Big South
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
178 Radford 25.8%   16   12 - 9 8 - 2 17 - 12 13 - 5 -0.3      -1.1 213 +0.9 142 63.7 300 -0.4 179 +3.5 2
181 Longwood 25.1%   13 - 8 7 - 3 18 - 11 12 - 6 -0.3      -1.0 208 +0.7 149 65.7 259 -1.5 202 +0.1 3
189 UNC Asheville 19.2%   15 - 6 9 - 1 20 - 9 14 - 4 -1.1      -1.0 206 -0.1 178 69.0 155 +3.5 120 +7.8 1
196 Gardner-Webb 17.7%   9 - 11 6 - 4 14 - 14 11 - 7 -1.3      -4.1 302 +2.7 97 65.8 255 -3.6 234 -2.7 4
247 Winthrop 4.5%   8 - 13 5 - 5 12 - 17 9 - 9 -4.5      +1.1 143 -5.5 324 67.6 199 -5.3 263 -4.9 5
257 Campbell 3.8%   7 - 13 4 - 6 11 - 17 8 - 10 -5.0      -2.4 249 -2.7 254 61.7 333 -6.2 281 -6.2 7
278 Charleston Southern 2.0%   6 - 13 4 - 6 10 - 17 8 - 10 -6.0      +2.4 106 -8.4 360 65.5 265 -7.6 296 -6.4 8
298 South Carolina Upstate 0.9%   7 - 12 4 - 6 10 - 17 7 - 11 -7.7      -5.8 330 -1.9 235 69.8 129 -5.2 261 -6.2 6
302 High Point 0.7%   8 - 12 2 - 8 11 - 17 5 - 13 -7.7      -3.7 287 -4.0 295 79.0 11 -6.2 280 -12.1 9
328 Presbyterian 0.2%   3 - 18 1 - 9 5 - 24 3 - 15 -9.9      -5.1 319 -4.8 314 61.9 328 -14.7 351 -16.2 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Radford 1.9 40.4 36.5 17.1 5.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
Longwood 2.6 18.0 28.7 35.6 14.6 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
UNC Asheville 1.5 66.5 23.1 8.3 1.9 0.2
Gardner-Webb 3.6 4.2 12.4 25.3 41.6 11.4 3.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
Winthrop 5.3 0.2 1.4 5.4 18.2 36.1 21.6 11.5 4.8 0.9 0.0
Campbell 6.1 0.2 1.9 9.0 23.8 28.3 21.1 12.6 3.0 0.2
Charleston Southern 6.4 0.0 0.3 1.2 7.5 20.1 24.2 24.1 17.2 4.9 0.5
South Carolina Upstate 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.8 4.3 13.1 20.2 24.8 26.9 9.1 0.8
High Point 8.5 0.1 1.7 4.5 10.1 20.1 49.5 14.0
Presbyterian 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.5 5.7 24.3 68.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Radford 13 - 5 0.1 0.5 2.7 8.6 18.2 26.8 25.3 14.1 3.8
Longwood 12 - 6 0.0 0.4 2.4 8.8 18.8 26.6 24.9 14.3 3.7
UNC Asheville 14 - 4 0.0 0.8 3.4 10.2 20.9 27.3 23.7 11.3 2.4
Gardner-Webb 11 - 7 0.1 1.0 4.3 12.4 22.3 27.7 21.0 9.4 1.8
Winthrop 9 - 9 0.6 4.1 12.9 24.8 26.7 19.7 8.5 2.4 0.3
Campbell 8 - 10 0.4 3.2 11.5 22.9 28.6 21.1 9.3 2.6 0.2
Charleston Southern 8 - 10 1.0 6.3 15.5 24.8 25.0 17.0 7.9 2.1 0.4
South Carolina Upstate 7 - 11 2.9 11.4 21.6 26.2 21.0 11.3 4.5 1.0 0.1
High Point 5 - 13 2.7 11.2 23.0 27.0 20.4 11.2 3.7 0.8 0.1
Presbyterian 3 - 15 6.5 20.5 29.1 24.9 13.1 4.8 1.1 0.2




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Radford 40.4% 21.7 14.8 3.5 0.3 0.0
Longwood 18.0% 6.8 7.8 3.1 0.3 0.0
UNC Asheville 66.5% 45.7 16.9 3.6 0.3 0.0
Gardner-Webb 4.2% 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0
Winthrop 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Campbell
Charleston Southern 0.0% 0.0 0.0
South Carolina Upstate 0.0% 0.0
High Point
Presbyterian


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Radford 25.8% 25.8% 0.0% 16   0.0 0.6 6.0 13.8 5.4 74.2 0.0%
Longwood 25.1% 25.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 4.8 12.7 7.2 74.9 0.0%
UNC Asheville 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 0.2 2.2 9.1 7.0 0.7 80.8 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 17.7% 17.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 5.3 11.7 82.3 0.0%
Winthrop 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.1 4.4 95.5 0.0%
Campbell 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 3.8 96.2 0.0%
Charleston Southern 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 2.0 98.0 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.2 0.0%
High Point 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Presbyterian 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Radford 25.8% 1.3% 25.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Longwood 25.1% 1.6% 24.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UNC Asheville 19.2% 0.0% 19.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Gardner-Webb 17.7% 7.6% 14.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Winthrop 4.5% 4.1% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 3.8% 3.6% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Charleston Southern 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.9% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
High Point 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Presbyterian 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 90.2% 0.9 9.8 90.2
2nd Round 4.0% 0.0 96.0 4.0
Sweet Sixteen 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.4
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0