Winthrop
Big South
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.3#209
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#186
Pace70.7#131
Improvement-0.3#259

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#105
First Shot+3.6#76
After Offensive Rebound-1.4#274
Layup/Dunks-2.7#281
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#48
Freethrows+4.5#13
Improvement+0.0#117

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#299
First Shot-2.4#251
After Offensive Rebounds-2.0#299
Layups/Dunks-1.3#245
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.4#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#332
Freethrows+2.1#69
Improvement-0.3#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.7% 12.4% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.4
.500 or above 46.9% 55.8% 29.0%
.500 or above in Conference 72.2% 76.5% 63.7%
Conference Champion 13.7% 16.0% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.2% 3.2%
First Four2.7% 2.5% 2.9%
First Round9.5% 11.3% 5.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coastal Carolina (Home) - 66.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 53 - 11
Quad 411 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 43   @ Penn St. L 68-93 8%     0 - 1 -11.9 +1.1 -12.9
  Nov 12, 2022 127   Middle Tennessee W 76-68 42%     1 - 1 +7.9 -0.4 +7.7
  Nov 15, 2022 29   @ Auburn L 65-89 6%     1 - 2 -8.1 +8.3 -17.8
  Nov 19, 2022 200   @ Mercer L 68-77 36%     1 - 3 -7.7 -0.4 -8.0
  Nov 22, 2022 109   Southern Miss L 52-77 27%     1 - 4 -20.9 -15.1 -7.1
  Nov 23, 2022 263   Eastern Michigan W 101-87 61%     2 - 4 +8.8 +14.2 -6.7
  Dec 03, 2022 240   Coastal Carolina W 76-71 67%    
  Dec 06, 2022 347   South Carolina St. W 86-72 90%    
  Dec 10, 2022 86   @ Furman L 71-82 14%    
  Dec 17, 2022 62   @ LSU L 67-81 11%    
  Dec 21, 2022 130   @ Duquesne L 72-80 23%    
  Dec 29, 2022 349   @ South Carolina Upstate W 81-73 76%    
  Dec 31, 2022 199   UNC Asheville W 78-76 59%    
  Jan 04, 2023 322   Presbyterian W 75-64 84%    
  Jan 07, 2023 184   @ Longwood L 71-76 34%    
  Jan 11, 2023 208   Radford W 73-70 60%    
  Jan 14, 2023 195   @ Campbell L 68-72 37%    
  Jan 18, 2023 201   @ High Point L 76-80 38%    
  Jan 21, 2023 172   Gardner-Webb W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 25, 2023 306   Charleston Southern W 83-74 79%    
  Jan 28, 2023 322   @ Presbyterian W 72-67 67%    
  Feb 01, 2023 184   Longwood W 74-73 55%    
  Feb 04, 2023 208   @ Radford L 70-73 39%    
  Feb 08, 2023 199   @ UNC Asheville L 75-79 37%    
  Feb 11, 2023 349   South Carolina Upstate W 84-70 89%    
  Feb 15, 2023 172   @ Gardner-Webb L 68-73 33%    
  Feb 18, 2023 306   @ Charleston Southern W 80-77 60%    
  Feb 22, 2023 195   Campbell W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 25, 2023 201   High Point W 79-77 59%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 10 - 8





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 3.2 4.2 3.1 1.6 0.6 0.1 13.7 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 4.6 4.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 13.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.4 5.0 1.2 0.1 13.3 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 5.5 5.3 1.1 0.1 13.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.3 5.1 5.3 1.1 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.6 4.8 1.2 0.1 12.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.2 3.8 1.0 0.1 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.9 7.9 10.3 12.5 13.7 13.4 11.6 9.3 6.2 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
16-2 99.1% 1.6    1.5 0.1
15-3 91.0% 3.1    2.5 0.6 0.0
14-4 68.5% 4.2    2.5 1.5 0.2 0.0
13-5 34.3% 3.2    1.0 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 7.7% 0.9    0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.7% 13.7 8.1 4.1 1.2 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 44.2% 36.5% 7.7% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12.1%
17-1 0.6% 43.2% 43.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3
16-2 1.6% 39.9% 39.9% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0
15-3 3.4% 32.3% 32.3% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.0 2.3
14-4 6.2% 25.6% 25.6% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 4.6
13-5 9.3% 20.3% 20.3% 14.9 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.4 7.4
12-6 11.6% 14.0% 14.0% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 10.0
11-7 13.4% 10.7% 10.7% 15.6 0.0 0.5 0.9 11.9
10-8 13.7% 6.5% 6.5% 15.9 0.1 0.8 12.8
9-9 12.5% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 11.9
8-10 10.3% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.4 9.9
7-11 7.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 7.8
6-12 4.9% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 4.8
5-13 2.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.4
3-15 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.2 3.7 4.0 89.3 0.0%