Preseason Rankings
Wake Forest
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#67
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.4#29
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+5.7#41
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+2.8#102
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.7% 0.8% 0.1%
Top 2 Seed 1.8% 2.0% 0.1%
Top 4 Seed 5.7% 6.2% 0.6%
Top 6 Seed 11.2% 12.3% 1.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 31.1% 8.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 26.1% 28.3% 6.7%
Average Seed 7.4 7.3 9.1
.500 or above 58.1% 61.7% 24.4%
.500 or above in Conference 39.1% 41.6% 16.2%
Conference Champion 2.6% 2.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 9.4% 24.1%
First Four3.3% 3.4% 1.9%
First Round27.3% 29.5% 7.3%
Second Round15.8% 17.2% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen6.5% 7.1% 0.9%
Elite Eight2.7% 2.9% 0.3%
Final Four1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.4% 0.4% 0.1%
National Champion0.2% 0.2% 0.0%

Next Game: Fairfield (Home) - 90.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 24 - 46 - 12
Quad 35 - 211 - 14
Quad 45 - 016 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 222   Fairfield W 78-64 90%    
  Nov 11, 2022 106   Georgia W 84-77 73%    
  Nov 15, 2022 156   Utah Valley W 79-68 83%    
  Nov 18, 2022 182   La Salle W 80-71 77%    
  Nov 23, 2022 356   South Carolina St. W 95-65 99%    
  Nov 26, 2022 328   Hampton W 89-67 97%    
  Nov 29, 2022 41   @ Wisconsin L 70-76 32%    
  Dec 02, 2022 65   @ Clemson L 73-76 39%    
  Dec 10, 2022 47   LSU L 76-78 43%    
  Dec 14, 2022 183   Appalachian St. W 77-65 84%    
  Dec 19, 2022 43   @ Rutgers L 69-74 33%    
  Dec 20, 2022 7   Duke L 76-82 31%    
  Dec 31, 2022 34   Virginia Tech L 71-72 49%    
  Jan 04, 2023 2   @ North Carolina L 75-88 14%    
  Jan 07, 2023 73   @ Louisville L 74-77 41%    
  Jan 11, 2023 42   Florida St. W 78-77 52%    
  Jan 14, 2023 86   @ Boston College L 73-74 46%    
  Jan 17, 2023 65   Clemson W 76-73 58%    
  Jan 21, 2023 20   Virginia L 63-66 41%    
  Jan 25, 2023 109   @ Pittsburgh W 72-71 53%    
  Jan 28, 2023 69   North Carolina St. W 79-76 60%    
  Jan 31, 2023 7   @ Duke L 73-85 17%    
  Feb 04, 2023 40   @ Notre Dame L 73-79 32%    
  Feb 07, 2023 2   North Carolina L 78-85 28%    
  Feb 11, 2023 97   Georgia Tech W 79-73 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 32   @ Miami (FL) L 74-81 30%    
  Feb 22, 2023 69   @ North Carolina St. L 76-79 41%    
  Feb 25, 2023 40   Notre Dame W 76-75 51%    
  Feb 28, 2023 86   Boston College W 76-71 64%    
  Mar 04, 2023 52   @ Syracuse L 77-81 36%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.0 3.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.0 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 5.9 5th
6th 0.2 1.4 3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 3.2 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.8 3.1 2.9 0.6 0.0 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.9 3.4 1.0 0.1 7.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.5 3.8 1.5 0.1 0.0 8.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.0 1.9 0.2 0.0 8.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0 8.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.4 1.9 3.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 8.7 13th
14th 0.1 0.7 2.2 2.8 1.9 0.4 0.0 8.1 14th
15th 0.4 1.2 2.0 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.0 6.7 15th
Total 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.6 6.0 7.8 8.9 9.9 9.9 9.4 8.9 7.7 6.7 5.6 4.1 2.7 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 91.9% 0.4    0.3 0.1
17-3 70.8% 0.7    0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
16-4 40.6% 0.7    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 13.5% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.6% 2.6 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 22.4% 77.6% 1.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 16.1% 83.9% 1.5 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.5% 100.0% 18.5% 81.5% 2.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.0% 100.0% 16.7% 83.3% 2.4 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 1.7% 100.0% 13.6% 86.4% 3.5 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 2.7% 99.4% 11.2% 88.2% 4.6 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.4%
14-6 4.1% 96.3% 8.9% 87.3% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 95.9%
13-7 5.6% 89.4% 7.2% 82.1% 7.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.6 88.6%
12-8 6.7% 74.3% 5.8% 68.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.7 72.7%
11-9 7.7% 54.2% 4.8% 49.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 51.9%
10-10 8.9% 31.4% 3.5% 27.9% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 28.9%
9-11 9.4% 11.4% 3.6% 7.8% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 8.1%
8-12 9.9% 3.5% 2.4% 1.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.5 1.2%
7-13 9.9% 1.7% 1.5% 0.2% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.7 0.2%
6-14 8.9% 1.3% 1.3% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 8.8
5-15 7.8% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 7.7
4-16 6.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.0
3-17 4.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.5
2-18 2.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 2.7
1-19 1.3% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 1.3
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 28.9% 3.7% 25.2% 7.4 0.7 1.1 1.8 2.1 2.6 3.0 3.2 3.5 3.2 3.3 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 71.1 26.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0