Longwood
Big South
2021-22 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.3#181
Expected Predictive Rating-1.5#202
Pace65.7#259
Improvement-0.5#253

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#208
First Shot-1.1#220
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#172
Layup/Dunks-2.7#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#202
Freethrows+1.5#72
Improvement-1.1#327

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#149
First Shot-0.7#197
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#63
Layups/Dunks+0.6#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#68
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#296
Freethrows+0.2#168
Improvement+0.5#102
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.1% 27.5% 22.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.2
.500 or above 99.5% 100.0% 99.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 100.0% 99.0%
Conference Champion 18.0% 25.5% 8.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.6% 1.1% 2.3%
First Round24.5% 27.2% 21.2%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Winthrop (Away) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 31 - 51 - 7
Quad 417 - 418 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 4   @ Alabama L 54-75 4%     0 - 1 -0.5 -13.5 +15.2
  Nov 11, 2022 126   @ George Mason L 69-83 30%     0 - 2 -8.9 +0.4 -9.5
  Nov 18, 2022 335   VMI W 90-58 88%     1 - 2 +18.9 +11.0 +8.7
  Nov 19, 2022 306   Fairleigh Dickinson W 99-83 83%     2 - 2 +5.3 +19.3 -13.6
  Nov 20, 2022 237   SIU Edwardsville L 56-61 73%     2 - 3 -11.6 -16.9 +5.2
  Nov 28, 2022 215   @ San Diego L 68-71 47%     2 - 4 -2.6 -8.5 +5.9
  Dec 03, 2022 356   @ Delaware St. W 75-49 87%     3 - 4 +13.5 +1.6 +14.0
  Dec 10, 2022 109   @ Wichita St. L 63-81 26%     3 - 5 -11.7 -2.7 -9.4
  Dec 13, 2022 349   @ St. Francis Brooklyn W 63-57 81%     4 - 5 -3.8 -10.2 +6.8
  Dec 17, 2022 296   @ The Citadel W 75-70 67%     5 - 5 +0.2 +7.1 -6.5
  Dec 20, 2022 354   South Carolina St. W 104-77 93%     6 - 5 +10.4 +17.0 -7.7
  Dec 29, 2022 302   High Point W 87-73 83%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +3.6 +6.5 -3.3
  Dec 31, 2022 257   @ Campbell W 67-42 58%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +22.6 -0.3 +25.5
  Jan 04, 2023 278   @ Charleston Southern W 79-74 61%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +1.7 +4.3 -2.3
  Jan 07, 2023 247   Winthrop W 85-71 74%     10 - 5 4 - 0 +6.8 +4.7 +2.0
  Jan 12, 2023 189   @ UNC Asheville L 46-54 43%     10 - 6 4 - 1 -6.4 -23.3 +16.4
  Jan 14, 2023 298   South Carolina Upstate W 72-65 83%     11 - 6 5 - 1 -3.3 -5.5 +2.0
  Jan 18, 2023 196   Gardner-Webb W 64-59 64%     12 - 6 6 - 1 +1.0 -3.0 +4.3
  Jan 21, 2023 328   @ Presbyterian W 58-56 75%     13 - 6 7 - 1 -5.2 -7.7 +2.8
  Jan 26, 2023 178   @ Radford L 59-63 40%     13 - 7 7 - 2 -1.6 -1.0 -1.3
  Jan 28, 2023 278   Charleston Southern L 63-75 79%     13 - 8 7 - 3 -20.7 -12.4 -9.6
  Feb 01, 2023 247   @ Winthrop W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 04, 2023 257   Campbell W 68-61 77%    
  Feb 08, 2023 328   Presbyterian W 70-58 88%    
  Feb 11, 2023 302   @ High Point W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 15, 2023 298   @ South Carolina Upstate W 69-64 66%    
  Feb 18, 2023 178   Radford W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 22, 2023 196   @ Gardner-Webb L 62-64 43%    
  Feb 25, 2023 189   UNC Asheville W 69-66 64%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big South Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.6 5.0 8.8 3.6 18.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 8.1 14.1 5.2 0.2 28.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.9 11.1 16.4 5.8 0.3 35.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.6 6.6 1.4 0.0 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.2 0.1 2.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.4 8.8 18.8 26.6 24.9 14.3 3.7 Total



Big South Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 95.1% 3.6    2.5 1.0 0.0
14-4 61.7% 8.8    3.5 4.3 1.0
13-5 20.0% 5.0    0.8 2.3 1.7 0.2
12-6 2.2% 0.6    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.0% 18.0 6.8 7.8 3.1 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 3.7% 41.4% 41.4% 14.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.2
14-4 14.3% 34.9% 34.9% 14.6 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.7 0.3 9.3
13-5 24.9% 29.0% 29.0% 15.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 4.5 1.3 17.7
12-6 26.6% 23.2% 23.2% 15.3 0.0 0.6 3.2 2.3 20.4
11-7 18.8% 19.1% 19.1% 15.5 0.1 1.5 2.0 15.2
10-8 8.8% 15.3% 15.3% 15.7 0.0 0.4 0.9 7.5
9-9 2.4% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 0.0 0.2 2.1
8-10 0.4% 10.4% 10.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4
7-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.1% 25.1% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.5 4.8 12.7 7.2 74.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.7% 41.4% 14.2 0.1 6.6 21.6 12.9 0.1