Wright St.
Horizon
2018-19 - 2019-20 - 2020-21
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.4#109
Expected Predictive Rating+2.6#143
Pace73.8#83
Improvement+0.0#174

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#97
First Shot-3.3#269
After Offensive Rebound+6.0#8
Layup/Dunks-2.3#249
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#133
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#150
Freethrows-2.2#290
Improvement+0.0#165

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#141
First Shot-0.4#178
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#109
Layups/Dunks-1.7#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#211
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#103
Freethrows-0.3#194
Improvement+0.0#187
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.8% 33.2% 25.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.6 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 96.2% 97.6% 90.1%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 95.5% 90.2%
Conference Champion 44.2% 46.7% 33.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.3%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 1.1%
First Round31.5% 33.0% 25.2%
Second Round5.1% 5.6% 2.9%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.5% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Neutral) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 35 - 46 - 6
Quad 415 - 221 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2019 162   @ Miami (OH) W 88-81 52%     1 - 0 +9.9 +5.3 +3.8
  Nov 12, 2019 322   @ Tennessee Tech W 85-80 OT 85%     2 - 0 -2.6 +3.7 -6.7
  Nov 16, 2019 117   Kent St. L 71-72 64%     2 - 1 -1.3 -4.1 +2.8
  Nov 25, 2019 276   Weber St. W 81-72 81%    
  Dec 03, 2019 77   Western Kentucky L 75-76 49%    
  Dec 07, 2019 165   Indiana St. W 80-73 73%    
  Dec 12, 2019 343   Southern W 80-60 96%    
  Dec 17, 2019 352   Mississippi Valley W 101-74 99%    
  Dec 21, 2019 86   @ Toledo L 72-78 32%    
  Dec 28, 2019 182   Green Bay W 86-78 75%    
  Dec 30, 2019 247   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 78-67 83%    
  Jan 03, 2020 179   @ Oakland W 71-70 56%    
  Jan 05, 2020 284   @ Detroit Mercy W 82-75 73%    
  Jan 10, 2020 251   @ IUPUI W 78-73 67%    
  Jan 12, 2020 204   @ Illinois-Chicago W 73-70 59%    
  Jan 16, 2020 342   Cleveland St. W 86-66 96%    
  Jan 18, 2020 248   Youngstown St. W 81-70 83%    
  Jan 24, 2020 142   Northern Kentucky W 76-71 65%    
  Jan 31, 2020 247   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 02, 2020 182   @ Green Bay W 83-81 55%    
  Feb 06, 2020 284   Detroit Mercy W 85-72 87%    
  Feb 08, 2020 179   Oakland W 74-67 75%    
  Feb 14, 2020 204   Illinois-Chicago W 76-67 78%    
  Feb 16, 2020 251   IUPUI W 81-70 83%    
  Feb 20, 2020 248   @ Youngstown St. W 78-73 67%    
  Feb 22, 2020 342   @ Cleveland St. W 83-69 89%    
  Feb 28, 2020 142   @ Northern Kentucky L 73-74 46%    
Projected Record 19 - 8 13 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Horizon Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 4.2 9.0 11.7 10.0 6.1 2.3 44.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.5 5.1 7.3 5.3 2.1 0.3 21.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.4 4.3 4.8 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.4 1.1 0.1 8.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.2 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 4.9 7.0 9.8 11.9 13.8 14.6 13.8 10.3 6.1 2.3 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 2.3    2.3
17-1 100.0% 6.1    6.0 0.2
16-2 96.8% 10.0    9.3 0.7 0.0
15-3 84.9% 11.7    8.9 2.7 0.1
14-4 61.4% 9.0    5.0 3.5 0.6 0.0
13-5 30.7% 4.2    1.5 1.8 0.9 0.1
12-6 6.9% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 44.2% 44.2 32.9 9.1 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 2.3% 71.5% 69.8% 1.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 5.8%
17-1 6.1% 58.2% 57.4% 0.8% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 2.6 1.8%
16-2 10.3% 49.0% 49.0% 0.0% 13.0 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.3 0.1 5.3 0.0%
15-3 13.8% 41.9% 41.9% 13.5 0.0 0.6 2.3 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.0
14-4 14.6% 37.2% 37.2% 13.9 0.2 1.5 2.4 1.2 0.1 9.2
13-5 13.8% 30.9% 30.9% 14.4 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.3 9.5
12-6 11.9% 21.2% 21.2% 14.6 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.3 9.4
11-7 9.8% 17.2% 17.2% 15.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.4 8.1
10-8 7.0% 16.0% 16.0% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 5.9
9-9 4.9% 9.7% 9.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 4.4
8-10 2.6% 5.9% 5.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.4
7-11 1.5% 4.9% 4.9% 15.7 0.0 0.1 1.4
6-12 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 31.8% 31.7% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 4.1 8.8 9.5 6.1 2.2 68.2 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 8.3 0.7 4.6 5.6 4.0 22.4 3.6 6.6 13.5 2.3 28.1 8.3 0.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 9.8% 10.8 1.6 1.6 3.3 3.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 38.5% 10.0 5.1 30.8 2.6