Northwestern
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
Switch to All-time Team Page
Overall
Predictive Rating+7.4#73
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#61
Pace70.2#173
Improvement-4.3#337

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#72
First Shot+7.3#23
After Offensive Rebound-2.9#308
Layup/Dunks+1.5#124
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#65
Freethrows+1.2#103
Improvement-2.2#303

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#97
First Shot+1.5#127
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#80
Layups/Dunks+3.4#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#266
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#281
Freethrows+2.0#67
Improvement-2.1#301
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 1.2% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 11.1% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.5% 10.6% 2.2%
Average Seed 10.2 9.9 10.9
.500 or above 7.0% 15.7% 3.6%
.500 or above in Conference 6.1% 14.2% 3.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 1.1% 5.1%
First Four2.1% 4.2% 1.2%
First Round3.7% 8.9% 1.7%
Second Round1.6% 4.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 1.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn St. (Away) - 28.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 102 - 10
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 12
Quad 22 - 26 - 15
Quad 32 - 07 - 15
Quad 42 - 09 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Dec 02, 2020 343   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 92-49 98%     1 - 0 +24.3 +5.2 +16.7
  Dec 05, 2020 347   Chicago St. W 111-66 99%     2 - 0 +22.6 +14.5 +0.9
  Dec 09, 2020 59   Pittsburgh L 70-71 47%     2 - 1 +7.0 -3.2 +10.3
  Dec 20, 2020 40   Michigan St. W 79-65 42%     3 - 1 1 - 0 +23.5 +12.5 +11.2
  Dec 23, 2020 23   @ Indiana W 74-67 22%     4 - 1 2 - 0 +22.4 +12.9 +9.8
  Dec 26, 2020 20   Ohio St. W 71-70 31%     5 - 1 3 - 0 +13.6 +5.0 +8.7
  Dec 29, 2020 3   @ Iowa L 72-87 12%     5 - 2 3 - 1 +5.3 +5.0 +0.0
  Jan 03, 2021 4   @ Michigan L 66-85 13%     5 - 3 3 - 2 +0.8 +1.3 -0.2
  Jan 07, 2021 9   Illinois L 56-81 23%     5 - 4 3 - 3 -9.7 -10.5 +0.6
  Jan 13, 2021 20   @ Ohio St. L 71-81 20%     5 - 5 3 - 4 +6.2 +2.5 +3.8
  Jan 17, 2021 3   Iowa L 73-96 19%     5 - 6 3 - 5 -6.3 +0.8 -6.7
  Jan 20, 2021 11   @ Wisconsin L 52-68 15%     5 - 7 3 - 6 +2.4 -3.7 +3.8
  Jan 23, 2021 52   @ Penn St. L 73-78 28%    
  Jan 31, 2021 48   Rutgers L 71-72 49%    
  Feb 03, 2021 4   Michigan L 68-77 23%    
  Feb 06, 2021 28   @ Purdue L 65-72 20%    
  Feb 10, 2021 23   Indiana L 68-72 38%    
  Feb 13, 2021 48   @ Rutgers L 69-74 28%    
  Feb 16, 2021 9   @ Illinois L 70-81 12%    
  Feb 21, 2021 11   Wisconsin L 63-70 29%    
  Feb 27, 2021 25   @ Minnesota L 71-79 21%    
  Mar 03, 2021 56   Maryland L 71-72 51%    
  Mar 06, 2021 122   Nebraska W 79-73 74%    
Projected Record 9 - 14 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.3 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.3 2.4 1.5 0.1 4.4 7th
8th 0.1 2.5 3.9 0.5 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 1.9 6.4 2.3 0.1 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 1.3 7.2 5.3 0.4 0.0 14.3 10th
11th 0.0 1.2 6.8 8.8 1.6 0.0 18.4 11th
12th 0.0 1.1 6.7 10.0 3.2 0.1 21.1 12th
13th 1.0 5.6 8.1 3.3 0.3 18.3 13th
14th 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.2 14th
Total 1.5 7.3 16.1 21.5 21.6 16.3 9.5 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 6.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-8 1.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 100.0% 6.3% 93.8% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 0.4% 99.0% 4.4% 94.7% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.0%
11-9 1.5% 91.8% 2.0% 89.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 91.7%
10-10 4.2% 50.1% 1.1% 49.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.1 49.5%
9-11 9.5% 7.1% 0.6% 6.5% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 8.9 6.6%
8-12 16.3% 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.2 0.5%
7-13 21.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.5 0.0%
6-14 21.5% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.5
5-15 16.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 16.1
4-16 7.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.3
3-17 1.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 4.8% 0.3% 4.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 95.2 4.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%