Preseason Rankings
Gonzaga
West Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+21.3#1
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace80.3#3
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+13.8#1
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+7.5#21
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 6.3% 6.4% 0.6%
#1 Seed 26.1% 26.2% 3.8%
Top 2 Seed 45.0% 45.2% 5.0%
Top 4 Seed 66.1% 66.3% 13.7%
Top 6 Seed 77.5% 77.7% 24.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 94.4% 94.5% 63.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.5% 86.8% 45.9%
Average Seed 3.7 3.7 7.5
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 95.1%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.8% 97.6%
Conference Champion 80.5% 80.6% 46.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.4% 1.4% 6.2%
First Round93.9% 94.0% 62.6%
Second Round82.5% 82.6% 39.6%
Sweet Sixteen60.6% 60.7% 23.7%
Elite Eight41.3% 41.5% 10.3%
Final Four27.2% 27.2% 5.5%
Championship Game17.3% 17.4% 2.4%
National Champion10.7% 10.7% 1.8%

Next Game: North Florida (Home) - 99.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 1 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 22 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 3
Quad 24 - 19 - 3
Quad 38 - 016 - 4
Quad 48 - 024 - 4


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 243   North Florida W 96-68 99.6%   
  Nov 11, 2022 25   Michigan St. W 86-78 76%    
  Nov 16, 2022 9   @ Texas W 75-74 55%    
  Nov 20, 2022 3   Kentucky W 84-81 59%    
  Nov 25, 2022 278   Portland St. W 97-69 99%    
  Dec 02, 2022 4   Baylor W 84-81 59%    
  Dec 05, 2022 120   Kent St. W 89-68 96%    
  Dec 09, 2022 89   Washington W 92-74 93%    
  Dec 12, 2022 294   Northern Illinois W 95-63 99.6%   
  Dec 16, 2022 22   Alabama W 92-85 73%    
  Dec 20, 2022 170   Montana W 89-65 97%    
  Dec 31, 2022 194   Pepperdine W 97-72 98%    
  Jan 05, 2023 83   @ San Francisco W 88-77 81%    
  Jan 07, 2023 127   @ Santa Clara W 94-79 89%    
  Jan 12, 2023 55   @ BYU W 86-77 75%    
  Jan 14, 2023 154   Portland W 95-72 97%    
  Jan 19, 2023 155   Loyola Marymount W 91-68 97%    
  Jan 21, 2023 228   @ Pacific W 91-70 95%    
  Jan 28, 2023 154   @ Portland W 92-75 91%    
  Feb 02, 2023 127   Santa Clara W 97-76 95%    
  Feb 04, 2023 44   @ St. Mary's W 77-70 72%    
  Feb 09, 2023 83   San Francisco W 91-74 91%    
  Feb 11, 2023 55   BYU W 89-74 88%    
  Feb 16, 2023 155   @ Loyola Marymount W 88-71 92%    
  Feb 18, 2023 194   @ Pepperdine W 94-75 93%    
  Feb 23, 2023 176   San Diego W 89-64 97%    
  Feb 25, 2023 44   St. Mary's W 80-67 85%    
  Mar 01, 2023 362   Chicago St. W 101-55 100.0%   
Projected Record 24 - 4 14 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 6.0 15.6 27.4 29.9 80.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.8 5.1 2.8 0.0 13.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.6 1.2 0.2 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.3 6.3 11.4 18.5 27.4 29.9 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 29.9    29.9
15-1 100.0% 27.4    25.3 2.2
14-2 84.6% 15.6    11.5 4.0 0.1
13-3 53.1% 6.0    3.0 2.5 0.5 0.0
12-4 21.1% 1.3    0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0
11-5 4.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 80.5% 80.5 70.2 9.3 0.9 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 29.9% 100.0% 75.1% 24.9% 1.6 17.4 8.4 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
15-1 27.4% 99.5% 64.2% 35.3% 2.7 7.6 7.7 4.9 3.5 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 98.5%
14-2 18.5% 97.7% 52.2% 45.5% 4.5 1.1 2.6 3.2 3.5 2.5 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 95.2%
13-3 11.4% 92.8% 42.9% 49.8% 6.5 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 87.3%
12-4 6.3% 81.7% 34.7% 47.0% 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 72.0%
11-5 3.3% 65.9% 28.8% 37.1% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 52.1%
10-6 1.8% 49.1% 22.4% 26.7% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 34.4%
9-7 0.8% 32.6% 20.3% 12.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 15.5%
8-8 0.4% 22.5% 16.3% 6.2% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 7.4%
7-9 0.2% 13.7% 13.7% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-10 0.1% 9.1% 9.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12 0.0% 0.0
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 94.4% 58.4% 36.0% 3.7 26.1 18.9 11.4 9.7 6.6 4.9 4.1 3.5 3.0 3.0 2.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.6 86.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.8% 100.0% 1.2 77.9 20.7 1.3 0.1 0.0