Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.5#258
Expected Predictive Rating-7.2#282
Pace72.2#96
Improvement-1.0#225

Offense
Total Offense-4.5#299
First Shot-2.6#265
After Offensive Rebound-1.9#308
Layup/Dunks+2.2#88
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#267
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#244
Freethrows-1.1#263
Improvement-2.9#316

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#195
First Shot-0.8#187
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#182
Layups/Dunks-0.7#208
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#286
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#73
Freethrows-0.8#239
Improvement+1.9#66
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.7% 4.4% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.3% 2.3% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 45.0% 63.4% 29.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.4% 4.0% 2.9%
First Round2.2% 2.7% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 45.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 48 - 1011 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 314   @ Denver L 62-74 53%     0 - 1 -18.3 -11.5 -7.2
  Nov 15, 2019 190   @ UAB W 66-55 25%     1 - 1 +12.4 -3.4 +16.1
  Nov 18, 2019 12   @ Kentucky L 74-82 3%     1 - 2 +9.8 +7.0 +3.0
  Nov 21, 2019 278   Lamar L 68-74 65%     1 - 3 -15.5 -10.7 -4.5
  Nov 23, 2019 152   @ North Dakota St. W 68-62 19%     2 - 3 +9.8 -3.5 +13.4
  Nov 26, 2019 271   @ Mount St. Mary's L 61-64 41%     2 - 4 -6.1 -10.9 +4.7
  Dec 01, 2019 104   @ Colorado St. L 61-92 12%     2 - 5 -23.5 -10.0 -12.7
  Dec 04, 2019 279   Weber St. L 67-72 65%     2 - 6 -14.5 -15.3 +1.1
  Dec 07, 2019 144   @ Southern Utah L 72-73 18%     2 - 7 +3.3 -2.7 +6.1
  Dec 14, 2019 208   Northern Arizona L 73-79 51%     2 - 8 -11.8 -10.6 -0.8
  Dec 18, 2019 282   @ Wyoming W 69-67 43%     3 - 8 -1.7 +5.4 -6.9
  Dec 21, 2019 296   @ Long Beach St. L 65-68 47%     3 - 9 -7.7 -11.9 +4.3
  Jan 02, 2020 353   @ Chicago St. W 94-73 89%     4 - 9 1 - 0 +2.3 +7.0 -5.5
  Jan 04, 2020 226   @ UMKC L 63-68 33%     4 - 10 1 - 1 -5.9 -12.2 +6.5
  Jan 11, 2020 194   @ Seattle L 50-83 27%     4 - 11 1 - 2 -32.2 -21.4 -11.4
  Jan 16, 2020 96   New Mexico St. L 56-70 23%     4 - 12 1 - 3 -11.7 -12.6 +0.1
  Jan 18, 2020 253   UT Rio Grande Valley W 72-70 60%     5 - 12 2 - 3 -6.1 -2.8 -3.3
  Jan 23, 2020 233   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 57-58 OT 34%     5 - 13 2 - 4 -2.2 -20.8 +18.7
  Jan 25, 2020 227   @ Grand Canyon W 73-69 33%     6 - 13 3 - 4 +3.1 -0.8 +3.9
  Jan 29, 2020 188   California Baptist L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 08, 2020 194   Seattle L 70-71 48%    
  Feb 13, 2020 253   @ UT Rio Grande Valley L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 15, 2020 96   @ New Mexico St. L 59-73 10%    
  Feb 20, 2020 233   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-66 56%    
  Feb 22, 2020 227   Grand Canyon W 71-70 56%    
  Feb 26, 2020 188   @ California Baptist L 69-76 25%    
  Mar 05, 2020 226   UMKC W 68-67 55%    
  Mar 07, 2020 353   Chicago St. W 83-64 97%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.8 3.7 1.2 0.0 6.8 2nd
3rd 1.3 7.6 1.9 0.0 10.8 3rd
4th 0.3 9.1 4.3 0.2 13.9 4th
5th 0.0 5.2 10.2 0.7 16.2 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 12.9 2.7 0.0 18.0 6th
7th 0.1 2.1 10.9 6.8 0.1 20.0 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 6.3 5.3 0.4 14.3 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.1 2.2 8.5 18.6 25.6 23.4 14.5 5.7 1.3 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 38.7% 0.0    0.0
11-5 2.2% 0.0    0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.1% 0.1
11-5 1.3% 14.5% 14.5% 15.7 0.1 0.1 1.1
10-6 5.7% 7.7% 7.7% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.3
9-7 14.5% 5.8% 5.8% 16.0 0.8 13.7
8-8 23.4% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 1.1 22.4
7-9 25.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.7 24.9
6-10 18.6% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.3 18.2
5-11 8.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 8.4
4-12 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.1 2.2
3-13 0.1% 0.1
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 3.6 96.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%