Illinois
Big Ten
2020-21 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.8#33
Expected Predictive Rating+5.6#99
Pace74.2#66
Improvement-2.3#331

Offense
Total Offense+6.4#30
First Shot+2.7#103
After Offensive Rebound+3.7#15
Layup/Dunks-2.3#253
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#99
Freethrows+2.2#58
Improvement+1.0#77

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#46
First Shot+6.3#26
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#238
Layups/Dunks+7.2#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.8#351
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.4#66
Freethrows+0.5#158
Improvement-3.3#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.9% 1.0% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 2.9% 3.5% 1.1%
Top 4 Seed 11.2% 13.1% 5.5%
Top 6 Seed 24.9% 28.3% 14.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.5% 63.5% 43.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.4% 61.5% 41.2%
Average Seed 7.0 6.9 7.6
.500 or above 80.2% 85.0% 66.0%
.500 or above in Conference 60.3% 63.3% 51.3%
Conference Champion 5.2% 5.8% 3.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.1% 2.6% 4.4%
First Four4.9% 4.8% 5.2%
First Round56.2% 61.1% 41.2%
Second Round34.8% 38.7% 23.3%
Sweet Sixteen14.6% 16.5% 9.0%
Elite Eight6.1% 7.0% 3.2%
Final Four2.5% 2.8% 1.6%
Championship Game1.0% 1.1% 0.5%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Notre Dame (Home) - 75.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 25 - 310 - 13
Quad 34 - 114 - 14
Quad 45 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 249   Jackson St. W 71-47 96%     1 - 0 +16.2 +0.5 +16.7
  Nov 12, 2021 245   Arkansas St. W 92-53 95%     2 - 0 +31.7 +7.6 +20.9
  Nov 15, 2021 69   @ Marquette L 66-67 57%     2 - 1 +9.2 -7.0 +16.3
  Nov 22, 2021 57   Cincinnati L 51-71 63%     2 - 2 -11.7 -12.2 -0.6
  Nov 23, 2021 101   Kansas St. W 72-64 75%     3 - 2 +12.8 +6.4 +6.7
  Nov 26, 2021 282   UT Rio Grande Valley W 94-85 97%     4 - 2 -0.7 +11.6 -12.5
  Nov 29, 2021 64   Notre Dame W 77-70 75%    
  Dec 03, 2021 98   Rutgers W 74-64 82%    
  Dec 06, 2021 19   @ Iowa L 79-85 30%    
  Dec 11, 2021 6   Arizona L 75-78 41%    
  Dec 18, 2021 292   St. Francis (PA) W 87-65 98%    
  Dec 22, 2021 127   Missouri W 76-67 80%    
  Dec 29, 2021 306   Florida A&M W 82-59 98%    
  Jan 02, 2022 82   @ Minnesota W 74-72 58%    
  Jan 06, 2022 53   Maryland W 75-69 71%    
  Jan 11, 2022 109   @ Nebraska W 80-75 66%    
  Jan 14, 2022 16   Michigan W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 17, 2022 2   Purdue L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 21, 2022 53   @ Maryland W 72-71 51%    
  Jan 25, 2022 21   Michigan St. W 73-72 53%    
  Jan 29, 2022 42   @ Northwestern L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 02, 2022 31   Wisconsin W 69-66 59%    
  Feb 05, 2022 30   @ Indiana L 70-73 38%    
  Feb 10, 2022 2   @ Purdue L 70-81 17%    
  Feb 13, 2022 42   Northwestern W 77-72 67%    
  Feb 16, 2022 98   @ Rutgers W 71-67 63%    
  Feb 19, 2022 21   @ Michigan St. L 70-75 34%    
  Feb 24, 2022 29   Ohio St. W 76-74 58%    
  Feb 27, 2022 16   @ Michigan L 69-75 30%    
  Mar 03, 2022 68   Penn St. W 71-63 76%    
  Mar 06, 2022 19   Iowa W 82-81 51%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.3 2.4 1.1 0.1 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 3.3 2.9 0.8 0.2 8.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 3.8 3.3 0.9 0.1 9.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.9 1.2 0.2 9.5 5th
6th 0.3 3.1 4.5 1.8 0.2 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.3 4.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 9.7 7th
8th 0.1 1.5 4.6 3.1 0.5 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 3.8 3.3 0.6 0.0 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.6 3.3 0.9 0.0 7.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.7 1.0 0.1 6.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.9 0.8 0.2 4.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.6 0.1 3.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.1 1.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.1 5.2 7.0 10.1 11.5 12.2 11.7 11.3 9.1 6.8 4.7 2.8 1.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.4    0.3 0.0
17-3 89.2% 1.2    0.9 0.3 0.0
16-4 55.0% 1.6    0.9 0.5 0.2
15-5 27.7% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
14-6 8.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 5.2% 5.2 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.1% 0.1 0.0
18-2 0.4% 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 1.6 0.2 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.3% 100.0% 16.9% 83.1% 2.4 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 2.8% 100.0% 15.6% 84.4% 3.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.7% 100.0% 15.9% 84.1% 4.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 6.8% 99.7% 10.6% 89.1% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
13-7 9.1% 99.3% 9.8% 89.5% 6.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.3 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.1 99.3%
12-8 11.3% 96.3% 6.3% 90.0% 7.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.9 3.0 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 96.0%
11-9 11.7% 87.3% 3.8% 83.4% 8.4 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 2.5 2.1 1.5 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.5 86.8%
10-10 12.2% 64.3% 2.4% 61.9% 9.5 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 1.4 1.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 4.4 63.4%
9-11 11.5% 30.3% 1.2% 29.1% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 8.0 29.4%
8-12 10.1% 9.0% 0.7% 8.3% 11.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.1 9.2 8.3%
7-13 7.0% 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 6.9 1.6%
6-14 5.2% 5.2
5-15 3.1% 3.1
4-16 1.8% 1.8
3-17 0.7% 0.7
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 58.5% 4.8% 53.7% 7.0 0.9 2.1 3.8 4.5 6.4 7.3 8.6 7.9 5.6 4.4 4.6 2.3 0.3 0.0 41.5 56.4%