Preseason Rankings
Arkansas
Southeastern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+16.6#11
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace75.4#28
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.6#22
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.0#8
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 3.7% 3.8% 0.3%
#1 Seed 14.1% 14.4% 1.5%
Top 2 Seed 26.5% 27.0% 3.6%
Top 4 Seed 45.6% 46.4% 9.7%
Top 6 Seed 59.9% 60.8% 18.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 80.9% 81.7% 41.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 77.9% 78.9% 39.1%
Average Seed 4.6 4.5 7.0
.500 or above 93.2% 93.8% 63.0%
.500 or above in Conference 82.2% 82.9% 50.9%
Conference Champion 19.2% 19.5% 4.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.1% 5.7%
First Four2.7% 2.7% 4.1%
First Round79.6% 80.5% 39.6%
Second Round63.3% 64.1% 24.9%
Sweet Sixteen39.2% 39.8% 10.4%
Elite Eight21.8% 22.2% 4.3%
Final Four11.7% 11.9% 1.5%
Championship Game6.1% 6.2% 0.4%
National Champion3.2% 3.3% 0.2%

Next Game: North Dakota St. (Home) - 97.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 25 - 110 - 7
Quad 36 - 116 - 8
Quad 45 - 021 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 216   North Dakota St. W 84-62 98%    
  Nov 11, 2022 202   Fordham W 80-59 97%    
  Nov 16, 2022 134   South Dakota St. W 89-72 93%    
  Nov 21, 2022 73   Louisville W 77-69 77%    
  Nov 28, 2022 235   Troy W 84-61 97%    
  Dec 03, 2022 210   San Jose St. W 83-62 96%    
  Dec 06, 2022 139   UNC Greensboro W 76-58 93%    
  Dec 10, 2022 33   Oklahoma W 74-69 64%    
  Dec 17, 2022 117   Bradley W 81-65 90%    
  Dec 21, 2022 211   UNC Asheville W 85-64 96%    
  Dec 28, 2022 47   @ LSU W 77-74 59%    
  Jan 04, 2023 70   Missouri W 78-67 82%    
  Jan 07, 2023 21   @ Auburn L 77-78 48%    
  Jan 11, 2023 22   Alabama W 85-79 67%    
  Jan 14, 2023 72   @ Vanderbilt W 76-71 67%    
  Jan 18, 2023 70   @ Missouri W 75-70 66%    
  Jan 21, 2023 58   Mississippi W 76-66 79%    
  Jan 24, 2023 47   LSU W 80-71 76%    
  Jan 28, 2023 4   @ Baylor L 73-78 35%    
  Jan 31, 2023 39   Texas A&M W 76-68 74%    
  Feb 04, 2023 87   @ South Carolina W 80-73 70%    
  Feb 07, 2023 3   @ Kentucky L 74-79 34%    
  Feb 11, 2023 64   Mississippi St. W 77-66 80%    
  Feb 15, 2023 39   @ Texas A&M W 73-71 56%    
  Feb 18, 2023 30   Florida W 76-69 71%    
  Feb 21, 2023 106   Georgia W 86-71 88%    
  Feb 25, 2023 22   @ Alabama L 81-82 50%    
  Feb 28, 2023 10   @ Tennessee L 71-74 39%    
  Mar 04, 2023 3   Kentucky W 77-76 53%    
Projected Record 21 - 8 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.8 2.7 5.4 5.3 3.6 1.3 19.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.3 5.5 3.4 0.9 0.1 15.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.2 4.2 5.0 2.2 0.3 0.0 13.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.8 4.4 1.6 0.2 10.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.1 1.4 0.2 9.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.5 1.5 0.2 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 3.1 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.1 0.7 2.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.4 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.0 2.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.7 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 1.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.2 4.5 6.1 7.9 9.4 10.9 11.4 11.9 10.5 9.1 6.2 3.7 1.3 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.3    1.3
17-1 98.6% 3.6    3.2 0.4
16-2 85.5% 5.3    4.0 1.3 0.1
15-3 59.4% 5.4    2.8 2.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
14-4 26.0% 2.7    0.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-5 6.6% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 19.2% 19.2 12.2 5.4 1.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.3% 100.0% 36.3% 63.7% 1.1 1.1 0.2 0.0 100.0%
17-1 3.7% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.3 2.8 0.8 0.1 0.0 100.0%
16-2 6.2% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 1.5 3.8 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 9.1% 100.0% 21.2% 78.8% 1.9 3.5 3.5 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 10.5% 99.9% 18.1% 81.9% 2.7 2.0 3.2 2.8 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9%
13-5 11.9% 99.7% 14.8% 85.0% 3.7 0.7 2.0 3.1 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
12-6 11.4% 99.0% 11.3% 87.6% 4.9 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.5 2.5 1.7 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.8%
11-7 10.9% 95.5% 9.6% 85.9% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 2.1 1.8 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.5 95.0%
10-8 9.4% 86.3% 8.5% 77.9% 7.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.1 1.3 85.1%
9-9 7.9% 67.3% 6.4% 60.9% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.6 65.1%
8-10 6.1% 37.7% 4.8% 32.9% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 34.6%
7-11 4.5% 14.7% 4.5% 10.2% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 10.7%
6-12 3.2% 4.6% 3.2% 1.4% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 1.4%
5-13 1.9% 1.8% 1.6% 0.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9 0.3%
4-14 1.1% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.1
3-15 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
2-16 0.2% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 16.1% 16.1% 16.0 0.0 0.0
Total 100% 80.9% 13.3% 67.6% 4.6 14.1 12.4 10.1 9.0 7.8 6.4 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.3 2.5 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 19.1 77.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.1