Preseason Rankings
Charlotte
Conference USA
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#164
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.0#265
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.0#158
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.8#197
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 5.7% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 14.8
.500 or above 48.4% 51.3% 16.0%
.500 or above in Conference 41.8% 43.9% 17.5%
Conference Champion 3.8% 4.1% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 12.5% 11.1% 28.7%
First Four1.0% 1.0% 0.8%
First Round4.9% 5.2% 1.2%
Second Round1.0% 1.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Coppin St. (Home) - 91.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 34 - 66 - 12
Quad 49 - 214 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 336   Coppin St. W 82-67 92%    
  Nov 14, 2022 361   Maryland Eastern Shore W 79-55 99%    
  Nov 17, 2022 77   Boise St. L 62-70 25%    
  Nov 23, 2022 229   @ Detroit Mercy W 71-70 50%    
  Nov 26, 2022 310   Presbyterian W 72-60 85%    
  Nov 29, 2022 81   @ Davidson L 64-74 20%    
  Dec 02, 2022 183   Appalachian St. W 68-64 62%    
  Dec 10, 2022 229   Detroit Mercy W 73-67 69%    
  Dec 17, 2022 260   @ Monmouth W 69-67 58%    
  Dec 22, 2022 60   @ UAB L 67-79 17%    
  Dec 29, 2022 137   Middle Tennessee W 70-69 54%    
  Dec 31, 2022 121   Louisiana Tech L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 05, 2023 224   @ Florida International L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 07, 2023 125   @ Florida Atlantic L 68-74 32%    
  Jan 14, 2023 249   Texas San Antonio W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 16, 2023 148   UTEP W 69-67 56%    
  Jan 19, 2023 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-72 35%    
  Jan 21, 2023 107   @ Western Kentucky L 69-76 28%    
  Jan 26, 2023 206   @ Rice L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 02, 2023 224   Florida International W 73-67 68%    
  Feb 04, 2023 125   Florida Atlantic W 71-70 50%    
  Feb 09, 2023 148   @ UTEP L 66-70 38%    
  Feb 11, 2023 79   @ North Texas L 55-65 21%    
  Feb 16, 2023 107   Western Kentucky L 72-73 46%    
  Feb 18, 2023 121   @ Louisiana Tech L 68-74 31%    
  Feb 23, 2023 79   North Texas L 58-62 36%    
  Feb 25, 2023 206   Rice W 75-70 64%    
  Mar 02, 2023 249   @ Texas San Antonio W 72-71 54%    
  Mar 04, 2023 60   UAB L 70-76 32%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 3.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 1.7 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 2.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 7.5 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 2.5 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 3.3 3.9 1.7 0.2 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 3.8 1.4 0.2 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 4.2 3.5 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 2.3 4.3 3.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 11.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 4.0 2.6 0.6 0.0 11.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.0 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.0 10.2 10th
11th 0.4 1.2 2.0 2.4 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.4 11th
Total 0.4 1.3 2.4 4.1 5.7 7.4 8.2 9.3 9.7 9.7 9.2 8.5 7.1 5.7 4.3 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 92.0% 0.5    0.5 0.1 0.0
17-3 80.6% 0.9    0.7 0.2 0.0
16-4 49.9% 1.0    0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
15-5 24.3% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 91.5% 47.9% 43.6% 5.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 83.6%
19-1 0.2% 84.4% 40.0% 44.4% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 73.9%
18-2 0.6% 66.3% 26.5% 39.8% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 54.1%
17-3 1.1% 38.6% 21.4% 17.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 21.9%
16-4 2.0% 30.3% 21.5% 8.8% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4 11.2%
15-5 3.0% 18.5% 16.0% 2.5% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 2.4 3.0%
14-6 4.3% 13.6% 13.1% 0.5% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.7 0.5%
13-7 5.7% 8.9% 8.8% 0.1% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.2 0.1%
12-8 7.1% 6.4% 6.3% 0.0% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 6.6 0.0%
11-9 8.5% 5.3% 5.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.1
10-10 9.2% 4.1% 4.1% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 8.8
9-11 9.7% 2.8% 2.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 9.4
8-12 9.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 9.5
7-13 9.3% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.2
6-14 8.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 8.1
5-15 7.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.3
4-16 5.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 5.6
3-17 4.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 4.1
2-18 2.4% 2.4
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 5.4% 4.6% 0.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.8 94.6 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 3.1 40.0 30.0 10.0 20.0
Lose Out 0.0%