2020 132   @ Fresno St. W 67-64 62%    
  Feb 19, 2020 281   Wyoming W 73-55 96%    
  Feb 25, 2020 287   San Jose St. W 83-64 96%    
  Feb 29, 2020 123   @ New Mexico W 79-76 60%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 1st
2nd 0.2 6.5 15.8 10.3 1.6 34.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 3.6 14.0 6.3 0.8 0.0 24.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 9.1 5.7 0.3 15.8 4th
5th 0.1 3.6 6.4 0.5 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 4.8 1.2 0.0 6.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 2.1 1.8 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 4.4 11.1 20.6 26.8 22.5 11.3 2.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 17.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0
13-5 2.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.0% 73.3% 32.8% 40.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 60.3%
13-5 11.3% 42.2% 23.3% 18.9% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.5 0.7 6.6 24.6%
12-6 22.5% 25.2% 19.4% 5.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.2 2.0 0.0 16.8 7.2%
11-7 26.8% 17.1% 15.7% 1.4% 11.5 0.1 2.0 2.4 0.0 22.2 1.7%
10-8 20.6% 11.7% 11.4% 0.3% 11.8 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.1 0.0 18.2 0.3%
9-9 11.1% 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 12.0 0.1 0.8 0.1 10.1 0.0%
8-10 4.4% 4.8% 4.8% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.2
7-11 1.2% 2.3% 2.3% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
6-12 0.3% 5.5% 5.5% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.1% 15.4% 4.7% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.7 8.7 7.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 79.9 5.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 5.7 3.2 18.7 22.4 31.2 14.0 7.9 2.4 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 68.2% 9.5 0.2 3.2 10.3 18.6 19.1 15.0 1.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 59.3% 10.0 0.8 4.9 15.2 13.1 24.5 0.8