Utah St.
Mountain West
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#18
Expected Predictive Rating+5.5#98
Pace69.6#178
Improvement+0.6#104

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#20
First Shot+0.1#162
After Offensive Rebound+7.3#4
Layup/Dunks+5.3#39
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#323
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#288
Freethrows+2.2#69
Improvement-1.2#320

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#41
First Shot+0.6#149
After Offensive Rebounds+5.7#8
Layups/Dunks+4.0#60
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#332
Freethrows+0.9#142
Improvement+1.8#7
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.7% 2.5% 0.7%
Top 2 Seed 4.6% 6.7% 1.8%
Top 4 Seed 14.2% 19.7% 7.2%
Top 6 Seed 23.9% 31.2% 14.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 71.4% 78.4% 62.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.2% 54.2% 33.4%
Average Seed 8.0 7.4 8.9
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.8%
Conference Champion 68.6% 71.6% 64.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.6% 6.8% 6.4%
First Round68.5% 75.6% 59.6%
Second Round42.9% 49.6% 34.3%
Sweet Sixteen20.4% 24.6% 15.1%
Elite Eight9.8% 12.1% 6.9%
Final Four4.3% 5.5% 2.6%
Championship Game1.9% 2.7% 1.0%
National Champion0.9% 1.2% 0.4%

Next Game: LSU (Neutral) - 56.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 12 - 2
Quad 24 - 26 - 4
Quad 39 - 115 - 5
Quad 411 - 025 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 211   Montana St. W 81-73 95%     1 - 0 +2.4 +1.6 +0.4
  Nov 08, 2019 276   Weber St. W 89-34 97%     2 - 0 +46.0 +16.7 +33.0
  Nov 12, 2019 293   Denver W 97-56 98%     3 - 0 +30.7 +13.8 +15.2
  Nov 15, 2019 327   N.C. A&T W 81-54 99%     4 - 0 +13.0 +2.5 +10.4
  Nov 18, 2019 216   Texas San Antonio W 82-50 96%     5 - 0 +26.1 -0.9 +24.8
  Nov 22, 2019 33   LSU W 79-77 56%    
  Nov 29, 2019 34   @ St. Mary's L 65-66 46%    
  Dec 04, 2019 323   @ San Jose St. W 83-62 98%    
  Dec 07, 2019 123   Fresno St. W 77-63 90%    
  Dec 14, 2019 71   BYU W 79-73 71%    
  Dec 18, 2019 141   South Florida W 74-62 86%    
  Dec 21, 2019 30   Florida W 65-64 55%    
  Jan 01, 2020 146   @ UNLV W 74-64 81%    
  Jan 04, 2020 47   San Diego St. W 73-66 72%    
  Jan 07, 2020 174   @ Air Force W 76-65 85%    
  Jan 11, 2020 126   Nevada W 81-67 90%    
  Jan 18, 2020 120   @ Boise St. W 79-71 76%    
  Jan 21, 2020 174   Air Force W 79-62 94%    
  Jan 25, 2020 150   Colorado St. W 80-64 92%    
  Jan 28, 2020 277   @ Wyoming W 72-55 93%    
  Feb 01, 2020 47   @ San Diego St. W 70-69 53%    
  Feb 05, 2020 146   UNLV W 77-61 91%    
  Feb 08, 2020 120   Boise St. W 82-68 88%    
  Feb 11, 2020 150   @ Colorado St. W 77-67 81%    
  Feb 15, 2020 123   @ Fresno St. W 74-66 76%    
  Feb 19, 2020 277   Wyoming W 75-52 98%    
  Feb 25, 2020 323   San Jose St. W 86-59 99%    
  Feb 29, 2020 95   @ New Mexico W 82-76 69%    
Projected Record 23 - 5 15 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Mountain West Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.2 13.3 19.9 18.5 10.2 68.6 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.6 7.0 5.4 1.8 0.0 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 2.3 2.5 1.0 0.1 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.3 2.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.5 4.6 8.8 13.1 18.8 21.7 18.6 10.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 10.2    10.2
17-1 99.9% 18.5    17.5 1.0
16-2 91.7% 19.9    16.7 3.3 0.0
15-3 70.7% 13.3    8.7 4.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 39.2% 5.2    2.0 2.5 0.5 0.0
13-5 15.8% 1.4    0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 68.6% 68.6 55.5 11.5 1.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 10.2% 98.4% 68.5% 29.9% 3.7 1.4 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 95.0%
17-1 18.6% 93.4% 63.1% 30.4% 6.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 2.9 2.5 2.0 1.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.1 1.2 82.2%
16-2 21.7% 84.6% 53.3% 31.3% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 1.6 2.1 2.3 2.8 2.8 3.5 0.8 0.0 3.3 67.0%
15-3 18.8% 70.5% 47.0% 23.5% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.8 5.0 1.8 0.1 0.0 5.5 44.4%
14-4 13.1% 53.2% 38.2% 15.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.0 1.8 0.2 0.0 6.1 24.3%
13-5 8.8% 36.5% 30.2% 6.3% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.3 0.2 0.0 5.6 9.0%
12-6 4.6% 28.9% 24.4% 4.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 3.3 5.9%
11-7 2.5% 21.0% 20.7% 0.3% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.3%
10-8 1.1% 23.3% 23.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8
9-9 0.4% 26.5% 26.5% 12.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
8-10 0.1% 19.5% 19.5% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 71.4% 48.8% 22.6% 8.0 1.7 2.9 4.0 5.6 5.1 4.6 5.0 5.0 6.4 8.6 14.4 7.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 28.6 44.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.6% 100.0% 1.9 35.8 42.3 16.1 4.4 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3% 100.0% 2.6 20.0 34.8 19.4 16.1 9.0 0.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 3.3 4.9 23.2 27.5 31.7 4.2 8.5