Florida
Southeastern
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+13.7#18
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#45
Pace64.2#303
Improvement+3.9#31

Offense
Total Offense+7.5#17
First Shot+5.2#41
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#33
Layup/Dunks+1.5#109
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#74
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#158
Freethrows+1.3#83
Improvement+5.1#6

Defense
Total Defense+6.2#37
First Shot+5.3#45
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#99
Layups/Dunks+3.8#44
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#264
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#33
Freethrows-1.0#250
Improvement-1.2#255
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.3% 2.3% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 7.1% 1.5%
Top 4 Seed 17.1% 24.1% 10.4%
Top 6 Seed 37.6% 49.1% 26.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 87.6% 94.0% 81.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 84.9% 92.5% 78.0%
Average Seed 6.8 6.3 7.4
.500 or above 99.7% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 97.8% 98.4% 97.2%
Conference Champion 21.6% 23.8% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four4.0% 2.5% 5.4%
First Round85.8% 92.9% 79.2%
Second Round57.1% 64.5% 50.0%
Sweet Sixteen26.8% 32.2% 21.6%
Elite Eight12.9% 16.0% 10.0%
Final Four5.7% 7.0% 4.4%
Championship Game2.4% 3.0% 1.9%
National Champion1.1% 1.4% 0.8%

Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 7
Quad 28 - 413 - 11
Quad 35 - 018 - 11
Quad 44 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 158   North Florida W 74-59 93%     1 - 0 +12.5 -2.4 +15.2
  Nov 10, 2019 15   Florida St. L 51-63 59%     1 - 1 -0.6 -10.0 +8.3
  Nov 14, 2019 173   Towson W 66-60 94%     2 - 1 +2.6 -2.3 +5.5
  Nov 17, 2019 72   @ Connecticut L 59-62 63%     2 - 2 +7.2 -3.1 +10.2
  Nov 21, 2019 240   Saint Joseph's W 70-62 94%     3 - 2 +3.5 -6.4 +9.9
  Nov 22, 2019 96   Miami (FL) W 78-58 79%     4 - 2 +25.2 +9.2 +17.2
  Nov 24, 2019 53   Xavier W 70-65 65%     5 - 2 +14.8 +6.4 +8.6
  Nov 29, 2019 163   Marshall W 73-67 93%     6 - 2 +3.3 -2.7 +5.8
  Dec 07, 2019 21   @ Butler L 62-76 40%     6 - 3 +2.2 +2.2 -1.1
  Dec 17, 2019 63   Providence W 83-51 70%     7 - 3 +40.2 +16.7 +24.1
  Dec 21, 2019 56   Utah St. L 62-65 68%     7 - 4 +6.0 -2.9 +8.8
  Dec 28, 2019 292   Long Beach St. W 102-63 98%     8 - 4 +28.4 +14.8 +9.7
  Jan 04, 2020 34   Alabama W 104-98 2OT 68%     9 - 4 1 - 0 +15.0 +10.8 +2.7
  Jan 07, 2020 91   @ South Carolina W 81-68 69%     10 - 4 2 - 0 +21.7 +9.4 +11.6
  Jan 11, 2020 79   @ Missouri L 75-91 65%     10 - 5 2 - 1 -6.2 +12.8 -20.0
  Jan 14, 2020 112   Mississippi W 71-55 88%     11 - 5 3 - 1 +16.9 +6.3 +12.3
  Jan 18, 2020 27   Auburn W 69-47 65%     12 - 5 4 - 1 +31.7 +9.1 +25.2
  Jan 21, 2020 33   @ LSU L 82-84 45%     12 - 6 4 - 2 +13.0 +11.3 +1.7
  Jan 25, 2020 5   Baylor L 64-65 49%    
  Jan 28, 2020 41   Mississippi St. W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 01, 2020 154   @ Vanderbilt W 75-65 82%    
  Feb 05, 2020 74   Georgia W 75-66 81%    
  Feb 08, 2020 112   @ Mississippi W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 12, 2020 128   @ Texas A&M W 66-58 77%    
  Feb 15, 2020 154   Vanderbilt W 78-62 93%    
  Feb 18, 2020 40   Arkansas W 71-65 71%    
  Feb 22, 2020 13   @ Kentucky L 66-70 36%    
  Feb 26, 2020 33   LSU W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 29, 2020 51   @ Tennessee W 64-63 53%    
  Mar 04, 2020 74   @ Georgia W 73-69 63%    
  Mar 07, 2020 13   Kentucky W 69-67 58%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.4 3.6 8.8 7.1 1.8 21.6 1st
2nd 0.1 3.8 10.5 6.0 0.8 0.0 21.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 9.2 6.1 0.6 18.0 3rd
4th 0.6 6.5 6.4 0.8 0.0 14.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 5.6 1.4 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 4.1 1.7 0.1 6.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.9 1.8 0.2 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.4 2.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.3 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.7 4.6 9.8 16.1 21.2 21.0 15.4 7.9 1.8 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 99.4% 1.8    1.7 0.1
15-3 90.4% 7.1    5.0 2.0 0.1
14-4 56.8% 8.8    3.1 4.0 1.5 0.2
13-5 17.0% 3.6    0.4 1.1 1.4 0.6 0.1
12-6 1.8% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 21.6% 21.6 10.2 7.2 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.8% 100.0% 39.5% 60.5% 2.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 7.9% 99.9% 27.5% 72.4% 3.4 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.1 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 99.8%
14-4 15.4% 99.7% 26.0% 73.8% 4.9 0.2 0.8 2.0 3.4 3.6 2.9 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-5 21.0% 98.2% 21.0% 77.2% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 3.4 4.2 5.0 3.1 1.9 0.5 0.2 0.4 97.7%
12-6 21.2% 94.2% 16.8% 77.5% 7.8 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.9 4.2 5.0 3.5 2.1 0.7 0.0 1.2 93.1%
11-7 16.1% 85.8% 11.8% 74.0% 8.8 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.7 3.5 3.3 1.7 0.1 2.3 83.9%
10-8 9.8% 63.2% 7.0% 56.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.9 1.7 0.2 3.6 60.4%
9-9 4.6% 38.5% 7.8% 30.7% 10.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.1 2.8 33.3%
8-10 1.7% 11.9% 3.0% 8.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5 9.2%
7-11 0.4% 2.3% 2.3% 11.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 87.6% 17.9% 69.8% 6.8 1.3 2.9 5.1 7.8 9.4 11.1 13.1 12.5 10.5 8.3 5.2 0.5 12.4 84.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.3 67.5 32.5