Manhattan
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.3#296
Expected Predictive Rating-7.8#277
Pace63.8#309
Improvement+4.1#19

Offense
Total Offense-9.4#338
First Shot-7.8#335
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#265
Layup/Dunks-5.7#332
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#135
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#282
Freethrows+0.7#127
Improvement-0.8#232

Defense
Total Defense+1.1#144
First Shot+2.7#90
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#281
Layups/Dunks-1.1#214
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.0#42
Freethrows-1.2#256
Improvement+4.9#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.2% 2.6% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 17.5% 40.5% 13.2%
.500 or above in Conference 1.4% 5.8% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 18.8% 4.6% 21.4%
First Four0.9% 1.9% 0.8%
First Round0.6% 1.4% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Away) - 15.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 31 - 52 - 7
Quad 47 - 59 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 11, 2020 280   Rider L 64-82 54%     0 - 1 0 - 1 -27.3 -16.8 -10.1
  Dec 12, 2020 280   Rider W 87-77 54%     1 - 1 1 - 1 +0.7 +7.8 -7.0
  Dec 19, 2020 288   Marist L 39-61 55%     1 - 2 1 - 2 -31.6 -34.6 +2.1
  Dec 20, 2020 288   Marist L 67-72 OT 55%     1 - 3 1 - 3 -14.6 -9.2 -5.3
  Dec 30, 2020 344   @ Delaware St. W 65-59 78%     2 - 3 -10.3 -19.1 +8.6
  Jan 08, 2021 271   @ Quinnipiac L 79-84 2OT 37%     2 - 4 1 - 4 -9.9 -6.8 -2.1
  Jan 09, 2021 271   @ Quinnipiac W 45-42 37%     3 - 4 2 - 4 -1.9 -21.0 +19.4
  Jan 15, 2021 249   Niagara W 58-49 46%     4 - 4 3 - 4 +1.7 -16.5 +18.6
  Jan 16, 2021 249   Niagara W 58-55 46%     5 - 4 4 - 4 -4.3 -7.9 +4.1
  Jan 29, 2021 167   @ St. Peter's L 53-63 16%    
  Jan 30, 2021 167   @ St. Peter's L 53-63 16%    
  Feb 05, 2021 312   Fairfield W 59-55 67%    
  Feb 06, 2021 312   Fairfield W 59-55 68%    
  Feb 12, 2021 150   @ Siena L 58-69 13%    
  Feb 13, 2021 150   @ Siena L 58-69 13%    
  Feb 17, 2021 187   @ Iona L 59-67 20%    
  Feb 19, 2021 242   @ Canisius L 61-66 29%    
  Feb 20, 2021 242   @ Canisius L 61-66 29%    
  Feb 24, 2021 187   @ Iona L 59-67 20%    
Projected Record 8 - 11 6 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 3rd
4th 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 1.8 4th
5th 0.4 2.6 1.7 0.4 5.0 5th
6th 0.3 4.2 5.8 1.1 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.0 4.8 10.6 3.2 0.1 18.7 7th
8th 1.8 14.4 7.1 0.5 23.8 8th
9th 0.2 7.3 10.6 1.2 0.0 19.3 9th
10th 1.9 9.2 2.2 0.1 13.3 10th
11th 4.0 2.3 0.1 6.4 11th
Total 6.0 20.6 32.3 23.6 12.4 3.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 15.4% 15.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
10-10 1.2% 9.6% 9.6% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1
9-11 3.7% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 0.3 3.5
8-12 12.4% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.3 12.1
7-13 23.6% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 23.3
6-14 32.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 32.2
5-15 20.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 20.6
4-16 6.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.9%