Ohio St.
Big Ten
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.5#29
Expected Predictive Rating+11.3#55
Pace66.3#257
Improvement+3.0#17

Offense
Total Offense+9.3#9
First Shot+8.2#11
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#108
Layup/Dunks+1.9#104
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#165
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#34
Freethrows+0.6#147
Improvement+0.8#92

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#80
First Shot+5.2#42
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#290
Layups/Dunks+2.6#94
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.9#57
Freethrows-1.0#242
Improvement+2.3#18
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.9% 0.1%
#1 Seed 2.2% 3.8% 1.2%
Top 2 Seed 6.1% 10.7% 3.2%
Top 4 Seed 19.7% 28.5% 14.2%
Top 6 Seed 38.1% 50.6% 30.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.3% 84.9% 64.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 70.1% 83.4% 62.1%
Average Seed 6.4 5.9 6.8
.500 or above 86.5% 94.4% 81.6%
.500 or above in Conference 74.5% 81.3% 70.2%
Conference Champion 8.3% 11.0% 6.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.8% 2.2%
First Four4.9% 4.2% 5.3%
First Round70.0% 83.0% 61.9%
Second Round45.6% 57.0% 38.4%
Sweet Sixteen20.7% 28.0% 16.1%
Elite Eight8.7% 12.4% 6.4%
Final Four3.6% 5.4% 2.4%
Championship Game1.4% 2.2% 0.9%
National Champion0.6% 0.9% 0.4%

Next Game: Duke (Home) - 38.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 7 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 73 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 36 - 10
Quad 25 - 212 - 12
Quad 33 - 015 - 13
Quad 45 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 166   Akron W 67-66 92%     1 - 0 -2.1 +3.5 -5.4
  Nov 12, 2021 224   Niagara W 84-74 95%     2 - 0 +3.9 +8.9 -4.9
  Nov 15, 2021 220   Bowling Green W 89-58 94%     3 - 0 +25.3 +8.5 +15.9
  Nov 18, 2021 40   @ Xavier L 65-71 46%     3 - 1 +7.6 +1.2 +6.3
  Nov 22, 2021 27   Seton Hall W 79-76 47%     4 - 1 +16.2 +16.2 +0.1
  Nov 24, 2021 15   Florida L 68-71 41%     4 - 2 +11.9 +4.0 +7.8
  Nov 30, 2021 4   Duke L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 05, 2021 68   @ Penn St. W 67-65 59%    
  Dec 08, 2021 164   Towson W 78-62 93%    
  Dec 11, 2021 31   Wisconsin W 68-65 62%    
  Dec 18, 2021 12   Kentucky L 72-75 40%    
  Dec 21, 2021 345   Tennessee Martin W 88-59 99.6%   
  Dec 28, 2021 271   New Orleans W 89-67 97%    
  Jan 02, 2022 109   @ Nebraska W 78-73 68%    
  Jan 06, 2022 30   @ Indiana L 68-71 41%    
  Jan 09, 2022 42   Northwestern W 75-70 70%    
  Jan 13, 2022 31   @ Wisconsin L 65-68 41%    
  Jan 16, 2022 68   Penn St. W 70-62 78%    
  Jan 22, 2022 109   Nebraska W 81-70 85%    
  Jan 27, 2022 82   @ Minnesota W 73-70 61%    
  Jan 30, 2022 2   @ Purdue L 69-79 18%    
  Feb 03, 2022 19   Iowa W 80-79 54%    
  Feb 06, 2022 53   Maryland W 74-67 73%    
  Feb 09, 2022 98   @ Rutgers W 69-65 65%    
  Feb 12, 2022 16   @ Michigan L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 15, 2022 82   Minnesota W 76-67 79%    
  Feb 19, 2022 30   Indiana W 71-68 62%    
  Feb 24, 2022 33   @ Illinois L 74-76 42%    
  Feb 27, 2022 53   @ Maryland W 71-70 53%    
  Mar 03, 2022 21   Michigan St. W 72-70 56%    
  Mar 06, 2022 16   Michigan W 71-70 53%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.3 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 8.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.4 4.2 2.3 0.7 0.1 11.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 4.3 4.2 1.9 0.3 0.0 12.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.3 4.6 1.3 0.2 11.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 3.6 4.7 1.6 0.1 0.0 10.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.8 4.3 1.9 0.2 9.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.3 2.4 0.3 0.0 9.2 7th
8th 0.9 3.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 2.5 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.2 9th
10th 0.2 1.7 2.2 0.8 0.1 5.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.8 0.0 3.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.8 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 2.8 4.4 6.7 8.8 11.0 12.2 12.8 11.9 9.5 8.0 4.9 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4 0.0
18-2 95.0% 1.1    0.9 0.2
17-3 74.7% 2.0    1.5 0.5 0.1
16-4 47.2% 2.3    1.2 0.9 0.2
15-5 22.2% 1.8    0.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
14-6 6.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.7 2.6 0.8 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.4% 100.0% 37.8% 62.2% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 1.2% 100.0% 34.5% 65.5% 1.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 2.7% 100.0% 26.4% 73.6% 2.3 0.6 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-4 4.9% 100.0% 21.3% 78.7% 3.0 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-5 8.0% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 3.9 0.3 0.8 2.4 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 9.5% 99.9% 12.4% 87.5% 5.0 0.1 0.2 1.2 1.9 2.7 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-7 11.9% 99.5% 8.6% 90.9% 6.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.6 3.1 2.4 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.4%
12-8 12.8% 96.5% 6.3% 90.2% 7.3 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.1 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.5 96.3%
11-9 12.2% 87.4% 2.9% 84.5% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.1 2.4 2.1 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.5 87.0%
10-10 11.0% 67.0% 1.8% 65.2% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.5 1.6 0.9 0.1 3.6 66.4%
9-11 8.8% 31.1% 1.0% 30.1% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.0 6.1 30.4%
8-12 6.7% 8.9% 0.5% 8.4% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 6.1 8.4%
7-13 4.4% 2.1% 0.5% 1.6% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.3 1.6%
6-14 2.8% 0.7% 0.4% 0.4% 12.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 0.4%
5-15 1.6% 1.6
4-16 0.8% 0.8
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 72.3% 7.2% 65.1% 6.4 2.2 3.9 6.7 6.9 8.6 9.8 9.5 8.2 5.5 4.2 4.3 2.3 0.2 0.0 27.7 70.1%