Gardner-Webb
Big South
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.2#172
Expected Predictive Rating-3.8#236
Pace68.2#196
Improvement+0.0#103

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#302
First Shot-4.0#303
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#190
Layup/Dunks+3.1#77
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#244
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#327
Freethrows-0.9#233
Improvement-0.2#281

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#71
First Shot+2.6#98
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#88
Layups/Dunks+4.4#43
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#332
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#83
Freethrows-1.9#296
Improvement+0.3#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.0% 23.4% 15.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 71.2% 81.3% 58.7%
.500 or above in Conference 86.6% 89.8% 82.8%
Conference Champion 25.0% 29.3% 19.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
First Four3.8% 2.7% 5.1%
First Round18.4% 22.3% 13.7%
Second Round1.1% 1.5% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 55.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 3
Quad 33 - 63 - 9
Quad 412 - 415 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 72   @ Colorado St. L 63-65 16%     0 - 1 +8.6 -3.1 +11.7
  Nov 10, 2022 168   @ Stephen F. Austin L 71-86 38%     0 - 2 -12.1 +1.7 -14.0
  Nov 15, 2022 22   @ North Carolina L 66-72 6%     0 - 3 +11.2 -1.6 +12.9
  Nov 18, 2022 162   @ Wofford L 58-60 37%     0 - 4 +1.4 -13.8 +15.0
  Nov 19, 2022 274   N.C. A&T W 66-64 70%     1 - 4 -3.7 -7.1 +3.6
  Nov 26, 2022 269   @ NC Central L 53-58 59%     1 - 5 -7.5 -19.0 +11.3
  Nov 30, 2022 284   @ Western Carolina W 71-55 62%     2 - 5 +12.6 +4.4 +10.6
  Dec 03, 2022 149   Chattanooga W 65-63 55%    
  Dec 10, 2022 147   @ Old Dominion L 60-65 33%    
  Dec 17, 2022 269   NC Central W 69-61 78%    
  Dec 29, 2022 306   Charleston Southern W 75-64 84%    
  Dec 31, 2022 201   @ High Point L 68-69 44%    
  Jan 04, 2023 195   @ Campbell L 61-63 44%    
  Jan 07, 2023 208   Radford W 66-61 67%    
  Jan 11, 2023 322   @ Presbyterian W 65-58 74%    
  Jan 14, 2023 199   UNC Asheville W 71-67 66%    
  Jan 18, 2023 184   @ Longwood L 64-66 41%    
  Jan 21, 2023 209   @ Winthrop L 70-71 47%    
  Jan 25, 2023 349   South Carolina Upstate W 77-61 92%    
  Jan 28, 2023 201   High Point W 71-66 66%    
  Feb 01, 2023 306   @ Charleston Southern W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 04, 2023 322   Presbyterian W 68-55 88%    
  Feb 08, 2023 208   @ Radford L 63-64 46%    
  Feb 11, 2023 195   Campbell W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 15, 2023 209   Winthrop W 73-68 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 199   @ UNC Asheville L 68-70 45%    
  Feb 22, 2023 184   Longwood W 67-63 62%    
  Feb 25, 2023 349   @ South Carolina Upstate W 74-64 81%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 11 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.3 4.6 7.2 6.5 3.6 1.4 0.3 25.0 1st
2nd 0.1 1.6 6.2 6.8 3.1 0.7 0.1 18.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.4 6.0 6.1 1.7 0.1 0.0 15.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.2 4.9 5.3 1.2 0.1 12.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 4.0 4.5 1.2 0.1 10.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.4 0.9 0.1 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.9 2.1 0.7 0.0 5.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.6 6.1 9.4 11.9 14.3 14.8 13.2 10.5 7.2 3.7 1.4 0.3 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.4    1.4 0.0
16-2 98.4% 3.6    3.4 0.2
15-3 90.6% 6.5    5.2 1.3 0.0
14-4 68.8% 7.2    4.3 2.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 34.7% 4.6    1.5 2.0 0.9 0.1 0.0
12-6 8.9% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 25.0% 25.0 16.2 6.5 1.9 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 65.5% 62.8% 2.8% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 7.4%
17-1 1.4% 57.6% 57.6% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-2 3.7% 48.0% 48.0% 13.9 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 1.9
15-3 7.2% 39.0% 39.0% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.9 0.1 4.4
14-4 10.5% 33.8% 33.8% 14.6 0.2 1.2 1.8 0.3 6.9
13-5 13.2% 26.1% 26.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 1.9 0.8 9.7
12-6 14.8% 19.1% 19.1% 15.4 0.0 0.2 1.4 1.3 12.0
11-7 14.3% 14.5% 14.5% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.5 12.2
10-8 11.9% 10.8% 10.8% 15.9 0.1 1.2 10.6
9-9 9.4% 8.0% 8.0% 16.0 0.0 0.7 8.6
8-10 6.1% 4.7% 4.7% 16.0 0.3 5.8
7-11 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.1 3.5
6-12 2.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.1 2.0
5-13 1.0% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-14 0.4% 0.4
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.7 7.1 6.6 80.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 78.6% 12.1 19.6 33.9 25.0