Preseason Rankings
Chattanooga
Southern
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#130
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace62.9#322
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+1.6#140
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+1.2#139
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.7% 1.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.6% 24.1% 12.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.9% 3.8% 0.5%
Average Seed 12.4 11.8 13.4
.500 or above 74.0% 87.8% 62.6%
.500 or above in Conference 77.5% 87.0% 69.8%
Conference Champion 20.7% 28.7% 14.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.3% 4.3%
First Four1.6% 1.8% 1.5%
First Round16.9% 23.2% 11.7%
Second Round3.6% 5.9% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen1.0% 1.8% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Away) - 45.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 56 - 9
Quad 410 - 217 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 151   @ College of Charleston L 76-77 45%    
  Nov 15, 2022 58   @ Mississippi L 61-71 19%    
  Nov 23, 2022 225   Lipscomb W 77-68 77%    
  Nov 26, 2022 114   Murray St. W 68-66 57%    
  Nov 30, 2022 305   @ Tennessee Tech W 76-68 75%    
  Dec 03, 2022 237   @ Gardner-Webb W 67-64 60%    
  Dec 06, 2022 306   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-60 88%    
  Dec 15, 2022 137   @ Middle Tennessee L 67-69 42%    
  Dec 18, 2022 115   Belmont W 72-70 56%    
  Dec 21, 2022 106   @ Georgia L 70-75 34%    
  Dec 29, 2022 265   @ The Citadel W 76-71 66%    
  Dec 31, 2022 198   @ Mercer W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 04, 2023 139   @ UNC Greensboro L 61-63 44%    
  Jan 07, 2023 272   VMI W 78-66 82%    
  Jan 11, 2023 268   Western Carolina W 77-66 82%    
  Jan 14, 2023 172   @ Samford L 73-74 50%    
  Jan 18, 2023 96   Furman L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 21, 2023 189   East Tennessee St. W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 25, 2023 181   Wofford W 69-63 69%    
  Jan 28, 2023 189   @ East Tennessee St. W 68-67 51%    
  Feb 01, 2023 96   @ Furman L 65-71 31%    
  Feb 04, 2023 268   @ Western Carolina W 74-69 67%    
  Feb 08, 2023 265   The Citadel W 79-68 81%    
  Feb 11, 2023 198   Mercer W 70-63 71%    
  Feb 15, 2023 272   @ VMI W 75-69 67%    
  Feb 18, 2023 139   UNC Greensboro W 64-60 62%    
  Feb 22, 2023 172   Samford W 76-70 68%    
  Feb 25, 2023 181   @ Wofford W 66-65 50%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.8 3.9 5.6 4.9 3.0 1.0 20.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 5.7 4.9 2.2 0.4 18.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.7 5.5 2.9 0.6 0.0 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.5 4.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.4 2.4 0.5 0.0 8.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.5 1.6 0.2 0.0 6.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.7 1.0 0.2 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.7 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.0 5.5 7.1 8.4 9.9 11.1 11.2 10.6 9.4 7.8 5.3 3.0 1.0 Total



Southern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 1.0    1.0
17-1 100.0% 3.0    2.9 0.1
16-2 92.1% 4.9    4.1 0.7 0.0
15-3 71.9% 5.6    3.8 1.7 0.1
14-4 41.8% 3.9    2.0 1.5 0.4 0.0
13-5 17.4% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1
12-6 3.7% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 20.7% 20.7 14.4 5.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 1.0% 85.6% 62.0% 23.6% 7.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 62.1%
17-1 3.0% 66.4% 48.3% 18.1% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.0 35.0%
16-2 5.3% 49.5% 41.1% 8.4% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 14.2%
15-3 7.8% 35.9% 32.4% 3.4% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 5.0 5.1%
14-4 9.4% 27.0% 26.0% 1.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 6.8 1.3%
13-5 10.6% 19.5% 19.4% 0.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 8.5 0.2%
12-6 11.2% 15.1% 15.0% 0.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 9.5 0.1%
11-7 11.1% 10.9% 10.9% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 9.9
10-8 9.9% 8.4% 8.4% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 9.1
9-9 8.4% 5.7% 5.7% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 7.9
8-10 7.1% 4.7% 4.7% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 6.8
7-11 5.5% 2.7% 2.7% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5.3
6-12 4.0% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 3.9
5-13 2.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.7
4-14 1.6% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.6
3-15 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 17.6% 16.0% 1.6% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 2.3 4.0 3.8 2.5 1.6 1.3 82.4 1.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 98.5% 3.7 9.0 9.0 27.8 26.0 16.4 7.5 1.5 1.5