Wagner
Northeast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.9#335
Expected Predictive Rating-6.0#252
Pace75.9#53
Improvement-0.9#292

Offense
Total Offense-6.8#331
First Shot-6.8#330
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#177
Layup/Dunks-4.7#307
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#266
Freethrows+0.6#135
Improvement+0.3#114

Defense
Total Defense-5.1#312
First Shot-7.5#340
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#52
Layups/Dunks-4.3#297
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#87
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#275
Freethrows-2.0#274
Improvement-1.2#321
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.2% 1.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 5.9% 10.9% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 21.2% 28.5% 17.3%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.8% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 20.1% 14.3% 23.2%
First Four1.4% 1.8% 1.2%
First Round0.9% 1.2% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Away) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 48 - 128 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 15   @ Seton Hall L 71-105 1%     0 - 1 -16.3 -2.7 -9.3
  Nov 09, 2019 27   @ Penn St. L 64-91 1%     0 - 2 -11.5 -8.2 +0.0
  Nov 16, 2019 184   @ NJIT L 69-88 11%     0 - 3 -17.3 -0.4 -17.6
  Nov 20, 2019 328   @ St. Peter's L 62-66 35%    
  Nov 23, 2019 175   Stony Brook L 66-74 23%    
  Nov 30, 2019 90   @ St. John's L 68-88 3%    
  Dec 14, 2019 298   @ Hartford L 67-74 26%    
  Dec 18, 2019 203   @ La Salle L 65-78 13%    
  Dec 21, 2019 288   Army L 75-77 43%    
  Dec 28, 2019 286   Fairfield L 66-68 42%    
  Jan 02, 2020 287   @ Mount St. Mary's L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 04, 2020 294   Sacred Heart L 79-80 46%    
  Jan 09, 2020 217   @ St. Francis (PA) L 70-82 14%    
  Jan 11, 2020 280   @ Robert Morris L 64-72 23%    
  Jan 18, 2020 303   St. Francis Brooklyn L 74-75 48%    
  Jan 20, 2020 246   LIU Brooklyn L 75-79 35%    
  Jan 23, 2020 256   @ Bryant L 72-82 19%    
  Jan 25, 2020 350   @ Central Connecticut St. W 76-73 59%    
  Jan 30, 2020 248   Fairleigh Dickinson L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 06, 2020 280   Robert Morris L 67-69 41%    
  Feb 08, 2020 217   St. Francis (PA) L 73-79 30%    
  Feb 13, 2020 248   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 67-77 19%    
  Feb 15, 2020 278   @ Merrimack L 62-71 22%    
  Feb 18, 2020 287   Mount St. Mary's L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 21, 2020 350   Central Connecticut St. W 79-70 77%    
  Feb 23, 2020 303   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 71-78 29%    
  Feb 27, 2020 246   @ LIU Brooklyn L 72-82 19%    
  Feb 29, 2020 256   Bryant L 75-79 38%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 12





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.0 4.4 1.4 0.1 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 4.3 5.8 2.2 0.1 13.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.5 6.2 2.6 0.2 17.3 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 5.1 7.5 6.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 23.2 10th
11th 0.7 2.2 4.0 3.6 1.9 0.5 0.1 12.9 11th
Total 0.7 2.4 5.6 9.1 11.9 13.1 13.5 12.3 10.2 8.1 5.5 3.7 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 95.3% 0.2    0.1 0.0
14-4 68.1% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 35.7% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.2% 0.2    0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 22.2% 22.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.2% 18.9% 18.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-4 0.6% 10.7% 10.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 0.5
13-5 1.1% 13.2% 13.2% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.0
12-6 2.0% 9.2% 9.2% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.8
11-7 3.7% 8.5% 8.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 3.4
10-8 5.5% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.2 5.3
9-9 8.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.3 7.8
8-10 10.2% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 9.9
7-11 12.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 12.2
6-12 13.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-13 13.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.1
4-14 11.9% 11.9
3-15 9.1% 9.1
2-16 5.6% 5.6
1-17 2.4% 2.4
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%