Creighton
Big East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.9#12
Expected Predictive Rating+12.9#41
Pace71.6#135
Improvement-0.9#227

Offense
Total Offense+9.6#11
First Shot+9.3#6
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#159
Layup/Dunks+4.9#33
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#226
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.1#24
Freethrows-0.7#217
Improvement-2.0#296

Defense
Total Defense+6.3#32
First Shot+3.8#62
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#36
Layups/Dunks+1.8#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#228
Freethrows+2.1#59
Improvement+1.0#101
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.7% 2.3% 0.3%
Top 2 Seed 6.7% 8.8% 1.7%
Top 4 Seed 30.7% 37.0% 15.7%
Top 6 Seed 58.6% 66.3% 40.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 93.5% 96.1% 87.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.3% 94.6% 84.2%
Average Seed 5.8 5.4 6.8
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.0% 99.7% 97.2%
Conference Champion 47.9% 56.3% 27.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 1.1% 3.2%
First Round92.9% 95.6% 86.2%
Second Round68.8% 73.1% 58.4%
Sweet Sixteen37.1% 41.1% 27.6%
Elite Eight17.8% 20.0% 12.7%
Final Four8.3% 9.4% 5.8%
Championship Game3.6% 4.1% 2.3%
National Champion1.4% 1.6% 0.9%

Next Game: Connecticut (Home) - 70.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 16 - 4
Quad 24 - 310 - 7
Quad 35 - 115 - 8
Quad 44 - 019 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 29, 2020 159   North Dakota St. W 69-58 94%     1 - 0 +9.5 -0.9 +10.9
  Dec 01, 2020 263   Nebraska Omaha W 94-67 98%     2 - 0 +19.0 +11.8 +5.5
  Dec 04, 2020 340   Kennesaw St. W 93-58 99%     3 - 0 +18.5 +14.1 +3.8
  Dec 08, 2020 15   @ Kansas L 72-73 44%     3 - 1 +16.3 +3.4 +13.0
  Dec 11, 2020 122   Nebraska W 98-74 90%     4 - 1 +25.5 +11.9 +10.2
  Dec 14, 2020 58   Marquette L 84-89 77%     4 - 2 0 - 1 +3.1 +17.1 -14.3
  Dec 17, 2020 79   @ St. John's W 94-76 75%     5 - 2 1 - 1 +26.8 +17.9 +7.6
  Dec 20, 2020 26   @ Connecticut W 76-74 OT 54%     6 - 2 2 - 1 +17.0 +3.9 +12.9
  Dec 23, 2020 45   Xavier W 66-61 74%     7 - 2 3 - 1 +14.2 -7.3 +21.1
  Jan 02, 2021 54   @ Providence W 67-65 64%     8 - 2 4 - 1 +14.3 +1.2 +13.2
  Jan 06, 2021 39   Seton Hall W 89-53 72%     9 - 2 5 - 1 +45.7 +21.7 +24.9
  Jan 09, 2021 79   St. John's W 97-79 84%     10 - 2 6 - 1 +23.2 +20.7 +1.5
  Jan 16, 2021 81   @ Butler L 66-70 OT 75%     10 - 3 6 - 2 +4.7 -1.1 +5.8
  Jan 20, 2021 54   Providence L 70-74 75%     10 - 4 6 - 3 +4.7 +0.0 +4.7
  Jan 23, 2021 26   Connecticut W 73-68 70%    
  Jan 27, 2021 39   @ Seton Hall W 76-73 55%    
  Jan 30, 2021 109   @ DePaul W 79-69 78%    
  Feb 03, 2021 108   Georgetown W 82-69 91%    
  Feb 06, 2021 58   @ Marquette W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 09, 2021 108   @ Georgetown W 80-70 78%    
  Feb 13, 2021 5   Villanova L 73-74 54%    
  Feb 24, 2021 109   DePaul W 80-67 91%    
  Feb 27, 2021 45   @ Xavier W 75-72 57%    
  Mar 03, 2021 5   @ Villanova L 72-76 33%    
  Mar 06, 2021 81   Butler W 73-62 86%    
Projected Record 18 - 7 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 5.2 14.0 16.2 9.6 2.2 47.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 7.2 13.1 9.3 2.1 0.0 32.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 6.1 2.4 0.2 12.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 2.1 0.7 0.0 4.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.8 7.2 14.6 20.8 23.5 18.2 9.6 2.2 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 2.2    2.2
16-4 100.0% 9.6    9.1 0.5
15-5 88.5% 16.2    12.3 3.8 0.1
14-6 59.6% 14.0    7.3 6.0 0.7 0.0
13-7 25.1% 5.2    1.3 2.6 1.2 0.2
12-8 4.6% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-9 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 47.9% 47.9 32.2 13.1 2.2 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.2% 100.0% 44.9% 55.1% 1.9 0.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 9.6% 100.0% 37.7% 62.3% 2.8 0.8 2.7 3.9 1.7 0.4 0.1 100.0%
15-5 18.2% 100.0% 33.2% 66.8% 4.0 0.1 1.2 5.3 5.5 4.1 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 23.5% 99.8% 27.5% 72.3% 5.4 0.0 0.1 2.0 4.2 6.7 5.8 3.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.7%
13-7 20.8% 97.9% 22.0% 75.9% 6.9 0.1 0.8 2.8 4.6 5.3 4.3 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.4 97.3%
12-8 14.6% 90.7% 16.9% 73.8% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.6 2.6 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.4 88.8%
11-9 7.2% 70.9% 12.7% 58.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.7 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.0 2.1 66.7%
10-10 2.8% 41.1% 11.6% 29.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.7 33.4%
9-11 0.8% 14.5% 9.0% 5.5% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 6.0%
8-12 0.2% 2.6% 2.6% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 93.5% 25.5% 68.0% 5.8 1.7 5.0 11.8 12.3 14.5 13.4 11.6 10.0 5.4 3.9 2.6 1.2 0.1 0.0 6.5 91.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 1.5 53.4 41.2 5.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 1.9 25.2 55.5 18.9 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5% 100.0% 2.3 15.7 49.3 29.3 5.2 0.4