Dayton
Atlantic 10
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#120
Expected Predictive Rating-2.5#211
Pace63.7#310
Improvement+3.3#13

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#117
First Shot-0.8#198
After Offensive Rebound+2.6#51
Layup/Dunks+0.0#165
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#134
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#255
Freethrows+1.2#96
Improvement+1.6#40

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#122
First Shot+2.8#89
After Offensive Rebounds-1.5#270
Layups/Dunks+3.1#75
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#313
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#143
Freethrows+1.0#130
Improvement+1.7#39
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 6.6% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.0% 2.0% 0.5%
Average Seed 11.6 11.2 12.0
.500 or above 59.0% 74.3% 51.3%
.500 or above in Conference 59.4% 66.7% 55.7%
Conference Champion 4.2% 5.8% 3.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.4% 1.1% 3.0%
First Four0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
First Round4.2% 6.1% 3.3%
Second Round1.0% 1.7% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.7% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Neutral) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 22 - 3
Quad 23 - 55 - 8
Quad 35 - 49 - 12
Quad 48 - 417 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 250   Illinois-Chicago W 64-54 85%     1 - 0 +2.2 -2.6 +6.4
  Nov 13, 2021 208   Umass Lowell L 58-59 78%     1 - 1 -6.1 -7.5 +1.2
  Nov 17, 2021 221   Lipscomb L 59-78 80%     1 - 2 -24.7 -14.3 -11.8
  Nov 20, 2021 259   Austin Peay L 81-87 86%     1 - 3 -14.3 -0.3 -13.7
  Nov 25, 2021 106   Miami (FL) W 76-60 45%     2 - 3 +20.3 +5.6 +15.2
  Nov 26, 2021 9   Kansas W 74-73 11%     3 - 3 +17.8 +9.4 +8.5
  Nov 28, 2021 63   Belmont L 69-74 34%    
  Dec 01, 2021 334   Alabama St. W 77-60 95%    
  Dec 04, 2021 312   Northern Illinois W 71-56 91%    
  Dec 08, 2021 94   @ SMU L 68-73 32%    
  Dec 12, 2021 28   Virginia Tech L 62-69 26%    
  Dec 18, 2021 74   @ Mississippi L 60-67 27%    
  Dec 21, 2021 291   Southern W 75-62 89%    
  Dec 30, 2021 72   @ Rhode Island L 63-70 27%    
  Jan 02, 2022 38   St. Bonaventure L 63-68 33%    
  Jan 05, 2022 79   Virginia Commonwealth L 60-61 48%    
  Jan 08, 2022 264   @ George Washington W 69-63 70%    
  Jan 11, 2022 60   Saint Louis L 68-70 44%    
  Jan 15, 2022 193   @ Duquesne W 68-67 55%    
  Jan 19, 2022 246   Fordham W 70-59 83%    
  Jan 22, 2022 117   @ George Mason L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 28, 2022 72   Rhode Island L 66-67 47%    
  Feb 02, 2022 79   @ Virginia Commonwealth L 57-64 28%    
  Feb 05, 2022 60   @ Saint Louis L 65-73 26%    
  Feb 09, 2022 193   Duquesne W 71-64 75%    
  Feb 12, 2022 264   George Washington W 72-60 85%    
  Feb 19, 2022 218   @ Saint Joseph's W 74-71 60%    
  Feb 23, 2022 119   Massachusetts W 78-75 60%    
  Feb 26, 2022 234   @ La Salle W 69-65 63%    
  Mar 01, 2022 76   @ Richmond L 67-74 29%    
  Mar 05, 2022 83   Davidson L 66-67 49%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 9 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Atlantic 10 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.5 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 4.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.2 2.5 1.7 0.5 0.0 5.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 7.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.8 4.8 1.0 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.3 3.2 5.0 1.7 0.1 10.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.1 5.9 2.6 0.3 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 5.0 3.7 0.4 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.2 4.2 0.9 0.0 10.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.8 1.1 0.0 8.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.0 1.0 0.1 6.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.1 4.3 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.4 0.1 2.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.6 5.0 7.7 10.7 12.9 14.2 12.8 11.7 8.7 5.9 3.6 1.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic 10 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 93.7% 0.6    0.5 0.1 0.0
15-3 73.1% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.0
14-4 41.0% 1.5    0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 10.3% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.2% 4.2 2.0 1.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.6% 60.3% 30.2% 30.2% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 43.2%
15-3 1.8% 35.4% 17.7% 17.7% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 1.1 21.5%
14-4 3.6% 16.6% 11.9% 4.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 3.0 5.3%
13-5 5.9% 13.3% 10.8% 2.5% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 5.1 2.8%
12-6 8.7% 8.7% 8.2% 0.6% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.1 7.9 0.6%
11-7 11.7% 4.1% 4.0% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 11.2 0.1%
10-8 12.8% 2.3% 2.3% 12.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 12.5
9-9 14.2% 1.8% 1.8% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 13.9
8-10 12.9% 0.8% 0.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.8
7-11 10.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.7
6-12 7.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 7.6
5-13 5.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.0
4-14 2.6% 2.6
3-15 1.2% 1.2
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.0 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 4.5% 3.5% 1.0% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.1 95.5 1.0%