Preseason Rankings
Belmont
Missouri Valley
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#115
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.1#73
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+2.9#103
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#152
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.7% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.9% 18.4% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.0% 5.6% 0.7%
Average Seed 11.3 11.0 13.0
.500 or above 72.0% 81.7% 50.6%
.500 or above in Conference 72.4% 79.4% 57.1%
Conference Champion 14.2% 17.7% 6.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.2% 4.5%
First Four2.1% 2.5% 1.2%
First Round13.9% 17.2% 6.7%
Second Round4.0% 5.4% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio (Home) - 68.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 36 - 58 - 10
Quad 49 - 216 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 144   Ohio W 77-72 69%    
  Nov 11, 2022 96   @ Furman L 71-76 31%    
  Nov 14, 2022 225   @ Lipscomb W 80-77 62%    
  Nov 18, 2022 245   Tarleton St. W 71-64 74%    
  Nov 27, 2022 169   @ Georgia St. W 74-73 52%    
  Dec 01, 2022 212   Valparaiso W 76-68 76%    
  Dec 04, 2022 180   @ Illinois St. W 76-75 54%    
  Dec 10, 2022 137   Middle Tennessee W 76-71 65%    
  Dec 18, 2022 130   @ Chattanooga L 70-72 44%    
  Dec 21, 2022 172   Samford W 83-76 71%    
  Dec 28, 2022 117   Bradley W 75-72 60%    
  Jan 01, 2023 138   @ Southern Illinois L 66-67 46%    
  Jan 04, 2023 247   @ Illinois-Chicago W 78-74 64%    
  Jan 07, 2023 131   Missouri St. W 77-73 63%    
  Jan 10, 2023 212   @ Valparaiso W 73-71 58%    
  Jan 14, 2023 132   Northern Iowa W 76-72 64%    
  Jan 17, 2023 114   Murray St. W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 21, 2023 117   @ Bradley L 72-75 41%    
  Jan 25, 2023 313   @ Evansville W 74-64 79%    
  Jan 29, 2023 74   Drake L 73-75 45%    
  Feb 01, 2023 114   @ Murray St. L 71-74 41%    
  Feb 04, 2023 180   Illinois St. W 79-72 71%    
  Feb 08, 2023 131   @ Missouri St. L 74-76 44%    
  Feb 11, 2023 247   Illinois-Chicago W 81-71 79%    
  Feb 15, 2023 313   Evansville W 77-61 90%    
  Feb 19, 2023 74   @ Drake L 70-78 28%    
  Feb 22, 2023 161   Indiana St. W 79-73 69%    
  Feb 26, 2023 132   @ Northern Iowa L 73-75 45%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.3 3.6 3.0 1.5 0.5 14.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.5 4.5 3.1 1.1 0.2 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.1 4.0 1.8 0.4 0.0 12.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.3 3.8 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.1 3.1 0.9 0.1 10.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 9.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 2.1 0.4 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.7 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.5 2.4 3.6 5.0 6.2 7.7 8.9 9.5 9.8 10.2 9.3 8.1 6.7 4.8 3.2 1.5 0.5 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.4 0.1
18-2 93.4% 3.0    2.6 0.4 0.0
17-3 76.1% 3.6    2.6 1.0 0.1 0.0
16-4 48.3% 3.3    1.8 1.2 0.3 0.0
15-5 21.5% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
14-6 5.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.2% 14.2 9.4 3.6 0.9 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 93.2% 52.5% 40.7% 4.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.6%
19-1 1.5% 84.8% 43.7% 41.1% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 73.0%
18-2 3.2% 68.3% 35.5% 32.9% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 50.9%
17-3 4.8% 45.5% 27.9% 17.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.6 24.4%
16-4 6.7% 32.0% 23.7% 8.3% 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 4.6 10.9%
15-5 8.1% 20.7% 18.1% 2.6% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 6.5 3.2%
14-6 9.3% 15.9% 15.2% 0.7% 12.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.8 0.8%
13-7 10.2% 10.8% 10.7% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 9.1 0.1%
12-8 9.8% 8.5% 8.4% 0.1% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.9 0.1%
11-9 9.5% 6.6% 6.6% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 8.9
10-10 8.9% 5.0% 5.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.4
9-11 7.7% 3.4% 3.4% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 7.5
8-12 6.2% 2.0% 2.0% 15.9 0.0 0.1 6.1
7-13 5.0% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.1 4.9
6-14 3.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.5
5-15 2.4% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.4
4-16 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-17 0.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.8
2-18 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 14.9% 11.3% 3.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.2 2.9 3.5 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.7 85.1 4.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 95.9% 3.0 11.4 21.9 29.2 23.8 8.4 1.4
Lose Out 0.0%