Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.0#145
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#95
Pace66.1#265
Improvement-1.1#230

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#143
First Shot+4.8#54
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#334
Layup/Dunks+1.8#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#209
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#76
Freethrows+0.8#122
Improvement-1.5#272

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#173
First Shot+1.3#131
After Offensive Rebounds-1.3#268
Layups/Dunks-5.2#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#39
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#103
Freethrows+2.3#44
Improvement+0.4#149
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.0% 31.7% 24.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.3
.500 or above 99.6% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.4% 99.6% 99.1%
Conference Champion 13.4% 14.0% 12.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.5%
First Round28.9% 31.6% 24.2%
Second Round2.4% 2.9% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 62.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 14 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 00 - 0
Quad 34 - 35 - 3
Quad 413 - 217 - 5


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Jan 03, 2021 157   Monmouth W 78-77 59%     1 - 0 1 - 0 -0.3 -1.6 +1.2
  Jan 04, 2021 157   Monmouth W 76-62 59%     2 - 0 2 - 0 +12.7 +0.2 +12.1
  Jan 09, 2021 314   @ Fairfield W 74-58 81%     3 - 0 3 - 0 +7.5 +8.1 +1.4
  Jan 10, 2021 314   @ Fairfield W 75-68 81%     4 - 0 4 - 0 -1.5 +10.4 -10.9
  Jan 15, 2021 288   @ Rider W 78-69 76%     5 - 0 5 - 0 +2.6 +1.9 +1.0
  Jan 16, 2021 288   @ Rider W 74-72 76%     6 - 0 6 - 0 -4.4 -6.9 +2.4
  Jan 22, 2021 170   St. Peter's L 62-68 63%     6 - 1 6 - 1 -8.4 -2.7 -6.1
  Jan 23, 2021 170   St. Peter's W 47-40 63%     7 - 1 7 - 1 +4.6 -16.3 +21.7
  Feb 12, 2021 248   @ Niagara W 70-65 63%    
  Feb 12, 2021 292   Manhattan W 67-56 87%    
  Feb 13, 2021 248   @ Niagara W 70-65 63%    
  Feb 13, 2021 292   Manhattan W 67-56 87%    
  Feb 19, 2021 190   @ Iona W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 19, 2021 269   Quinnipiac W 70-61 83%    
  Feb 20, 2021 190   @ Iona W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 20, 2021 269   Quinnipiac W 70-61 83%    
  Feb 26, 2021 237   Canisius W 75-67 79%    
  Feb 27, 2021 237   Canisius W 75-67 79%    
  Mar 05, 2021 275   @ Marist W 67-61 68%    
  Mar 06, 2021 275   @ Marist W 67-61 68%    
Projected Record 16 - 4 13 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 5.1 6.1 13.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 2.3 10.9 22.1 25.0 14.3 74.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.9 3.3 3.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 9.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.7 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 6.3 14.5 25.6 30.3 20.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 29.9% 6.1    3.2 2.9
14-6 16.7% 5.1    2.2 2.7 0.1
13-7 7.3% 1.9    0.6 1.1 0.2
12-8 2.3% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 13.4% 13.4 6.1 6.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 20.5% 38.9% 38.8% 0.2% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 3.2 2.5 0.4 0.0 12.5 0.3%
14-6 30.3% 32.6% 32.6% 13.8 0.0 0.4 3.2 4.6 1.6 0.1 20.4
13-7 25.6% 26.8% 26.8% 14.2 0.0 1.0 3.3 2.2 0.2 18.7
12-8 14.5% 20.9% 20.9% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 0.4 11.5
11-9 6.3% 15.9% 15.9% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 5.3
10-10 2.2% 11.5% 11.5% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.0
9-11 0.5% 6.5% 6.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.5
8-12 0.1% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.0% 29.0% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.9 7.6 11.6 6.2 1.2 71.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.0% 100.0% 11.9 0.3 0.3 0.2 2.0 5.8 15.1 48.7 26.1 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.8% 1.9% 12.9 0.5 1.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.9% 1.1% 12.4 0.7 0.5