Preseason Rankings
Oakland
Horizon
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.9#214
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.1#143
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#167
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#256
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 15.8% 6.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.9 14.8
.500 or above 55.7% 67.4% 33.7%
.500 or above in Conference 71.9% 79.4% 57.6%
Conference Champion 15.0% 19.0% 7.5%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 1.2% 4.5%
First Four1.8% 1.6% 2.1%
First Round11.8% 14.9% 5.7%
Second Round1.1% 1.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Home) - 65.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 21 - 5
Quad 32 - 53 - 9
Quad 411 - 414 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 234   Bowling Green W 84-80 65%    
  Nov 13, 2022 38   Oklahoma St. L 67-78 17%    
  Nov 16, 2022 108   @ Toledo L 72-81 21%    
  Nov 19, 2022 226   Eastern Michigan W 78-74 64%    
  Nov 25, 2022 188   Long Beach St. L 78-79 46%    
  Dec 01, 2022 215   @ Cleveland St. L 72-75 40%    
  Dec 03, 2022 197   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 73-77 38%    
  Dec 06, 2022 52   @ Syracuse L 69-84 11%    
  Dec 18, 2022 77   @ Boise St. L 63-76 15%    
  Dec 21, 2022 25   @ Michigan St. L 65-83 7%    
  Dec 29, 2022 306   Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 77-67 78%    
  Dec 31, 2022 347   Green Bay W 76-62 88%    
  Jan 06, 2023 195   @ Northern Kentucky L 67-71 38%    
  Jan 08, 2023 171   @ Wright St. L 74-79 35%    
  Jan 12, 2023 277   Robert Morris W 78-71 72%    
  Jan 14, 2023 223   Youngstown St. W 77-73 61%    
  Jan 19, 2023 333   @ IUPUI W 71-65 69%    
  Jan 23, 2023 229   @ Detroit Mercy L 72-74 44%    
  Jan 27, 2023 223   @ Youngstown St. L 74-76 42%    
  Jan 29, 2023 277   @ Robert Morris W 75-74 54%    
  Feb 02, 2023 197   Purdue Fort Wayne W 76-74 57%    
  Feb 04, 2023 215   Cleveland St. W 75-72 60%    
  Feb 09, 2023 347   @ Green Bay W 73-65 75%    
  Feb 11, 2023 306   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 74-70 61%    
  Feb 17, 2023 333   IUPUI W 74-62 83%    
  Feb 17, 2023 229   Detroit Mercy W 75-71 62%    
  Feb 23, 2023 171   Wright St. W 77-76 53%    
  Feb 25, 2023 195   Northern Kentucky W 70-68 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 3.5 3.9 2.7 1.6 0.5 15.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.4 4.4 2.8 1.0 0.1 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 2.3 4.4 3.9 1.7 0.3 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 2.5 4.4 3.3 0.9 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.7 4.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 11.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 4.0 2.2 0.4 0.0 10.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.7 3.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 8.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.5 2.4 1.0 0.1 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.7 1.4 0.5 0.1 5.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.0 6.3 7.8 8.8 9.6 10.1 9.9 8.9 8.3 6.5 4.9 2.9 1.6 0.5 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.0
18-2 95.6% 2.7    2.5 0.3 0.0
17-3 78.8% 3.9    2.9 0.9 0.1
16-4 53.4% 3.5    1.9 1.3 0.3 0.0
15-5 25.5% 2.1    0.8 0.9 0.4 0.1
14-6 7.5% 0.7    0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1
13-7 1.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 15.0% 15.0 10.2 3.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 72.4% 63.2% 9.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 25.1%
19-1 1.6% 55.9% 52.8% 3.1% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 6.5%
18-2 2.9% 46.1% 45.2% 0.9% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.5 1.6%
17-3 4.9% 33.6% 33.5% 0.1% 13.4 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.3 0.2%
16-4 6.5% 28.9% 28.9% 0.1% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.0 4.6 0.1%
15-5 8.3% 21.3% 21.3% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.1 6.5
14-6 8.9% 15.6% 15.6% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.3 7.5
13-7 9.9% 12.2% 12.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 8.7
12-8 10.1% 8.4% 8.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 9.2
11-9 9.6% 5.6% 5.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.1
10-10 8.8% 4.0% 4.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 8.4
9-11 7.8% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.2 7.6
8-12 6.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.2
7-13 5.0% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 5.0
6-14 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-15 2.3% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.3
4-16 1.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.5
3-17 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9
2-18 0.4% 0.4
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.7% 12.5% 0.1% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.4 2.9 2.7 2.6 87.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 4.8 33.3 16.7 33.3 16.7
Lose Out 0.0%