Michigan St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.0#21
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#13
Pace71.9#110
Improvement+1.0#90

Offense
Total Offense+4.9#56
First Shot+3.8#70
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#111
Layup/Dunks+4.8#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#248
Freethrows+1.0#118
Improvement-0.4#234

Defense
Total Defense+9.1#5
First Shot+11.2#3
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#299
Layups/Dunks+1.5#133
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#55
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.3#30
Freethrows+2.2#62
Improvement+1.4#56
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.4% 1.8% 0.5%
#1 Seed 6.5% 7.9% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 17.1% 20.7% 8.9%
Top 4 Seed 42.2% 48.2% 28.5%
Top 6 Seed 64.4% 70.0% 51.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 88.3% 91.8% 80.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.1% 90.9% 78.7%
Average Seed 5.1 4.8 5.8
.500 or above 94.7% 97.1% 89.0%
.500 or above in Conference 81.4% 83.8% 75.8%
Conference Champion 12.3% 14.0% 8.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.6% 1.4%
First Four3.6% 3.2% 4.7%
First Round86.6% 90.3% 78.0%
Second Round63.5% 67.7% 53.9%
Sweet Sixteen34.0% 37.4% 25.9%
Elite Eight15.5% 17.4% 11.0%
Final Four6.6% 7.5% 4.4%
Championship Game2.7% 3.1% 1.9%
National Champion1.0% 1.1% 0.6%

Next Game: Louisville (Home) - 69.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 38 - 9
Quad 27 - 214 - 11
Quad 34 - 019 - 11
Quad 43 - 022 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 9   Kansas L 74-87 39%     0 - 1 +3.8 +1.3 +3.7
  Nov 12, 2021 294   Western Michigan W 90-46 98%     1 - 1 +33.6 +7.8 +24.8
  Nov 17, 2021 104   @ Butler W 73-52 74%     2 - 1 +28.4 +7.0 +21.7
  Nov 20, 2021 241   Eastern Michigan W 83-59 96%     3 - 1 +16.9 +0.2 +14.5
  Nov 24, 2021 32   Loyola Chicago W 63-61 58%     4 - 1 +13.9 -2.4 +16.4
  Nov 25, 2021 13   Connecticut W 64-60 46%     5 - 1 +19.0 -0.8 +19.8
  Nov 26, 2021 3   Baylor L 58-75 32%     5 - 2 +1.8 -1.0 +1.2
  Dec 01, 2021 36   Louisville W 71-65 70%    
  Dec 04, 2021 118   Toledo W 80-66 90%    
  Dec 08, 2021 82   @ Minnesota W 72-67 67%    
  Dec 11, 2021 68   Penn St. W 69-59 81%    
  Dec 21, 2021 125   Oakland W 74-63 85%    
  Dec 29, 2021 285   High Point W 78-54 99%    
  Jan 02, 2022 42   @ Northwestern W 71-70 54%    
  Jan 05, 2022 109   Nebraska W 80-67 88%    
  Jan 08, 2022 16   @ Michigan L 66-70 36%    
  Jan 12, 2022 82   Minnesota W 75-64 83%    
  Jan 15, 2022 42   Northwestern W 74-67 74%    
  Jan 21, 2022 31   @ Wisconsin L 64-65 46%    
  Jan 25, 2022 33   @ Illinois L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 29, 2022 16   Michigan W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 01, 2022 53   @ Maryland W 69-67 58%    
  Feb 05, 2022 98   @ Rutgers W 68-62 71%    
  Feb 08, 2022 31   Wisconsin W 67-62 67%    
  Feb 12, 2022 30   Indiana W 70-65 66%    
  Feb 15, 2022 68   @ Penn St. W 66-62 62%    
  Feb 19, 2022 33   Illinois W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 22, 2022 19   @ Iowa L 76-79 38%    
  Feb 26, 2022 2   Purdue L 71-73 41%    
  Mar 03, 2022 29   @ Ohio St. L 70-72 44%    
  Mar 06, 2022 53   Maryland W 72-64 76%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.4 3.4 1.8 0.6 0.1 12.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.3 5.2 2.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 15.2 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 5.1 5.1 2.1 0.5 14.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.0 4.4 1.2 0.2 11.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.2 2.4 4.5 2.0 0.2 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.6 2.1 0.1 7.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.7 2.1 0.4 6.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 5.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9 0.5 0.0 3.8 10th
11th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.7 3.0 5.3 7.1 9.3 11.9 12.4 12.7 11.5 9.7 6.8 4.5 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 98.2% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 91.5% 1.8    1.6 0.2 0.0
17-3 75.6% 3.4    2.6 0.8 0.0
16-4 50.3% 3.4    1.6 1.5 0.3
15-5 22.6% 2.2    0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1
14-6 6.3% 0.7    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.3% 12.3 7.2 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.1 0.0
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 31.6% 68.4% 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 30.0% 70.0% 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.1 100.0%
17-3 4.5% 100.0% 23.9% 76.1% 1.7 2.1 1.9 0.5 0.1 100.0%
16-4 6.8% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 2.2 1.6 2.9 1.7 0.5 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 9.7% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 2.8 0.8 3.0 3.4 1.9 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-6 11.5% 100.0% 13.5% 86.5% 3.6 0.3 1.4 3.9 3.6 1.8 0.5 0.1 100.0%
13-7 12.7% 99.9% 9.5% 90.4% 4.6 0.1 0.4 2.2 3.6 3.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-8 12.4% 99.9% 6.1% 93.9% 5.5 0.1 0.7 1.9 3.5 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.9%
11-9 11.9% 98.9% 3.7% 95.2% 6.6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.1 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.9%
10-10 9.3% 94.4% 2.3% 92.2% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.7 1.9 1.6 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.5 94.3%
9-11 7.1% 72.7% 2.0% 70.7% 9.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 1.9 72.2%
8-12 5.3% 39.3% 0.9% 38.4% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.6 0.1 3.2 38.7%
7-13 3.0% 10.0% 1.7% 8.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.7 8.5%
6-14 1.7% 1.2% 1.2% 12.5 0.0 0.0 1.7 1.2%
5-15 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 12.0 0.0 0.9
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 88.3% 9.6% 78.8% 5.1 6.5 10.7 12.6 12.5 11.6 10.5 7.5 5.2 3.5 2.9 3.0 1.6 0.2 11.7 87.1%