Wright St.
Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#114
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#113
Pace74.6#62
Improvement+0.8#149

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#109
First Shot+0.6#157
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#58
Layup/Dunks+0.3#166
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#123
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#207
Freethrows+0.4#142
Improvement+0.6#137

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#127
First Shot+1.6#116
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#185
Layups/Dunks-0.5#190
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#316
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#52
Freethrows+1.6#83
Improvement+0.2#172
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 37.9% 39.0% 31.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 71.5% 74.9% 51.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round37.9% 39.0% 31.4%
Second Round5.2% 5.5% 3.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.2% 1.0%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Youngstown St. (Home) - 85.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 1
Quad 36 - 57 - 5
Quad 417 - 224 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 191   @ Miami (OH) W 88-81 60%     1 - 0 +8.2 +3.7 +3.7
  Nov 12, 2019 339   @ Tennessee Tech W 85-80 OT 89%     2 - 0 -4.7 +1.3 -6.5
  Nov 16, 2019 104   Kent St. L 71-72 58%     2 - 1 +0.7 -3.9 +4.7
  Nov 25, 2019 274   Weber St. W 72-57 83%     3 - 1 +8.7 -0.4 +9.9
  Nov 26, 2019 182   La Salle L 70-72 67%     3 - 2 -2.7 -5.8 +3.2
  Nov 27, 2019 191   Miami (OH) W 71-66 70%     4 - 2 +3.3 -6.7 +9.9
  Dec 03, 2019 111   Western Kentucky W 76-74 61%     5 - 2 +3.1 -5.8 +8.6
  Dec 07, 2019 115   Indiana St. L 77-84 OT 61%     5 - 3 -6.1 -5.5 +0.2
  Dec 12, 2019 335   Southern W 85-62 95%     6 - 3 +8.6 +1.9 +5.9
  Dec 17, 2019 351   Mississippi Valley W 92-50 98%     7 - 3 +19.2 -5.2 +18.6
  Dec 21, 2019 125   @ Toledo W 79-72 44%     8 - 3 +12.3 +4.2 +7.7
  Dec 28, 2019 210   Green Bay W 90-84 82%     9 - 3 1 - 0 +0.0 +2.0 -2.5
  Dec 30, 2019 250   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 82-70 86%     10 - 3 2 - 0 +4.1 +4.3 -0.4
  Jan 03, 2020 204   @ Oakland W 96-69 64%     11 - 3 3 - 0 +27.1 +21.2 +5.0
  Jan 05, 2020 270   @ Detroit Mercy W 70-69 75%     12 - 3 4 - 0 -2.2 -3.8 +1.6
  Jan 10, 2020 309   @ IUPUI W 84-70 83%     13 - 3 5 - 0 +7.7 -1.3 +7.9
  Jan 12, 2020 238   @ Illinois-Chicago L 72-76 69%     13 - 4 5 - 1 -5.4 -5.3 +0.2
  Jan 16, 2020 308   Cleveland St. W 75-62 92%     14 - 4 6 - 1 +0.9 -1.6 +2.7
  Jan 18, 2020 237   Youngstown St. W 79-68 85%    
  Jan 24, 2020 119   Northern Kentucky W 72-69 62%    
  Jan 31, 2020 250   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 76-70 70%    
  Feb 02, 2020 210   @ Green Bay W 86-82 64%    
  Feb 06, 2020 270   Detroit Mercy W 83-70 89%    
  Feb 08, 2020 204   Oakland W 73-64 81%    
  Feb 14, 2020 238   Illinois-Chicago W 78-67 84%    
  Feb 16, 2020 309   IUPUI W 85-69 93%    
  Feb 20, 2020 237   @ Youngstown St. W 76-71 68%    
  Feb 22, 2020 308   @ Cleveland St. W 77-67 82%    
  Feb 28, 2020 119   @ Northern Kentucky L 69-72 40%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 14 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.2 6.9 18.0 24.1 16.3 4.9 71.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.2 9.7 5.6 0.4 23.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 8.9 16.9 23.6 24.6 16.3 4.9 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 4.9    4.9
16-2 100.0% 16.3    16.3
15-3 98.2% 24.1    20.7 3.4
14-4 76.4% 18.0    11.5 6.4 0.1
13-5 41.1% 6.9    2.6 3.7 0.6 0.0
12-6 13.6% 1.2    0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 71.5% 71.5 56.2 14.1 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 4.9% 55.0% 55.0% 12.4 0.1 1.5 0.9 0.1 2.2
16-2 16.3% 45.7% 45.7% 13.1 0.0 1.3 4.1 1.9 0.1 8.8
15-3 24.6% 42.1% 42.1% 13.5 0.6 4.5 4.7 0.7 0.0 14.2
14-4 23.6% 36.6% 36.6% 14.0 0.1 1.9 4.9 1.7 0.0 15.0
13-5 16.9% 32.1% 32.1% 14.4 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.3 0.2 11.5
12-6 8.9% 26.3% 26.3% 14.7 0.0 0.7 1.4 0.2 6.6
11-7 3.5% 22.1% 22.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 2.7
10-8 1.1% 19.8% 19.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
9-9 0.2% 21.2% 21.2% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
8-10 0.0% 9.5% 9.5% 16.0 0.0 0.0
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 37.9% 37.9% 0.0% 13.7 0.2 3.5 12.0 15.0 6.6 0.8 62.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.7% 100.0% 12.4 5.2 57.1 34.6 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%