Preseason Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 North Carolina 90.3%   1   0 - 0 0 - 0 23 - 6 15 - 5 +18.9      +11.1 3 +7.7 17 74.4 43 0.0 1 0.0 1
7 Duke 83.7%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 7 14 - 6 +17.6      +11.8 2 +5.8 43 68.7 160 0.0 1 0.0 1
20 Virginia 65.9%   6   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 8 +14.2      +4.8 60 +9.3 6 54.0 362 0.0 1 0.0 1
32 Miami (FL) 55.0%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 9 +12.2      +7.6 23 +4.7 62 69.1 141 0.0 1 0.0 1
34 Virginia Tech 51.4%   9   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 11 - 9 +12.1      +6.4 33 +5.7 44 60.5 347 0.0 1 0.0 1
40 Notre Dame 48.4%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +11.3      +7.6 21 +3.7 83 64.7 272 0.0 1 0.0 1
42 Florida St. 45.5%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 10 +10.9      +5.7 39 +5.2 51 69.7 123 0.0 1 0.0 1
52 Syracuse 40.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 10 +10.0      +7.7 19 +2.3 112 69.0 148 0.0 1 0.0 1
65 Clemson 32.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +8.8      +4.3 67 +4.5 66 66.4 229 0.0 1 0.0 1
67 Wake Forest 28.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 9 - 11 +8.5      +5.7 41 +2.8 102 75.4 29 0.0 1 0.0 1
69 North Carolina St. 27.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 12 +8.3      +6.1 37 +2.1 118 68.1 184 0.0 1 0.0 1
73 Louisville 28.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 9 - 11 +8.2      +3.3 87 +4.9 57 68.3 168 0.0 1 0.0 1
86 Boston College 18.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 13 +6.8      +3.2 90 +3.6 85 64.0 300 0.0 1 0.0 1
97 Georgia Tech 15.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 7 - 13 +5.9      +1.8 132 +4.1 77 70.1 114 0.0 1 0.0 1
109 Pittsburgh 9.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 17 6 - 14 +4.4      +1.6 139 +2.8 104 62.2 336 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
North Carolina 3.1 36.4 19.1 12.9 8.8 6.3 4.6 3.6 2.6 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.1
Duke 3.7 27.8 18.4 13.3 10.1 7.5 6.0 4.4 3.5 2.8 2.0 1.5 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.2
Virginia 5.4 13.3 12.7 11.9 10.3 9.2 8.1 7.2 6.1 5.3 4.5 3.5 3.2 2.2 1.6 1.0
Miami (FL) 6.4 7.9 9.8 9.7 9.6 9.2 8.8 8.0 7.1 6.7 5.7 5.1 4.3 3.7 2.7 1.7
Virginia Tech 6.8 7.5 8.7 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.3 7.9 7.5 7.1 6.5 5.6 4.9 4.3 3.2 2.1
Notre Dame 6.9 6.3 7.9 8.8 8.9 8.9 8.6 8.3 7.4 7.0 6.5 5.9 5.3 4.4 3.6 2.3
Florida St. 7.2 5.7 7.6 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.5 8.2 7.8 7.6 6.8 6.2 5.5 4.7 3.8 2.8
Syracuse 7.6 4.9 6.3 7.3 7.5 8.0 7.9 8.2 8.0 7.6 7.1 6.9 6.3 5.6 4.8 3.6
Clemson 8.3 3.3 4.9 5.9 6.5 7.4 7.6 8.0 7.9 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.3 6.9 6.1 5.4
Wake Forest 9.0 2.6 3.4 4.7 5.3 5.9 6.7 7.0 7.5 7.9 8.3 8.6 8.5 8.7 8.1 6.7
North Carolina St. 9.1 2.2 3.1 4.2 5.2 6.0 6.7 7.3 7.6 8.0 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.3 6.8
Louisville 8.8 2.6 3.9 4.9 5.8 6.4 6.8 7.3 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.3 8.3 7.6 7.5 6.6
Boston College 10.1 1.2 2.0 2.8 3.8 4.5 5.4 6.1 6.8 7.5 8.5 9.1 9.6 10.9 11.5 10.3
Georgia Tech 10.0 1.2 2.3 3.1 3.9 4.7 5.2 6.2 6.6 7.3 8.0 8.7 9.5 10.5 10.9 11.9
Pittsburgh 11.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.3 2.7 3.8 4.4 5.4 6.4 7.4 9.2 10.2 12.2 14.8 18.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
North Carolina 15 - 5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.8 5.0 6.7 8.6 10.5 11.8 12.5 12.5 10.9 7.6 3.4
