Preseason Rankings
Oregon
Pac-12
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.1#26
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.1#139
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.3#13
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#58
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.0% 1.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 4.6% 4.6% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 9.9% 10.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 21.8% 21.8% 1.8%
Top 6 Seed 33.2% 33.2% 3.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 61.8% 61.9% 9.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 56.5% 56.6% 7.9%
Average Seed 6.2 6.2 7.2
.500 or above 87.4% 87.5% 41.5%
.500 or above in Conference 78.7% 78.8% 34.2%
Conference Champion 16.3% 16.3% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.3% 15.4%
First Four4.5% 4.5% 0.0%
First Round59.6% 59.7% 9.9%
Second Round41.0% 41.0% 7.7%
Sweet Sixteen20.9% 20.9% 0.0%
Elite Eight10.2% 10.2% 0.0%
Final Four4.8% 4.8% 0.0%
Championship Game2.2% 2.2% 0.0%
National Champion1.1% 1.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida A&M (Home) - 99.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 41 - 4
Quad 1b2 - 23 - 6
Quad 25 - 28 - 8
Quad 36 - 114 - 9
Quad 45 - 020 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 351   Florida A&M W 84-53 99.9%   
  Nov 11, 2022 143   UC Irvine W 76-61 91%    
  Nov 15, 2022 140   Montana St. W 81-67 90%    
  Nov 20, 2022 5   Houston L 67-69 43%    
  Nov 24, 2022 31   Connecticut W 72-71 52%    
  Dec 01, 2022 71   Washington St. W 75-67 74%    
  Dec 04, 2022 8   @ UCLA L 68-75 28%    
  Dec 10, 2022 126   Nevada W 85-72 85%    
  Dec 14, 2022 207   UC Riverside W 79-61 92%    
  Dec 17, 2022 154   Portland W 84-69 89%    
  Dec 20, 2022 156   Utah Valley W 79-64 89%    
  Jan 01, 2023 204   Oregon St. W 83-65 92%    
  Jan 05, 2023 59   @ Colorado W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 07, 2023 84   @ Utah W 74-71 60%    
  Jan 12, 2023 61   Arizona St. W 75-68 71%    
  Jan 14, 2023 12   Arizona W 81-80 51%    
  Jan 18, 2023 128   @ California W 71-64 72%    
  Jan 21, 2023 57   @ Stanford W 72-71 52%    
  Jan 26, 2023 59   Colorado W 76-69 70%    
  Jan 28, 2023 84   Utah W 77-68 76%    
  Feb 02, 2023 12   @ Arizona L 78-84 32%    
  Feb 04, 2023 61   @ Arizona St. W 72-71 53%    
  Feb 09, 2023 37   USC W 74-70 63%    
  Feb 11, 2023 8   UCLA L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 15, 2023 89   @ Washington W 77-73 61%    
  Feb 19, 2023 71   @ Washington St. W 72-70 56%    
  Feb 25, 2023 204   @ Oregon St. W 80-68 82%    
  Mar 02, 2023 128   California W 74-61 85%    
  Mar 04, 2023 57   Stanford W 74-68 70%    
Projected Record 20 - 9 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Pac-12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.5 3.3 4.4 3.6 2.2 0.9 16.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.1 5.0 4.4 2.0 0.4 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.9 4.9 2.8 0.7 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.2 1.6 4.1 4.3 1.8 0.3 0.0 12.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.9 3.6 1.1 0.1 10.4 5th
6th 0.2 1.6 3.3 2.5 0.8 0.1 8.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.8 2.3 0.5 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 5.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 3.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.7 3.7 5.2 6.5 7.8 8.8 10.1 10.4 10.4 9.6 8.3 6.4 4.0 2.2 0.9 Total



Pac-12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.9    0.9
19-1 100.0% 2.2    2.1 0.1
18-2 90.3% 3.6    3.0 0.6 0.0
17-3 68.5% 4.4    2.8 1.4 0.1
16-4 39.4% 3.3    1.5 1.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 15.7% 1.5    0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.9% 0.4    0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.3% 16.3 10.8 4.3 1.0 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.9% 100.0% 44.0% 56.0% 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 2.2% 100.0% 37.2% 62.8% 1.5 1.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
18-2 4.0% 100.0% 30.6% 69.4% 2.1 1.4 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 6.4% 99.9% 25.4% 74.5% 3.0 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
16-4 8.3% 99.4% 19.4% 80.0% 4.2 0.2 1.0 1.8 2.1 1.4 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.2%
15-5 9.6% 97.6% 16.6% 81.0% 5.6 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 97.2%
14-6 10.4% 91.8% 13.0% 78.9% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.8 90.6%
13-7 10.4% 81.5% 11.2% 70.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.7 1.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 1.9 79.1%
12-8 10.1% 64.1% 8.7% 55.4% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 3.6 60.7%
11-9 8.8% 41.6% 6.5% 35.1% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 37.5%
10-10 7.8% 22.4% 5.4% 17.0% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 17.9%
9-11 6.5% 8.0% 3.9% 4.2% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 4.3%
8-12 5.2% 3.4% 2.9% 0.4% 13.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 5.0 0.4%
7-13 3.7% 2.5% 2.4% 0.1% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 3.6 0.1%
6-14 2.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.6
5-15 1.6% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.6
4-16 0.9% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9
3-17 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.1% 0.1
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 61.8% 12.2% 49.6% 6.2 4.6 5.4 5.4 6.4 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.4 5.7 5.5 4.7 1.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 38.2 56.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 1.2 79.1 20.9