Preseason Rankings
North Carolina
Atlantic Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+18.9#2
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace74.4#43
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+11.1#3
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 7.4% 7.5% 0.9%
#1 Seed 24.8% 25.1% 3.4%
Top 2 Seed 42.3% 42.9% 7.9%
Top 4 Seed 63.0% 63.7% 19.8%
Top 6 Seed 75.4% 76.1% 31.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 90.3% 90.8% 58.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 87.9% 88.5% 55.9%
Average Seed 3.6 3.6 6.2
.500 or above 96.6% 97.0% 76.9%
.500 or above in Conference 93.4% 93.7% 74.3%
Conference Champion 36.4% 36.8% 9.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 2.2%
First Four1.7% 1.7% 4.7%
First Round89.5% 90.0% 56.7%
Second Round76.3% 77.0% 38.5%
Sweet Sixteen52.4% 52.9% 19.6%
Elite Eight32.2% 32.6% 9.5%
Final Four19.1% 19.3% 3.8%
Championship Game10.8% 11.0% 1.8%
National Champion6.1% 6.2% 0.6%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 98.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 33 - 3
Quad 1b3 - 16 - 5
Quad 26 - 112 - 6
Quad 36 - 018 - 6
Quad 44 - 023 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 179   UNC Wilmington W 86-64 98%    
  Nov 11, 2022 151   College of Charleston W 96-75 97%    
  Nov 15, 2022 237   Gardner-Webb W 86-61 99%    
  Nov 20, 2022 162   James Madison W 91-69 97%    
  Nov 24, 2022 154   Portland W 88-70 94%    
  Nov 30, 2022 13   @ Indiana W 76-75 52%    
  Dec 04, 2022 34   @ Virginia Tech W 73-69 62%    
  Dec 10, 2022 97   Georgia Tech W 84-68 91%    
  Dec 13, 2022 265   The Citadel W 95-68 99%    
  Dec 17, 2022 36   Ohio St. W 78-71 71%    
  Dec 21, 2022 15   Michigan W 78-74 63%    
  Dec 30, 2022 109   @ Pittsburgh W 77-66 82%    
  Jan 04, 2023 67   Wake Forest W 88-75 86%    
  Jan 07, 2023 40   Notre Dame W 81-70 80%    
  Jan 10, 2023 20   @ Virginia W 66-64 56%    
  Jan 14, 2023 73   @ Louisville W 79-71 73%    
  Jan 17, 2023 86   Boston College W 80-65 89%    
  Jan 21, 2023 69   North Carolina St. W 85-71 86%    
  Jan 24, 2023 52   @ Syracuse W 82-76 68%    
  Feb 01, 2023 109   Pittsburgh W 80-63 92%    
  Feb 04, 2023 7   @ Duke L 78-80 45%    
  Feb 07, 2023 67   @ Wake Forest W 85-78 72%    
  Feb 11, 2023 65   Clemson W 81-68 85%    
  Feb 13, 2023 32   Miami (FL) W 83-73 78%    
  Feb 19, 2023 69   @ North Carolina St. W 82-74 73%    
  Feb 22, 2023 40   @ Notre Dame W 78-73 64%    
  Feb 25, 2023 20   Virginia W 69-61 73%    
  Feb 27, 2023 42   @ Florida St. W 79-74 65%    
  Mar 04, 2023 7   Duke W 81-77 63%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Coast Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.8 8.6 9.9 7.5 3.4 36.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.3 5.3 6.2 3.8 1.0 0.0 19.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.7 4.0 1.5 0.2 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.5 2.7 0.7 0.1 8.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 6.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.6 1.9 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.4 0.0 2.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 1.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 15th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.6 3.8 5.0 6.7 8.6 10.5 11.8 12.5 12.5 10.9 7.6 3.4 Total



Atlantic Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.4    3.4
19-1 99.6% 7.5    7.1 0.4
18-2 90.9% 9.9    8.1 1.8 0.1
17-3 68.3% 8.6    5.4 2.8 0.4 0.0
16-4 38.1% 4.8    2.0 2.1 0.6 0.1
15-5 15.2% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 36.4% 36.4 26.6 8.0 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.4% 100.0% 46.4% 53.6% 1.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 100.0%
19-1 7.6% 100.0% 39.9% 60.1% 1.2 6.0 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 10.9% 100.0% 31.3% 68.7% 1.4 7.0 3.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 12.5% 100.0% 24.7% 75.3% 1.8 5.2 4.9 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 12.5% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2.5 2.6 4.3 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
15-5 11.8% 99.8% 18.0% 81.8% 3.5 0.8 2.3 3.3 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
14-6 10.5% 99.3% 13.9% 85.5% 4.6 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.5 2.2 1.4 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.2%
13-7 8.6% 96.9% 11.6% 85.3% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 96.5%
12-8 6.7% 89.9% 9.9% 80.1% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.7 88.8%
11-9 5.0% 75.6% 7.9% 67.7% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 73.5%
10-10 3.8% 54.5% 7.3% 47.2% 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7 50.9%
9-11 2.6% 24.6% 5.2% 19.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 20.5%
8-12 1.8% 10.4% 5.0% 5.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 5.7%
7-13 1.0% 4.4% 3.6% 0.8% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.8%
6-14 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.6
5-15 0.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-16 0.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 90.3% 19.9% 70.4% 3.6 24.8 17.5 11.6 9.1 6.9 5.6 4.4 3.5 2.8 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.7 87.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 1.1 89.5 10.5