Duke 14 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.5 3.8 5.0 6.4 8.4 9.6 10.9 11.6 11.4 10.6 8.3 5.4 2.2
Virginia 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.3 1.9 3.0 4.2 5.5 6.9 8.2 9.4 9.8 10.1 9.8 9.0 7.6 5.8 3.8 2.0 0.7
Miami (FL) 11 - 9 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.0 3.2 4.6 5.9 6.9 8.5 9.3 10.1 10.0 9.3 8.6 7.0 5.5 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.2
Virginia Tech 11 - 9 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.6 3.7 5.1 6.5 7.8 9.0 9.3 9.6 9.5 9.1 7.6 6.4 4.9 3.2 2.0 0.9 0.3
Notre Dame 11 - 9 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.7 3.9 5.3 6.8 8.2 8.9 9.6 9.9 9.6 8.7 7.8 6.1 4.3 2.9 1.7 0.7 0.2
Florida St. 10 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.8 2.9 4.3 5.9 7.1 8.4 9.3 10.0 9.6 9.1 8.2 7.1 5.5 4.1 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.1
Syracuse 10 - 10 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.7 5.2 6.6 7.8 8.8 9.4 9.9 9.5 8.5 7.5 6.2 4.9 3.4 2.2 1.4 0.5 0.1
Clemson 9 - 11 0.3 1.0 2.0 3.2 4.8 6.2 7.7 8.7 9.5 9.6 9.5 8.8 7.8 6.5 5.2 3.8 2.7 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
Wake Forest 9 - 11 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.6 6.0 7.8 8.9 9.9 9.9 9.4 8.9 7.7 6.7 5.6 4.1 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0
North Carolina St. 8 - 12 0.4 1.3 2.8 4.7 6.5 7.7 8.9 10.0 10.2 9.7 9.0 7.8 6.6 5.1 3.9 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.0
Louisville 9 - 11 0.4 1.4 2.4 3.8 5.9 7.2 8.4 9.5 9.9 9.8 9.3 8.1 6.8 5.7 4.3 3.0 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.0
Boston College 7 - 13 0.8 2.5 4.4 6.4 8.5 9.6 10.2 10.5 9.6 9.1 7.7 6.5 5.2 3.5 2.4 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgia Tech 7 - 13 0.9 2.7 4.5 6.7 8.3 9.4 10.3 10.0 9.3 8.8 7.6 6.3 5.0 3.7 2.7 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pittsburgh 6 - 14 1.6 4.5 7.0 9.6 10.6 11.4 10.8 10.1 8.9 7.3 5.9 4.3 3.0 2.1 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
North Carolina 36.4% 26.6 8.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Duke 27.8% 19.6 6.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Virginia 13.3% 8.4 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0
Miami (FL) 7.9% 4.6 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Tech 7.5% 4.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Notre Dame 6.3% 3.7 2.0 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Florida St. 5.7% 3.3 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Syracuse 4.9% 2.8 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Clemson 3.3% 1.8 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Wake Forest 2.6% 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
North Carolina St. 2.2% 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisville 2.6% 1.4 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Boston College 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Georgia Tech 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Pittsburgh 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
North Carolina 90.3% 19.9% 70.4% 1   24.8 17.5 11.6 9.1 6.9 5.6 4.4 3.5 2.8 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7 87.9%
Duke 83.7% 16.9% 66.8% 2   15.2 13.5 10.9 9.1 7.6 6.4 5.9 4.9 3.7 3.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 16.3 80.4%
Virginia 65.9% 9.7% 56.2% 6   6.2 6.8 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.4 6.2 5.8 4.8 4.1 3.5 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 34.1 62.2%
