Marist
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#271
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#202
Pace64.2#304
Improvement-0.3#203

Offense
Total Offense-6.7#320
First Shot-2.4#243
After Offensive Rebound-4.3#335
Layup/Dunks-2.7#267
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#200
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#130
Freethrows-0.3#189
Improvement+1.4#68

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#164
First Shot-1.4#218
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#89
Layups/Dunks-0.6#194
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#170
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#158
Freethrows-1.3#251
Improvement-1.7#287
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.2% 3.7% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 45.0% 52.3% 26.3%
.500 or above in Conference 70.5% 78.2% 50.9%
Conference Champion 2.6% 3.3% 0.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.2% 2.6%
First Four1.5% 1.6% 1.3%
First Round2.4% 2.8% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 71.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 53 - 9
Quad 410 - 513 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 05, 2020 329   @ Binghamton W 68-65 OT 67%     1 - 0 -8.2 -16.8 +8.4
  Dec 06, 2020 329   Binghamton W 64-60 77%     2 - 0 -10.4 -16.8 +6.5
  Dec 11, 2020 239   @ Canisius L 72-81 37%     2 - 1 0 - 1 -12.3 -2.2 -10.2
  Dec 12, 2020 239   @ Canisius W 56-52 37%     3 - 1 1 - 1 +0.7 -18.4 +19.1
  Dec 19, 2020 315   @ Manhattan W 61-39 57%     4 - 1 2 - 1 +13.5 -9.2 +23.6
  Dec 20, 2020 315   @ Manhattan W 72-67 OT 57%     5 - 1 3 - 1 -3.5 -1.7 -1.8
  Jan 01, 2021 221   Niagara W 63-61 46%     6 - 1 4 - 1 -3.7 -10.2 +6.7
  Jan 02, 2021 221   Niagara L 72-86 46%     6 - 2 4 - 2 -19.7 -0.1 -20.7
  Jan 09, 2021 157   @ Monmouth L 64-80 20%     6 - 3 4 - 3 -13.8 -6.4 -8.0
  Jan 10, 2021 157   @ Monmouth L 62-72 20%     6 - 4 4 - 4 -7.8 -12.4 +4.9
  Jan 15, 2021 314   Fairfield W 61-56 72%    
  Jan 16, 2021 314   Fairfield W 61-56 72%    
  Jan 22, 2021 221   Niagara L 64-65 51%    
  Jan 23, 2021 221   Niagara L 64-65 51%    
  Jan 27, 2021 284   Quinnipiac W 62-60 63%    
  Jan 29, 2021 294   @ Rider W 67-66 44%    
  Jan 30, 2021 294   @ Rider W 67-66 45%    
  Feb 05, 2021 157   @ Monmouth L 66-75 17%    
  Feb 06, 2021 157   @ Monmouth L 66-75 17%    
  Feb 10, 2021 284   Quinnipiac W 62-60 63%    
  Feb 12, 2021 192   Iona L 63-66 43%    
  Feb 13, 2021 192   Iona L 63-66 44%    
  Feb 19, 2021 176   @ St. Peter's L 57-64 22%    
  Feb 20, 2021 176   @ St. Peter's L 57-64 22%    
  Mar 05, 2021 130   Siena L 62-69 29%    
  Mar 06, 2021 130   Siena L 62-69 29%    
Projected Record 13 - 13 11 - 13





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.4 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.6 5.4 6.4 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 19.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.7 7.5 6.9 2.6 0.4 0.0 20.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 2.7 6.9 5.5 1.5 0.2 16.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.9 5.9 5.3 1.4 0.1 14.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.1 3.5 0.9 0.0 9.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.9 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.9 8.8 13.0 16.0 16.0 14.2 10.6 7.1 3.9 1.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 85.8% 0.2    0.2 0.0
17-3 63.4% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.0
16-4 38.8% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
15-5 20.2% 0.8    0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.6% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 11.1% 11.1% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 15.6% 15.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
17-3 0.6% 16.8% 16.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.9% 13.4% 13.4% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.7
15-5 3.9% 8.9% 8.9% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.5
14-6 7.1% 7.8% 7.8% 15.6 0.0 0.2 0.4 6.6
13-7 10.6% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.1 0.6 9.9
12-8 14.2% 3.4% 3.4% 15.9 0.0 0.5 13.7
11-9 16.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4 15.7
10-10 16.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.3 15.7
9-11 13.0% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 12.9
8-12 8.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 8.8
7-13 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 4.9
6-14 2.0% 2.0
5-15 0.7% 0.7
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 96.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%