Wagner
Northeast
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.0#324
Expected Predictive Rating-9.0#303
Pace71.0#135
Improvement-0.1#186

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#291
First Shot-5.3#313
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#98
Layup/Dunks-4.1#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#193
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#172
Freethrows-0.8#237
Improvement-1.9#270

Defense
Total Defense-5.8#323
First Shot-6.1#338
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#146
Layups/Dunks-0.1#178
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#53
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#299
Freethrows-4.7#346
Improvement+1.8#75
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 2.1% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 1.6% 2.5% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 25.3% 34.7% 12.8%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.4% 1.9% 7.6%
First Four1.5% 2.0% 0.9%
First Round0.7% 1.0% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Francis Brooklyn (Home) - 57.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 30 - 50 - 8
Quad 49 - 119 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 8   @ Seton Hall L 71-105 1%     0 - 1 -15.4 -0.5 -10.5
  Nov 09, 2019 29   @ Penn St. L 64-91 2%     0 - 2 -11.9 -9.5 +0.9
  Nov 16, 2019 260   @ NJIT L 69-88 24%     0 - 3 -21.7 -2.8 -19.6
  Nov 20, 2019 271   @ St. Peter's W 81-77 OT 26%     1 - 3 +0.8 -2.5 +2.7
  Nov 23, 2019 136   Stony Brook L 84-87 OT 20%     1 - 4 -4.0 +8.6 -12.5
  Nov 30, 2019 77   @ St. John's L 63-86 4%     1 - 5 -13.1 -9.2 -1.7
  Dec 14, 2019 282   @ Hartford L 63-71 28%     1 - 6 -12.0 -16.3 +5.1
  Dec 18, 2019 172   @ La Salle L 60-74 12%     1 - 7 -11.4 -10.7 -0.4
  Dec 21, 2019 297   Army W 82-62 53%     2 - 7 +9.3 +7.0 +3.0
  Dec 28, 2019 252   Fairfield L 54-66 43%     2 - 8 -20.1 -15.4 -5.7
  Jan 02, 2020 285   @ Mount St. Mary's W 66-47 29%     3 - 8 1 - 0 +14.6 +1.9 +15.4
  Jan 04, 2020 204   Sacred Heart L 74-81 33%     3 - 9 1 - 1 -12.6 +1.7 -14.8
  Jan 09, 2020 185   @ St. Francis (PA) L 62-80 14%     3 - 10 1 - 2 -16.2 -14.4 -1.3
  Jan 11, 2020 212   @ Robert Morris L 62-94 18%     3 - 11 1 - 3 -32.2 -10.2 -22.6
  Jan 18, 2020 305   St. Francis Brooklyn W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 20, 2020 247   LIU Brooklyn L 76-78 42%    
  Jan 23, 2020 231   @ Bryant L 69-78 20%    
  Jan 25, 2020 350   @ Central Connecticut St. W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 30, 2020 311   Fairleigh Dickinson W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 06, 2020 212   Robert Morris L 68-72 36%    
  Feb 08, 2020 185   St. Francis (PA) L 71-77 29%    
  Feb 13, 2020 311   @ Fairleigh Dickinson L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 15, 2020 281   @ Merrimack L 62-68 28%    
  Feb 18, 2020 285   Mount St. Mary's W 66-65 51%    
  Feb 21, 2020 350   Central Connecticut St. W 77-66 84%    
  Feb 23, 2020 305   @ St. Francis Brooklyn L 71-75 35%    
  Feb 27, 2020 247   @ LIU Brooklyn L 73-81 23%    
  Feb 29, 2020 231   Bryant L 72-75 40%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Northeast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.6 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.4 1.7 0.1 4.7 4th
5th 0.4 2.9 3.4 0.5 0.0 7.1 5th
6th 0.3 3.5 5.1 1.2 0.0 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.5 7.5 3.0 0.1 14.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.4 8.9 4.5 0.3 0.0 18.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 4.5 8.1 4.6 0.5 18.8 9th
10th 0.3 2.3 5.8 7.4 3.9 0.5 0.0 20.2 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.9 11th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.0 7.2 12.6 16.7 17.8 16.5 11.7 7.6 3.8 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Northeast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 78.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 36.1% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 6.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.5% 7.2% 7.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5
12-6 1.6% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.4
11-7 3.8% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.2 3.6
10-8 7.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.3 7.2
9-9 11.7% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.4 11.3
8-10 16.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 16.2
7-11 17.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.2 17.6
6-12 16.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 16.7
5-13 12.6% 12.6
4-14 7.2% 7.2
3-15 3.0% 3.0
2-16 0.9% 0.9
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6 98.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%