Miami (FL) 55.0% 7.3% 47.7% 9   3.2 3.9 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.2 4.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 45.0 51.5%
Virginia Tech 51.4% 7.5% 43.9% 9   2.8 3.6 4.3 4.7 4.8 5.2 5.3 5.6 5.0 4.9 3.5 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 48.6 47.5%
Notre Dame 48.4% 6.3% 42.0% 10   2.2 3.0 3.6 4.3 4.6 4.6 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.1 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 51.6 44.9%
Florida St. 45.5% 5.6% 39.9% 10   1.9 2.8 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.6 4.1 3.8 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 54.5 42.3%
Syracuse 40.6% 4.9% 35.7% 1.4 2.3 2.7 3.0 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.3 4.6 4.7 3.9 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 59.4 37.6%
Clemson 32.3% 4.2% 28.1% 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 67.7 29.3%
Wake Forest 28.9% 3.7% 25.2% 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.3 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 71.1 26.1%
North Carolina St. 27.1% 3.7% 23.4% 0.6 0.9 1.4 1.7 2.3 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 72.9 24.3%
Louisville 28.0% 3.6% 24.4% 0.6 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.0 0.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 72.0 25.3%
Boston College 18.4% 2.8% 15.6% 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.4 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.2 2.6 2.4 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 81.6 16.1%
Georgia Tech 15.1% 2.3% 12.8% 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.5 1.7 2.0 2.1 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 84.9 13.1%
Pittsburgh 9.6% 1.7% 7.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 90.4 8.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
North Carolina 90.3% 1.7% 89.5% 76.3% 52.4% 32.2% 19.1% 10.8% 6.1%
Duke 83.7% 2.4% 82.7% 67.4% 42.9% 25.2% 14.1% 7.7% 4.2%
Virginia 65.9% 3.6% 64.1% 46.2% 25.1% 12.8% 6.3% 3.0% 1.4%
Miami (FL) 55.0% 4.2% 53.0% 35.1% 16.9% 7.8% 3.5% 1.7% 0.7%
Virginia Tech 51.4% 3.9% 49.6% 32.9% 15.9% 7.4% 3.3% 1.5% 0.6%
Notre Dame 48.4% 4.3% 46.3% 29.7% 13.6% 6.1% 2.7% 1.2% 0.5%
Florida St. 45.5% 4.2% 43.5% 27.8% 12.8% 5.6% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4%
Syracuse 40.6% 4.4% 38.4% 23.3% 10.0% 4.3% 1.8% 0.7% 0.3%
Clemson 32.3% 3.8% 30.4% 17.7% 7.2% 3.1% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Wake Forest 28.9% 3.3% 27.3% 15.8% 6.5% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.2%
North Carolina St. 27.1% 3.6% 25.4% 14.3% 5.6% 2.4% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Louisville 28.0% 3.7% 26.2% 14.7% 5.8% 2.3% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1%
Boston College 18.4% 2.9% 17.0% 9.1% 3.3% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1%
Georgia Tech 15.1% 2.7% 13.9% 7.2% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 9.6% 1.8% 8.7% 4.2% 1.4% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 6.4 0.1 1.1 6.1 17.5 28.5 26.6 14.8 4.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 6.2 0.0 0.2 1.6 8.3 20.8 29.7 24.0 11.8 3.1 0.5 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 4.2 0.1 1.2 7.5 20.8 29.6 24.7 11.8 3.6 0.6 0.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 95.3% 2.2 4.7 21.8 35.5 25.9 9.8 2.1 0.3 0.0
Elite Eight 75.7% 1.1 24.3 43.9 25.3 5.8 0.7 0.1
Final Four 48.9% 0.6 51.1 40.2 8.2 0.5 0.0
Final Game 27.8% 0.3 72.2 26.1 1.7
Champion 15.0% 0.1 85.0 15.0