Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.7#264
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#256
Pace61.3#339
Improvement-1.0#230

Offense
Total Offense-5.7#316
First Shot-7.2#339
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#69
Layup/Dunks+1.1#127
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#215
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#344
Freethrows-0.9#243
Improvement-0.4#198

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#160
First Shot-1.3#208
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#67
Layups/Dunks-1.4#242
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#168
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#241
Freethrows+0.9#124
Improvement-0.6#225
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 6.7% 4.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 15.9% 23.0% 7.8%
.500 or above in Conference 40.7% 52.8% 26.8%
Conference Champion 4.1% 6.3% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 12.6% 7.1% 19.0%
First Four3.7% 4.1% 3.3%
First Round3.7% 4.9% 2.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Canisius (Home) - 53.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 53 - 8
Quad 411 - 1114 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2019 223   Bucknell L 64-68 53%     0 - 1 -10.6 -9.9 -0.7
  Nov 09, 2019 206   Massachusetts L 60-62 51%     0 - 2 -7.8 -9.0 +0.9
  Nov 12, 2019 340   @ Holy Cross W 68-63 OT 65%     1 - 2 -4.6 -9.5 +5.1
  Nov 17, 2019 275   @ Loyola Maryland L 75-84 OT 41%     1 - 3 -12.3 -8.4 -3.1
  Nov 19, 2019 7   @ Maryland L 55-74 2%     1 - 4 +0.2 +0.0 -1.8
  Nov 28, 2019 58   USC L 47-54 10%     1 - 5 +1.4 -17.0 +18.0
  Nov 29, 2019 93   Davidson L 56-67 15%     1 - 6 -5.5 -8.6 +1.7
  Dec 01, 2019 128   Texas A&M W 67-62 22%     2 - 6 +7.6 +7.5 +0.7
  Dec 08, 2019 161   William & Mary L 58-62 38%     2 - 7 -6.7 -11.7 +4.6
  Dec 21, 2019 241   @ Oakland W 61-59 OT 34%     3 - 7 +0.5 -16.4 +16.7
  Dec 28, 2019 327   @ Wagner W 66-54 57%     4 - 7 +4.6 -6.1 +11.6
  Jan 03, 2020 293   @ Niagara L 66-75 46%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -13.8 -5.9 -8.8
  Jan 05, 2020 227   @ Canisius W 46-42 32%     5 - 8 1 - 1 +3.2 -23.7 +27.1
  Jan 08, 2020 336   Marist L 58-70 79%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -26.3 -14.5 -12.7
  Jan 10, 2020 247   Manhattan W 68-60 57%     6 - 9 2 - 2 +0.4 +6.3 -4.6
  Jan 15, 2020 236   St. Peter's W 61-51 56%     7 - 9 3 - 2 +2.7 -8.8 +12.0
  Jan 17, 2020 255   @ Iona L 57-64 37%     7 - 10 3 - 3 -9.4 -11.9 +1.8
  Jan 24, 2020 225   @ Quinnipiac L 67-81 32%     7 - 11 3 - 4 -14.8 -3.0 -12.7
  Jan 26, 2020 227   Canisius W 64-63 54%    
  Jan 31, 2020 191   @ Rider L 64-70 27%    
  Feb 04, 2020 201   Monmouth L 63-64 50%    
  Feb 07, 2020 229   @ Siena L 61-66 32%    
  Feb 09, 2020 255   Iona W 66-63 60%    
  Feb 14, 2020 336   @ Marist W 59-56 60%    
  Feb 16, 2020 236   @ St. Peter's L 56-60 34%    
  Feb 21, 2020 293   Niagara W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 23, 2020 229   Siena W 64-63 54%    
  Feb 28, 2020 225   Quinnipiac W 64-63 54%    
  Mar 01, 2020 191   Rider L 67-68 47%    
  Mar 04, 2020 201   @ Monmouth L 60-66 29%    
  Mar 06, 2020 247   @ Manhattan L 55-59 35%    
Projected Record 13 - 18 9 - 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.9 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 4.1 1st
2nd 0.8 3.2 1.2 0.2 5.4 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 2.7 0.2 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 2.6 5.0 0.6 8.2 4th
5th 0.7 6.5 1.9 0.0 9.2 5th
6th 0.1 4.3 5.3 0.3 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.8 8.0 1.9 11.7 7th
8th 0.9 6.7 4.8 0.1 12.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.8 6.4 0.8 12.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 3.9 6.2 1.9 0.0 13.3 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 1.9 2.1 0.9 0.0 6.0 11th
Total 0.1 1.0 3.1 6.7 12.8 16.9 18.7 16.6 11.9 7.5 3.3 1.2 0.2 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.1
14-6 86.2% 1.0    0.7 0.3 0.0
13-7 56.0% 1.8    0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-8 12.1% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.5 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.2% 20.8% 20.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 1.2% 17.2% 17.2% 15.4 0.1 0.1 1.0
13-7 3.3% 14.2% 14.2% 15.7 0.2 0.3 2.8
12-8 7.5% 15.0% 15.0% 15.8 0.2 1.0 6.3
11-9 11.9% 9.8% 9.8% 16.0 0.1 1.1 10.8
10-10 16.6% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1 15.5
9-11 18.7% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.6 18.1
8-12 16.9% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 16.5
7-13 12.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.2 12.6
6-14 6.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.7
5-15 3.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.0
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.5 4.9 94.6 0.0%