Michigan
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.1#4
Expected Predictive Rating+21.6#3
Pace69.8#184
Improvement+4.1#17

Offense
Total Offense+9.8#10
First Shot+9.1#8
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#135
Layup/Dunks+4.2#43
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#62
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#106
Freethrows+0.6#143
Improvement+1.6#67

Defense
Total Defense+8.3#7
First Shot+5.7#31
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#31
Layups/Dunks+4.4#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#328
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#119
Freethrows+2.8#30
Improvement+2.5#32
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 8.5% 11.4% 4.6%
#1 Seed 37.6% 46.4% 25.5%
Top 2 Seed 71.6% 81.3% 58.4%
Top 4 Seed 94.1% 97.5% 89.5%
Top 6 Seed 98.9% 99.7% 97.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 2.1 1.8 2.6
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.7% 98.5%
Conference Champion 40.9% 50.0% 28.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round99.9% 99.9% 99.8%
Second Round93.2% 95.5% 90.1%
Sweet Sixteen63.7% 67.4% 58.8%
Elite Eight38.0% 41.1% 33.7%
Final Four20.0% 22.7% 16.4%
Championship Game10.0% 11.0% 8.7%
National Champion4.7% 5.2% 3.9%

Next Game: Purdue (Away) - 57.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 35 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 18 - 5
Quad 26 - 113 - 5
Quad 35 - 018 - 6
Quad 42 - 020 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 116   Bowling Green W 96-82 93%     1 - 0 +15.9 +18.5 -3.4
  Nov 29, 2020 251   Oakland W 81-71 OT 98%     2 - 0 +2.5 -9.3 +10.2
  Dec 02, 2020 145   Ball St. W 84-65 95%     3 - 0 +18.5 +7.4 +10.2
  Dec 06, 2020 90   Central Florida W 80-58 90%     4 - 0 +26.1 +16.7 +11.1
  Dec 09, 2020 72   Toledo W 91-71 88%     5 - 0 +25.5 +18.2 +7.6
  Dec 13, 2020 57   Penn St. W 62-58 83%     6 - 0 1 - 0 +12.0 -5.8 +18.0
  Dec 25, 2020 124   @ Nebraska W 80-69 88%     7 - 0 2 - 0 +16.0 +6.4 +9.2
  Dec 31, 2020 55   @ Maryland W 84-73 72%     8 - 0 3 - 0 +22.9 +18.9 +4.4
  Jan 03, 2021 70   Northwestern W 85-66 87%     9 - 0 4 - 0 +24.7 +13.0 +11.4
  Jan 06, 2021 23   Minnesota W 82-57 73%     10 - 0 5 - 0 +36.7 +17.1 +20.3
  Jan 12, 2021 11   Wisconsin W 77-54 63%     11 - 0 6 - 0 +37.8 +18.1 +21.5
  Jan 16, 2021 23   @ Minnesota L 57-75 61%     11 - 1 6 - 1 -2.7 -9.3 +6.8
  Jan 19, 2021 55   Maryland W 87-63 82%     12 - 1 7 - 1 +32.3 +16.8 +15.5
  Jan 22, 2021 27   @ Purdue W 70-67 58%    
  Jan 30, 2021 31   Indiana W 74-67 79%    
  Feb 03, 2021 70   @ Northwestern W 77-68 75%    
  Feb 06, 2021 41   Michigan St. W 77-69 82%    
  Feb 11, 2021 9   Illinois W 77-74 65%    
  Feb 14, 2021 11   @ Wisconsin L 66-67 46%    
  Feb 18, 2021 42   Rutgers W 76-67 82%    
  Feb 21, 2021 18   @ Ohio St. W 73-71 51%    
  Feb 27, 2021 31   @ Indiana W 72-68 59%    
  Mar 04, 2021 3   Iowa L 80-81 54%    
  Mar 07, 2021 41   @ Michigan St. W 76-71 64%    
Projected Record 19 - 5 14 - 5





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.0 5.4 13.1 14.0 5.7 1.7 40.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 6.8 11.4 8.6 1.7 0.0 29.5 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.2 6.8 3.6 0.3 14.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.7 3.7 1.7 0.0 7.1 4th
5th 0.1 2.6 1.6 0.1 4.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 1.1 0.2 2.1 6th
7th 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 0.1 0.7 1.7 6.0 9.5 16.4 20.4 22.1 15.7 5.7 1.7 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 1.7    1.7
17-3 99.2% 5.7    5.4 0.3
16-4 89.2% 14.0    10.3 3.6 0.1
15-5 59.4% 13.1    6.2 5.9 1.0
14-6 26.6% 5.4    1.3 2.4 1.4 0.3 0.0
13-7 5.9% 1.0    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 40.9% 40.9 25.0 12.5 2.7 0.7 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 1.7% 100.0% 25.4% 74.6% 1.0 1.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 5.7% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 1.2 4.7 0.9 0.0 100.0%
16-4 15.7% 100.0% 33.0% 67.0% 1.3 11.2 4.3 0.2 100.0%
15-5 22.1% 100.0% 25.7% 74.3% 1.5 11.4 9.4 1.2 0.0 100.0%
14-6 20.4% 100.0% 19.6% 80.4% 1.9 5.9 11.1 3.0 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-7 16.4% 100.0% 17.6% 82.4% 2.5 2.2 6.3 6.0 1.7 0.2 0.1 100.0%
12-8 9.5% 100.0% 10.6% 89.4% 3.3 0.4 1.7 3.5 2.7 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
11-9 6.0% 100.0% 10.4% 89.6% 4.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.0 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.0 100.0%
10-10 1.7% 100.0% 2.5% 97.5% 5.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
9-11 0.7% 93.8% 93.8% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.8%
8-12 0.1% 66.7% 66.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 66.7%
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 99.9% 21.6% 78.3% 2.1 37.6 34.0 15.4 7.1 3.4 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 99.5 0.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 100.0% 1.1 93.1 6.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 100.0% 1.0 99.5 0.5