Providence
Big East
2019-20 - 2020-21 - 2021-22
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.2#58
Expected Predictive Rating+11.2#50
Pace67.6#232
Improvement+1.7#88

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#43
First Shot+4.5#60
After Offensive Rebound+1.8#68
Layup/Dunks+3.3#58
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#102
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#264
Freethrows+2.6#26
Improvement-1.3#262

Defense
Total Defense+3.9#72
First Shot+7.5#10
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#341
Layups/Dunks+0.6#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#44
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#27
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement+2.9#22
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 2.6% 3.7% 0.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 33.6% 41.0% 19.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 30.4% 37.7% 16.9%
Average Seed 9.8 9.6 10.4
.500 or above 69.3% 79.3% 50.8%
.500 or above in Conference 46.1% 56.9% 26.0%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.9% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 1.1%
First Four8.8% 10.0% 6.6%
First Round29.3% 36.1% 16.6%
Second Round13.5% 16.9% 7.3%
Sweet Sixteen4.1% 5.2% 2.2%
Elite Eight1.4% 1.8% 0.7%
Final Four0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Home) - 65.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 7
Quad 25 - 48 - 12
Quad 34 - 112 - 13
Quad 42 - 014 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 314   Fairfield W 97-56 97%     1 - 0 +29.2 +17.6 +10.4
  Nov 30, 2020 24   Indiana L 58-79 39%     1 - 1 -7.9 -5.2 -3.8
  Dec 01, 2020 64   Davidson W 63-62 56%     2 - 1 +9.8 +2.1 +7.9
  Dec 02, 2020 8   Alabama L 71-88 24%     2 - 2 +0.6 +8.1 -7.9
  Dec 05, 2020 307   Fairleigh Dickinson W 79-67 96%     3 - 2 +1.0 -5.5 +6.0
  Dec 09, 2020 100   @ TCU W 79-70 64%     4 - 2 +15.7 +15.6 +0.8
  Dec 20, 2020 40   @ Seton Hall W 80-77 OT 39%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +16.1 +8.5 +7.5
  Dec 23, 2020 85   @ Butler L 64-70 57%     5 - 3 1 - 1 +2.4 -1.8 +4.1
  Dec 27, 2020 93   DePaul W 95-90 2OT 73%     6 - 3 2 - 1 +9.0 +5.4 +2.5
  Dec 30, 2020 85   Butler W 71-55 69%     7 - 3 3 - 1 +21.1 +12.6 +10.7
  Jan 02, 2021 12   Creighton L 65-67 34%     7 - 4 3 - 2 +12.4 +0.0 +12.3
  Jan 10, 2021 47   @ Xavier L 73-74 41%     7 - 5 3 - 3 +11.6 +8.1 +3.5
  Jan 12, 2021 63   @ Marquette L 69-79 48%     7 - 6 3 - 4 +0.7 +5.3 -5.3
  Jan 20, 2021 12   @ Creighton W 74-70 24%     8 - 6 4 - 4 +21.7 +8.3 +13.4
  Jan 23, 2021 5   @ Villanova L 56-71 19%     8 - 7 4 - 5 +4.6 -9.3 +13.6
  Jan 27, 2021 63   Marquette W 73-70 65%    
  Jan 30, 2021 108   @ Georgetown W 74-70 60%    
  Feb 03, 2021 40   Seton Hall W 73-72 56%    
  Feb 06, 2021 79   St. John's W 80-75 71%    
  Feb 10, 2021 23   Connecticut L 67-68 50%    
  Feb 13, 2021 93   @ DePaul W 72-69 56%    
  Feb 16, 2021 23   @ Connecticut L 65-70 29%    
  Feb 24, 2021 47   Xavier W 72-71 58%    
  Mar 03, 2021 79   @ St. John's W 78-77 50%    
  Mar 06, 2021 5   Villanova L 68-74 33%    
Projected Record 13 - 12 9 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.3 4.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.0 6.3 4.5 0.7 0.0 13.6 3rd
4th 0.2 3.7 10.5 7.1 1.0 0.0 22.4 4th
5th 0.1 3.3 11.3 7.2 1.0 0.0 22.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.9 8.6 5.4 0.6 0.0 16.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 4.9 4.3 0.4 0.0 10.3 7th
8th 0.1 2.0 3.0 0.3 0.0 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
Total 0.2 1.4 4.3 10.3 16.8 20.9 20.3 14.9 7.8 2.6 0.5 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 40.1% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 12.2% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 1.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

With games being cancelled frequently this season, the conference records below may not be accurate. The number of wins in the table below are based on games that are currently scheduled and appear in the schedule above.
Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.5% 99.8% 16.7% 83.1% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
13-7 2.6% 98.9% 13.7% 85.3% 6.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.8%
12-8 7.8% 94.5% 10.3% 84.3% 8.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.2 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.4 93.9%
11-9 14.9% 76.4% 7.1% 69.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 2.5 3.3 1.8 0.1 3.5 74.6%
10-10 20.3% 43.9% 5.3% 38.7% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 2.1 4.0 0.8 0.0 0.0 11.4 40.8%
9-11 20.9% 11.1% 3.9% 7.2% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 18.6 7.5%
8-12 16.8% 2.7% 2.2% 0.5% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 16.4 0.5%
7-13 10.3% 1.0% 1.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.2
6-14 4.3% 0.6% 0.6% 14.9 0.0 0.0 4.3
5-15 1.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 1.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 33.6% 4.7% 28.9% 9.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.6 3.9 4.5 4.9 6.3 7.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 66.4 30.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.5 7.3 42.7 46.3 3.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 4.3 21.4 36.9 31.1 6.8 3.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 4.9 8.0 29.3 35.6 22.3 1.6 3.2
Lose Out 0.2%