Preseason Rankings
Illinois
Big Ten
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+14.6#18
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.0#192
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+7.8#17
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#27
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.3% 1.3% 0.0%
#1 Seed 5.9% 5.9% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 12.6% 12.6% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 26.2% 26.3% 2.5%
Top 6 Seed 39.1% 39.2% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 65.6% 65.7% 16.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 61.3% 61.4% 12.0%
Average Seed 5.7 5.7 8.6
.500 or above 90.8% 91.0% 53.2%
.500 or above in Conference 78.2% 78.4% 37.9%
Conference Champion 18.3% 18.3% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.9% 1.8% 13.2%
First Four3.2% 3.2% 2.4%
First Round64.1% 64.3% 15.4%
Second Round46.8% 46.9% 6.5%
Sweet Sixteen25.6% 25.7% 3.3%
Elite Eight13.6% 13.6% 0.0%
Final Four7.0% 7.0% 0.0%
Championship Game3.5% 3.5% 0.0%
National Champion1.7% 1.7% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Illinois (Home) - 99.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 42 - 4
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 6
Quad 25 - 210 - 9
Quad 34 - 114 - 9
Quad 46 - 021 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 330   Eastern Illinois W 84-55 99.7%   
  Nov 11, 2022 289   UMKC W 82-57 99%    
  Nov 14, 2022 260   Monmouth W 81-58 98%    
  Nov 18, 2022 8   UCLA L 69-72 42%    
  Nov 25, 2022 355   Lindenwood W 89-55 99.8%   
  Nov 29, 2022 52   Syracuse W 78-70 74%    
  Dec 02, 2022 48   @ Maryland W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 06, 2022 9   Texas L 66-68 42%    
  Dec 10, 2022 66   Penn St. W 69-60 77%    
  Dec 17, 2022 341   Alabama A&M W 82-52 99%    
  Dec 22, 2022 70   Missouri W 73-67 69%    
  Dec 29, 2022 353   Bethune-Cookman W 86-52 99.7%   
  Jan 04, 2023 85   @ Northwestern W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 07, 2023 41   Wisconsin W 72-65 70%    
  Jan 10, 2023 98   @ Nebraska W 80-74 68%    
  Jan 13, 2023 25   Michigan St. W 75-71 63%    
  Jan 16, 2023 90   @ Minnesota W 72-67 66%    
  Jan 19, 2023 13   Indiana W 72-70 57%    
  Jan 24, 2023 36   Ohio St. W 74-68 67%    
  Jan 28, 2023 41   @ Wisconsin W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 31, 2023 98   Nebraska W 83-71 82%    
  Feb 04, 2023 29   @ Iowa L 77-78 47%    
  Feb 07, 2023 90   Minnesota W 75-64 81%    
  Feb 11, 2023 43   Rutgers W 71-64 70%    
  Feb 14, 2023 66   @ Penn St. W 66-63 59%    
  Feb 18, 2023 13   @ Indiana L 69-73 38%    
  Feb 23, 2023 85   Northwestern W 76-65 80%    
  Feb 26, 2023 36   @ Ohio St. L 70-71 49%    
  Mar 02, 2023 15   Michigan W 73-70 58%    
  Mar 05, 2023 24   @ Purdue L 71-73 43%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.8 3.6 4.9 4.1 2.5 0.9 18.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 2.8 4.4 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.0 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.2 4.3 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.0 2.0 0.4 0.0 10.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.5 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.3 3.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 2.5 1.9 0.4 0.0 5.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 4.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.0 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.1 2.5 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.1 14th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.8 2.7 3.9 5.2 6.3 7.7 8.8 9.7 10.3 9.9 9.2 7.9 6.7 4.5 2.5 0.9 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 99.2% 2.5    2.4 0.1
18-2 90.9% 4.1    3.5 0.6 0.0
17-3 72.5% 4.9    3.3 1.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 45.7% 3.6    1.7 1.6 0.3 0.0
15-5 19.1% 1.8    0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 18.3% 18.3 12.2 4.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 41.6% 58.4% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.5% 100.0% 30.9% 69.1% 1.4 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.5% 100.0% 26.7% 73.3% 1.9 1.8 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.7% 100.0% 21.4% 78.6% 2.7 1.2 2.2 1.9 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 7.9% 99.8% 18.1% 81.7% 3.6 0.4 1.4 2.2 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.7%
15-5 9.2% 98.8% 14.5% 84.3% 4.9 0.1 0.4 1.5 2.0 2.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 98.5%
14-6 9.9% 95.8% 11.8% 84.0% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.4 95.2%
13-7 10.3% 89.0% 9.8% 79.3% 7.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 2.0 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.1 87.9%
12-8 9.7% 73.2% 8.3% 64.8% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.6 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 0.0 2.6 70.7%
11-9 8.8% 52.9% 6.2% 46.7% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 4.1 49.8%
10-10 7.7% 29.5% 5.3% 24.2% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 25.6%
9-11 6.3% 12.7% 4.0% 8.7% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5 9.1%
8-12 5.2% 4.1% 2.8% 1.4% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.9 1.4%
7-13 3.9% 2.0% 1.8% 0.2% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.8 0.2%
6-14 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.6
5-15 1.8% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.7
4-16 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.0
3-17 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.6
2-18 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 65.6% 11.1% 54.5% 5.7 5.9 6.7 7.1 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.1 4.8 4.7 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 34.4 61.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 1.2 82.3 17.1 0.6