Preseason Rankings
Pacific
West Coast
2022-23
Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#228
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace69.7#124
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#237
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#208
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.3% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 3.5% 0.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 1.7% 0.1%
Average Seed 13.2 11.2 13.8
.500 or above 26.8% 63.1% 24.1%
.500 or above in Conference 18.0% 40.2% 16.3%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 32.2% 12.5% 33.7%
First Four0.4% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round0.9% 3.0% 0.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.6% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stanford (Away) - 7.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 41 - 8
Quad 33 - 64 - 14
Quad 48 - 412 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 57   @ Stanford L 62-78 7%    
  Nov 13, 2022 216   @ North Dakota St. L 68-72 36%    
  Nov 15, 2022 322   @ North Dakota W 75-71 64%    
  Nov 18, 2022 191   Cal St. Fullerton W 70-69 53%    
  Nov 22, 2022 267   Mount St. Mary's W 68-62 68%    
  Nov 25, 2022 342   Idaho W 81-68 86%    
  Nov 28, 2022 273   Cal Poly W 70-64 69%    
  Dec 01, 2022 232   @ UC Davis L 68-71 41%    
  Dec 03, 2022 129   @ UC Santa Barbara L 66-75 23%    
  Dec 06, 2022 320   Northern Arizona W 74-64 79%    
  Dec 12, 2022 99   Fresno St. L 61-66 33%    
  Dec 19, 2022 210   San Jose St. W 71-69 55%    
  Dec 20, 2022 301   @ Lamar W 71-69 58%    
  Dec 29, 2022 55   BYU L 68-78 23%    
  Dec 31, 2022 155   Loyola Marymount L 71-72 48%    
  Jan 05, 2023 176   @ San Diego L 66-72 33%    
  Jan 07, 2023 194   @ Pepperdine L 73-78 35%    
  Jan 14, 2023 127   Santa Clara L 75-78 41%    
  Jan 19, 2023 83   @ San Francisco L 67-80 15%    
  Jan 21, 2023 1   Gonzaga L 70-91 5%    
  Jan 28, 2023 127   @ Santa Clara L 72-81 24%    
  Feb 02, 2023 194   Pepperdine W 76-75 53%    
  Feb 04, 2023 55   @ BYU L 65-81 11%    
  Feb 09, 2023 154   @ Portland L 71-78 30%    
  Feb 11, 2023 176   San Diego W 69-68 51%    
  Feb 16, 2023 83   San Francisco L 70-77 29%    
  Feb 18, 2023 155   @ Loyola Marymount L 68-75 30%    
  Feb 23, 2023 44   @ St. Mary's L 57-74 9%    
  Feb 25, 2023 154   Portland L 74-75 48%    
Projected Record 12 - 17 5 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.0 4.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.9 2.5 1.1 0.2 0.0 6.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.0 3.4 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.8 4.3 1.3 0.1 10.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.9 5.3 1.3 0.1 12.6 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 6.1 6.2 1.5 0.1 15.5 8th
9th 0.4 3.4 7.7 5.9 1.3 0.0 18.7 9th
10th 3.5 6.8 7.4 4.1 0.9 0.0 22.7 10th
Total 3.5 7.2 10.9 13.4 13.8 13.1 11.2 9.0 6.9 4.8 3.0 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 79.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-2 56.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-3 17.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-4 3.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-6 0.0%
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0
15-1 0.0% 69.7% 16.2% 53.5% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.9%
14-2 0.1% 31.0% 16.0% 14.9% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 17.8%
13-3 0.4% 29.9% 6.5% 23.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 25.1%
12-4 0.9% 10.7% 5.1% 5.7% 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.0%
11-5 1.7% 5.0% 3.8% 1.2% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.2%
10-6 3.0% 3.9% 3.7% 0.2% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.9 0.2%
9-7 4.8% 2.3% 2.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
8-8 6.9% 1.5% 1.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.8
7-9 9.0% 1.4% 1.4% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.9
6-10 11.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 11.1
5-11 13.1% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 13.1
4-12 13.8% 0.4% 0.4% 15.9 0.0 0.1 13.7
3-13 13.4% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.4
2-14 10.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.9
1-15 7.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.2
0-16 3.5% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
Total 100% 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 98.9 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%