Fairfield
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-10.0#314
Expected Predictive Rating-14.5#327
Pace63.4#316
Improvement+2.6#39

Offense
Total Offense-8.4#332
First Shot-7.2#327
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#244
Layup/Dunks-2.3#258
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#233
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#281
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+4.0#6

Defense
Total Defense-1.6#212
First Shot-2.6#249
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#126
Layups/Dunks-5.6#317
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#102
Freethrows+0.3#168
Improvement-1.4#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 2.4% 6.6% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 39.8% 23.5% 46.2%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Away) - 28.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 31 - 81 - 12
Quad 45 - 86 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 58   @ Providence L 56-97 4%     0 - 1 -30.1 -14.7 -14.2
  Dec 02, 2020 231   Hartford L 61-66 35%     0 - 2 -11.2 -15.3 +4.3
  Dec 04, 2020 218   @ Stony Brook L 69-72 OT 23%     0 - 3 -5.3 -12.8 +8.0
  Dec 07, 2020 231   @ Hartford L 54-67 25%     0 - 4 -16.0 -14.9 -2.1
  Dec 11, 2020 192   Iona L 42-70 28%     0 - 5 0 - 1 -31.9 -30.9 -2.2
  Dec 12, 2020 192   Iona W 67-52 28%     1 - 5 1 - 1 +11.1 -5.1 +16.8
  Dec 18, 2020 221   @ Niagara L 51-68 24%     1 - 6 1 - 2 -19.5 -20.7 -0.2
  Dec 19, 2020 221   @ Niagara L 61-81 24%     1 - 7 1 - 3 -22.5 -3.6 -22.7
  Dec 22, 2020 301   Fairleigh Dickinson L 65-69 52%     1 - 8 -14.4 -14.4 -0.2
  Jan 01, 2021 294   Rider L 62-70 50%     1 - 9 1 - 4 -18.0 -15.2 -3.2
  Jan 02, 2021 294   Rider W 72-56 50%     2 - 9 2 - 4 +6.0 +0.4 +7.5
  Jan 09, 2021 130   Siena L 58-74 16%     2 - 10 2 - 5 -15.4 -10.2 -7.2
  Jan 10, 2021 130   Siena L 68-75 16%     2 - 11 2 - 6 -6.4 +2.1 -9.5
  Jan 15, 2021 271   @ Marist L 56-61 28%    
  Jan 16, 2021 271   @ Marist L 56-61 28%    
  Jan 22, 2021 239   Canisius L 63-67 42%    
  Jan 23, 2021 239   Canisius L 63-67 42%    
  Feb 05, 2021 315   @ Manhattan L 57-59 39%    
  Feb 06, 2021 315   @ Manhattan L 57-59 40%    
  Feb 19, 2021 157   @ Monmouth L 64-76 11%    
  Feb 20, 2021 157   @ Monmouth L 64-76 11%    
  Feb 26, 2021 176   @ St. Peter's L 54-65 14%    
  Feb 27, 2021 176   @ St. Peter's L 54-65 14%    
  Mar 05, 2021 284   Quinnipiac L 60-61 52%    
  Mar 06, 2021 284   Quinnipiac L 60-61 53%    
Projected Record 6 - 19 6 - 14





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 1.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.3 2.0 0.6 0.1 4.2 6th
7th 0.3 2.3 4.1 1.5 0.1 8.2 7th
8th 0.4 3.6 7.2 3.4 0.3 0.0 14.9 8th
9th 0.6 5.2 9.6 5.2 0.7 0.0 21.4 9th
10th 0.6 5.6 10.0 6.2 1.0 0.0 23.4 10th
11th 1.9 7.5 10.1 4.7 0.9 0.0 25.2 11th
Total 1.9 8.1 16.3 20.3 20.6 15.8 9.7 4.8 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.6% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
10-10 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 1.7
9-11 4.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 4.8
8-12 9.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.6
7-13 15.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.8
6-14 20.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.5
5-15 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 20.3
4-16 16.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.3
3-17 8.1% 8.1
2-18 1.9% 1.9
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 16.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.6%