Xavier
Big East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#48
Expected Predictive Rating+15.5#26
Pace70.3#173
Improvement-2.5#301

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#53
First Shot+6.1#38
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#196
Layup/Dunks+6.5#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#248
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#135
Freethrows-0.1#183
Improvement-2.9#329

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#45
First Shot+3.1#74
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#48
Layups/Dunks-1.3#215
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#94
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#146
Freethrows+2.6#33
Improvement+0.4#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 0.8% 0.9% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 4.9% 5.7% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 15.0% 17.0% 5.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 69.5% 74.0% 49.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 68.0% 72.5% 48.4%
Average Seed 8.6 8.4 9.5
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 30.3% 34.8% 10.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.5% 0.6% 5.7%
First Four9.3% 8.9% 10.6%
First Round64.9% 69.5% 44.2%
Second Round31.8% 34.6% 19.6%
Sweet Sixteen10.0% 11.0% 5.5%
Elite Eight3.5% 3.9% 1.6%
Final Four1.2% 1.4% 0.7%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Georgetown (Home) - 81.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 4
Quad 25 - 37 - 6
Quad 37 - 113 - 7
Quad 43 - 016 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 251   Oakland W 101-49 95%     1 - 0 +44.5 +14.5 +25.6
  Nov 26, 2020 99   Bradley W 51-50 77%     2 - 0 +4.3 -11.0 +15.5
  Nov 27, 2020 77   Toledo W 76-73 70%     3 - 0 +8.4 -0.3 +8.6
  Nov 30, 2020 163   Eastern Kentucky W 99-96 OT 88%     4 - 0 +1.3 +4.1 -3.5
  Dec 02, 2020 308   Tennessee Tech W 79-48 97%     5 - 0 +19.8 +7.7 +14.5
  Dec 06, 2020 84   @ Cincinnati W 77-69 59%     6 - 0 +16.6 +7.6 +8.8
  Dec 09, 2020 26   Oklahoma W 99-77 48%     7 - 0 +33.5 +32.8 +1.2
  Dec 20, 2020 54   Marquette W 91-88 61%     8 - 0 1 - 0 +11.2 +22.3 -11.1
  Dec 23, 2020 11   @ Creighton L 61-66 24%     8 - 1 1 - 1 +13.2 -8.9 +22.4
  Dec 30, 2020 45   Seton Hall L 68-85 56%     8 - 2 1 - 2 -7.6 +0.1 -8.1
  Jan 06, 2021 82   St. John's W 69-61 71%     9 - 2 2 - 2 +13.2 -12.5 +24.5
  Jan 10, 2021 59   Providence W 74-73 62%     10 - 2 3 - 2 +8.9 +5.2 +3.6
  Jan 26, 2021 114   Georgetown W 77-69 82%    
  Jan 29, 2021 92   @ Butler W 67-64 58%    
  Feb 07, 2021 4   @ Villanova L 67-76 17%    
  Feb 11, 2021 91   DePaul W 76-69 78%    
  Feb 13, 2021 24   Connecticut L 68-69 53%    
  Feb 21, 2021 92   Butler W 69-62 76%    
  Feb 24, 2021 59   @ Providence L 71-72 44%    
  Feb 27, 2021 11   Creighton L 72-76 41%    
  Mar 02, 2021 114   @ Georgetown W 75-70 64%    
  Mar 06, 2021 54   @ Marquette L 72-73 43%    
Projected Record 16 - 6 9 - 6





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 1.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.0 1.6 0.1 5.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 7.2 4.5 0.8 14.3 4th
5th 0.1 2.3 9.2 7.6 1.3 0.0 20.5 5th
6th 1.9 8.9 9.5 1.7 0.0 22.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 6.5 7.5 1.4 0.0 16.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.0 6.1 1.6 0.0 12.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.6 2.4 0.7 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 1.7 10th
11th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 11th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.3 7.9 15.2 20.4 22.0 17.4 9.3 3.1 0.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 19.9% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.5% 100.0% 16.0% 84.0% 2.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-8 3.1% 100.0% 15.1% 84.9% 4.2 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 100.0%
11-9 9.3% 99.4% 10.9% 88.5% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 2.2 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.3%
10-10 17.4% 97.4% 6.2% 91.2% 7.7 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.1 3.7 3.9 3.2 1.8 0.4 0.1 0.5 97.2%
9-11 22.0% 88.2% 5.6% 82.6% 9.2 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.0 4.4 4.3 3.4 1.2 0.1 2.6 87.5%
8-12 20.4% 69.3% 2.8% 66.5% 10.5 0.2 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.5 4.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 6.3 68.4%
7-13 15.2% 34.9% 2.0% 32.9% 11.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.6 2.3 0.5 0.1 9.9 33.6%
6-14 7.9% 10.5% 1.0% 9.5% 12.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.1 9.6%
5-15 3.3% 1.8% 0.6% 1.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 3.2 1.2%
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 69.5% 4.8% 64.7% 8.6 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.8 4.3 5.8 7.5 8.6 10.0 10.3 9.9 7.1 1.1 0.2 30.5 68.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.0 25.3 50.6 24.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 100.0% 2.4 12.2 49.4 25.6 12.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 2.6 50.3 37.1 12.6
Lose Out 0.1%